Monthly multifamily market intelligence for Denver, with Colorado, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
August 2026
Denver MSA. Multifamily
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The Week in Three Parts
How We Got Here
Denver's 2024 delivery record of 18,558 units drove rents down 6.2% year over year by Q3 2025, the trough for the cycle [150].
Nationally, construction fell to 3.5% of inventory, the lowest since 2013 [28].
Agency loan rates bottomed near 5.56% in early June [3] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from about 4.2% to 4.68% [1][14].
The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them [17][18].
Denver ranked tenth nationally in 2025 transactions: $3.1 billion across 60 properties and 12,368 units [121].
Where We Are Now
The turn is sharp: vacancy dropped from 6.84% to 5.74% in Q2, the lowest in more than a year [150].
Q2 absorption of 5,902 units, up 58% year over year, was nearly three times the 2,020 delivered [150].
Rents are still negative, -4.7% year over year (Matthews) or -3.6% (Yardi), but improving for three straight quarters [150][180].
Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in June [36][37]. SOFR is 3.65% [35].
Pricing: cap rates average about 5.6% [181], negative leverage of about 60 basis points against 6.20% agency debt [4].
Supply is collapsing: 15,493 units under construction, the lowest in at least five years; trailing completions down 43% to 9,201 [150].
Where We're Headed
Rates: futures markets price two quarter-point increases (Sep 16 and Dec) [18]. If they happen, agency fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.5 to 6.7% by year-end [1][4].
Supply: with absorption near three times deliveries and the pipeline at a five-year low, Denver's rent decline should end by early 2027 on the current pace [150][182].
Colorado job growth is forecast at 0.6% in 2026 (about 17,500 jobs) after 0.4% in 2025 [183]; metro population grew 1.1% to about 3.0 million [184].
Policy: 2026 Colorado landlord laws cap security deposits at one month and create a receivership mechanism for multifamily; long-time owners cite the rules as a reason to sell [185][186].
Net: Denver is the clearest inflection in the group. Fundamentals turned in Q2; pricing has not yet. Deals like Fox Hill at $209K per unit are being struck before rents recover [186].
What It Means for Denver
The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.68% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.25 to 6.75% [1][17][18].
The sharpest turn in the group. Vacancy down 110 basis points in one quarter to 5.74% on absorption nearly triple deliveries [150].
Rents lag. Still -3.6 to -4.7% year over year but improving for three quarters; the 2027 crossover is the underwriting case [150][180].
Pipeline at a five-year low. 15,493 units underway, completions down 43% [150].
Regulation is pushing sellers. New 2026 landlord-tenant rules and receivership powers; Monarch sold Fox Hill after 28 years citing renter laws [185][186]. Property tax is flat in the 2026 intervening year [187].
Denver Multifamily
Denver is the sharpest inflection in the top 10. Vacancy fell from 6.84% to 5.74% in a single quarter as absorption ran nearly three times deliveries, and the construction pipeline is at a five-year low. Rents are still down 3.6 to 4.7% year over year, but the decline has narrowed for three straight quarters. Cap rates near 5.6% have not yet moved.
Sources: Apartment Loan Store [181]; Commercial Real Estate Direct [186]; Mile High CRE [188]. Class splits are interpolated around the published average.
The largest cities in the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Jul 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Jun Census BPS [208]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
Aurora
$1,519
-5.5%
405
210
+4%
Broomfield
$1,973
-3.0%
880
19
-96%
Castle Rock
$1,696
+0.4%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Commerce City
$2,453
-0.4%
443
0
-100%
Englewood
$1,452
-4.2%
42
0
-100%
Golden
$1,704
-6.3%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Greenwood Village
$1,996
+0.5%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Lakewood
$1,617
-4.8%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Littleton
$1,594
-2.2%
1,003
422
-16%
Northglenn
$1,541
-4.9%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Parker
$1,914
-3.6%
813
0
-100%
Westminster
$1,657
-3.2%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Denver Transactions and Deal Flow
Denver is repricing ahead of its rent recovery. August's headline trade was Fox Hill in Golden at $209,150 per unit, sold by a 28-year owner who cited Colorado's new renter laws [186].
Property
Submarket
Units
Buyer / Seller
Price / Cap
Reported
Fox Hill Apartments
Golden
153
Sierra Parkway Communities (Las Vegas); seller Monarch Investment and Management Group
Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. Low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-to-high 5s as of Aug 24; higher-leverage quotes are in the low 6s. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed. Hover the points.
Sources: Select Commercial [3]; Apartment Loan Store [4]. Different quote sources; treat as indicative.
Lending Landscape
Programs, caps, and terms relevant to Denver owners.
Colorado's economy is growing slowly. The Leeds School of Business projects 0.6% job growth in 2026, about 17,500 jobs, after 0.4% in 2025, well short of the 1.2% economists expected a year earlier. Labor constraints are the stated reason. Metro Denver population grew 1.1%. The 2026 landlord-tenant laws are the operating change owners are reacting to.
Denver has the weakest rents and the strongest quarterly absorption of the group
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Markets are now pricing two quarter-point increases, September and December. The 10-year Treasury finished Aug 14 at 4.68%.
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury [1]; Select Commercial / Apartment Loan Store (Aug 21) [3][4]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower.
10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today
Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [205] and MORTGAGE30US [206], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-08-26).
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved higher this month as traders scaled back expectations for 2026 rate cuts. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply risk, which adds to inflation.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: ETF Trends / U.S. Treasury (Aug 14) [1]; Trading Economics [14]; FXStreet [15]; Euronews (Aug 17) [39]. UK and Germany approximate.
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into Denver borrowing costs.
Disclosures. Compiled Aug 24, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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