Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
Dallas-Fort Worth MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts
How We Got Here
DFW spent 2024 to 2025 digesting a delivery wave; by Q3 2026 the construction pipeline had shrunk to 29,700 units, down 28.6% year over year [1].
Demand caught up: 26,700 units absorbed year to date through Q3, up 27.7% year over year and outpacing deliveries [1].
Financing tightened first: agency 5-year money quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26 while the DFW average cap rate was 5.25% in H1 [2][3].
The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [4].
The 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1 before easing to 4.94% on Oct 30 [5][6].
Where We Are Now
DFW conventional occupancy is 88.1% in October, up 1.1% year over year, and effective rent of $1,511 turned positive, up 0.2% [7].
Concessions remain part of the lease-up reality: 49% of conventional properties offer them, with the average package at 8.9% of rent [7].
Negative leverage persists: DFW average cap rate 5.25% in H1 versus agency 5-year debt at 6.38% on Oct 26 [3][2].
Vacancy fell to 9.4% in Q3, a second straight quarterly decline [1].
Population is still the offset: DFW grew 1.5% to 8.48 million residents in the 2025 metro estimate [8].
Texas momentum cooled: year-to-date job growth slowed to 0.8% through September, and the Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19 [9].
Where We're Headed
The next Fed decision is Dec 9, and futures price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike [10].
The rate floor stays high: 10-year Treasury 4.94% on Oct 30, 30-year mortgage 7.24% in the week of Oct 29, SOFR 3.95% on Oct 30 [6][11][12].
Supply keeps thinning: U.S. construction is below 480K units, the lowest nominal level since 2015, while DFW's pipeline is down 28.6% year over year [13][1].
U.S. vacancy fell to 8.6% in Q3, the third consecutive quarterly decline, with absorption near 350K year to date [13].
Global yields eased: UK 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2, Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, ECB deposit rate 2.50% on Nov 2 [14][15][16][17].
What It Means for Dallas
Refinance math has reset. DFW owners with 2026 or 2027 maturities should model agency debt near 6.38% from Oct 26, a 10-year Treasury at 4.94% on Oct 30, and SOFR at 3.95% on Oct 30, not a quick return to lower coupons [2][6][12].
Negative leverage is wider. DFW's average cap rate is 5.25% in H1 against agency 5-year debt at 6.38% on Oct 26, more than a point underwater. Deals still need low basis, low leverage, or strong conviction on the rent turn [3][2].
Fundamentals are turning. DFW conventional occupancy reached 88.1% in October and rent growth turned positive at 0.2%. Absorption of 26,700 units through Q3 outpaced a shrinking pipeline, but 49% of properties still offer concessions[7][1].
Buyers are stepping back in. Five conventional deals were reported in 60 days, including the 490-unit 75 West acquisition and a 432-unit South Dallas refinancing, with buyers targeting newer vintage communities across the metroplex [18][19].
Texas cooling tempers DFW demand. Texas job growth slowed to 0.8% year to date through September, and the Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19. Slower state hiring takes some edge off DFW's absorption recovery [9].
National rates set DFW's floor. For DFW, the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00% hold on Oct 28, a 10-year Treasury at 4.94%, a 30-year mortgage at 7.24%, and futures pricing a 75% chance of a Dec 9 hike mean financing relief is not the base case [4][6][11][10].
Global yields reach DFW loans. DFW borrowing costs still face pressure from abroad: UK gilts 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2, Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, and the ECB deposit rate 2.50% on Nov 2 [14][15][16][17].
DFW Multifamily
DFW's rebalance crossed into a demand surplus. Conventional occupancy reached 88.1% in October, up 1.1% year over year, and effective rent of $1,511 turned positive, up 0.2% [7]. Year-to-date absorption of 26,700 units is up 27.7%, while the construction pipeline shrank to 29,700 units, down 28.6% [1]. Vacancy fell to 9.4% in Q3, a second straight quarterly decline [1]. Rents are stabilizing as supply thins.
DFW vacancy fell to 9.4% in Q3, second straight quarterly decline [1]
Supply pressure by DFW submarket
49% of conventional properties offer concessions, up 7.3% year over year [7]
Average concession package 8.9% of rent, up 12.3% year over year [7]
Submarket rent trend, trailing 12 months
Uptown/Downtown/Park Cities +6.3%; South Arlington +4.4%; East Dallas +3.9% [7]
Urban core leading; South Fort Worth and Las Colinas each +3.7% [7]
DFW Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep Census BPS [25]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
Arlington
$1,249
-2.8%
812
684
+12%
Carrollton
$1,478
-1.5%
1,150
0
-100%
Dallas
$1,321
-0.6%
4,883
3,162
-14%
Denton
$1,207
-3.5%
2,508
979
-48%
Fort Worth
$1,337
-0.8%
3,348
5,226
+108%
Frisco
$1,727
-3.0%
4,562
660
-81%
Garland
$1,281
-3.4%
48
498
+13x
Grand Prairie
$1,382
-0.9%
240
891
+395%
Irving
$1,432
+1.4%
30
427
+18x
McKinney
$1,482
-4.2%
1,391
1,179
+13%
Mesquite
$1,240
-2.2%
0
0
None in 2025 or 2026
Plano
$1,609
-2.3%
175
611
+366%
DFW Transactions and Deal Flow
Five conventional apartment transactions were reported across the metroplex in the last 60 days: three acquisitions, one refinancing and one joint-venture purchase. The largest was the 490-unit 75 West in North Dallas, acquired by a Machine Investment Group and RPM Living Investments joint venture [18]. Nitya Capital refinanced the 432-unit Interlace Apartments in South Dallas [19], and buyers closed on newer vintage communities in Arlington, Denton and Red Oak [26][27][28].
Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [2]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [6][5]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [12]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven[29].
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
Texas lost momentum in the third quarter. Payrolls fell in September, pulling year-to-date job growth to 0.8%, well below the state's 2% long-run average [9]. The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19, from 1.7% in August [9]. Manufacturing wage pressure also reversed, with the Dallas Fed index falling to 20.8 in October from 27.4 [34]. Slower state hiring tempers the demand tailwind behind DFW's absorption recovery.
The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [4]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [6], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [40]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [41]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [10].
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [6][11][44]
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [6], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [14], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [15] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [16]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [4], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [17]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [6][14][15][16]
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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