Monthly multifamily market intelligence for College Station-Bryan, with Texas, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
August 2026
College Station-Bryan MSA. Multifamily
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The Week in Three Parts
How We Got Here
Texas A&M passed 80,000 students in fall 2025 (81,354 system-wide; more than 74,000 on the College Station campus, up almost 2,000), and then announced a five- to seven-year plan to slow enrollment growth [191].
Developers responded to the enrollment run-up with purpose-built student towers near Northgate; a 19-story tower was scheduled to complete in summer 2026 [192].
Nationally, construction fell to 3.5% of inventory, the lowest since 2013 [28].
Agency loan rates bottomed near 5.56% in early June [3] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from about 4.2% to 4.68% [1][14].
Texas job growth returned to its 2% trend in the first half of 2026 after a flat 2025 (0.1%) [8][48].
Where We Are Now
Rents are mixed by tracker: Apartment List puts the College Station median at $1,256, down 2.2% year over year; RentCafe puts the average at $1,791, up 1.3% [193][194]. Rents move with the academic calendar.
Local jobs are flat: 143,700 employed in July 2026, up 300 from a year earlier, with unemployment at 4.3% versus 4.1% a year ago [195].
Brazos County appraisals rose about 10% overall in 2026; the appraisal district's published cap rate range for income housing is 6.5 to 8.5% [196][197].
Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in June [36][37]. SOFR is 3.65% [35].
Institutional capital is present: a PCCP and Dinerstein joint venture bought two adjacent student communities totaling 1,128 beds on Harvey Mitchell Parkway in June, rebranding them Sterling College Station [198].
No allowed source publishes a metro-wide apartment vacancy or absorption figure for College Station-Bryan this period; those slots are marked accordingly rather than estimated.
Where We're Headed
Rates: futures markets price two quarter-point increases (Sep 16 and Dec) [18]. If they happen, agency fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.5 to 6.7% by year-end [1][4].
Supply: the next wave is dated 2028. Rambler Northgate (24 stories, 342 units) started in April 2026 for June 2028; Ariza Summit Crossing (12 buildings) targets June 2028; Knoxwood Crossing adds 60 workforce units for $21 million [199][200]. A $125 million high-rise near campus and the six-story "Langley" student project are proposed [192][201].
Demand: the enrollment cap plan means the student base grows more slowly than the 2019 to 2025 run; the MSA population is 287,476 (2025), Brazos County 249,088 [202].
Texas employment forecast is 2.0% (range 1.5 to 2.5%) [9]; locally, payrolls grew 0.2% over the past year [195].
Net: College Station-Bryan is a university-anchored market with a 2028 supply date and a slowing enrollment curve. The published cap rate range of 6.5 to 8.5% is the widest positive spread over agency debt of any market we cover, which is why institutional student-housing buyers are active [197][198][4].
What It Means for College Station
The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.68% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.25 to 6.75% [1][17][18].
Positive leverage is available here. Brazos CAD's published 6.5 to 8.5% cap rate range for income housing sits above 6.20% agency debt [197][4], unlike every large metro in this report.
Demand is the university, and the university is slowing on purpose. 81,354 students in fall 2025, then a multi-year plan to slow growth [191]. Underwrite flat to low-single-digit bed growth.
The next supply wave lands in 2028. Rambler Northgate and Ariza Summit Crossing both target June 2028 [199][200]; 2026 to 2027 deliveries are limited to projects already leasing (Azura was 100% leased by April) [200].
Data is thin; read the sources. No allowed source publishes metro vacancy or absorption this period, and rent trackers disagree (-2.2% vs. +1.3%) [193][194]. Appraisals are up about 10% [196].
College Station-Bryan Multifamily
College Station-Bryan is a university-anchored market: Texas A&M passed 80,000 students in fall 2025 and then moved to slow enrollment growth. Rent trackers disagree on direction (Apartment List -2.2%, RentCafe +1.3%), local payrolls are flat, and the next large deliveries are dated 2028. Brazos CAD's published 6.5 to 8.5% cap rate range for income housing is the one market in this report where cap rates clear agency debt.
Cap rate range (income housing)
6.5 to 8.5%
Brazos CAD published range; no market average published
College Station-Bryan Cap Rate Range by Asset Class
Where deals are clearing. Hover each range.
Cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Brazos Central Appraisal District, 2026 low and moderate income housing capitalization rate [197]. Class-level and market-average figures are not published; the bars show the single published range.
College Station-Bryan vs. National Fundamentals
Hover a bar. Negative means rents are falling.
College StationUnited States
Sources: Apartment List [193]; RentCafe [194]; CBRE [26]; Cushman and Wakefield [27].
Enrollment growth to slow under a five- to seven-year plan [191]
Bed demand growth moderates
Proposed
$125M high-rise near campus; six-story "Langley" student project in College Oaks; 7-acre multifamily site at Turkey Creek Road [192][201]
City approvals moving through Bryan and College Station councils
Price trend
Brazos County appraisals up about 10% overall in 2026 [196]
Transaction pricing not published
College Station Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the College Station-Bryan, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Jul 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Jun Census BPS [208]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
Bryan
$1,309
+0.1%
0
135
n/a, no 2025 permits
College Station
$1,256
-2.2%
455
392
+72%
College Station-Bryan Transactions and Deal Flow
Institutional student-housing capital is active. The largest reported 2026 trade is the PCCP and Dinerstein joint venture's purchase of two adjacent communities totaling 1,128 beds, now Sterling College Station [198]. No sales were reported by allowed sources in the last 30 days.
Property
Submarket
Units
Buyer / Seller
Price / Cap
Reported
2818 Apartments and Parkway Place (now Sterling College Station)
Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. Low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-to-high 5s as of Aug 24; higher-leverage quotes are in the low 6s. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed. Hover the points.
Sources: Select Commercial [3]; Apartment Loan Store [4]. Different quote sources; treat as indicative.
Lending Landscape
Programs, caps, and terms relevant to College Station owners.
The Texas economy strengthened in the second quarter. Employment grew at a 1.9% annualized pace in the first half after a flat 2025 (0.1%), hiring accelerated in June and July, and the Dallas Fed raised its full-year forecast to 2.0%. Wage pressure is broadening: manufacturers report 4.8% wage growth, the fastest since 2023.
Supports Houston and Permian jobs; indirect College Station benefit
Peer metros (Q2 2026)
Austin rents +1.3% in Q2, first gain since 2022 [45]. Houston vacancy 7.1%, rents -2.3% [46]. DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% [22]
College Station follows the academic calendar more than the Texas cycle
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Markets are now pricing two quarter-point increases, September and December. The 10-year Treasury finished Aug 14 at 4.68%.
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury [1]; Select Commercial / Apartment Loan Store (Aug 21) [3][4]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower.
10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today
Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [205] and MORTGAGE30US [206], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-08-26).
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved higher this month as traders scaled back expectations for 2026 rate cuts. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply risk, which helps Texas producers but adds to inflation.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: ETF Trends / U.S. Treasury (Aug 14) [1]; Trading Economics [14]; FXStreet [15]; Euronews (Aug 17) [39]. UK and Germany approximate.
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into College Station borrowing costs.
Disclosures. Compiled Aug 24, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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