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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for Miami, with Florida, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
August 2026
Miami MSA. Multifamily
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The Week in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • South Florida rents ran up 30%-plus in 2021 to 2022, then a delivery wave and slowing migration flattened them; trailing 12-month absorption of 7,608 units has nearly matched 7,847 delivered [145].
  • Nationally, construction fell to 3.5% of inventory, the lowest since 2013 [28].
  • Agency loan rates bottomed near 5.56% in early June [3] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from about 4.2% to 4.68% [1][14].
  • The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them [17][18].
  • Miami ranked sixth nationally in 2025 transactions: $3.6 billion across 56 properties at $261,309 per unit [121].

Where We Are Now

  • Rents are flat to slightly up: $2,380 to $2,526 per unit depending on tracker, +0.2% trailing three months, with two consecutive positive quarters [145][146]. Submarkets diverge: Overtown +12.8%, Miami Beach +9.7%; Brickell, Homestead and Little Haiti down [146].
  • Occupancy 94.6% (MMG), up 10 basis points; Colliers stabilized occupancy 95% [147][148].
  • Pricing is high and cap rates low: about 5.0% at $325,921 per unit, up 15.7% year over year (Colliers Q1) [148].
  • Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in June [36][37]. SOFR is 3.65% [35].
  • Pricing gap: 5.0% vs. agency 5-year debt at 6.20% [4], negative leverage of about 120 basis points, the widest with Charlotte.
  • Supply is still large: 15,481 units under construction, 7.3% of inventory, though starts fell to 6,813 from 8,592 [145].

Where We're Headed

  • Rates: futures markets price two quarter-point increases (Sep 16 and Dec) [18]. If they happen, agency fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.5 to 6.7% by year-end [1][4].
  • Supply: the 7.3% pipeline means hopes for near-term supply relief have faded; Bisnow reports sales volume nose-diving as a result [149].
  • Florida job growth slowed to 1.2% in 2025 and is forecast at 0.6 to 0.8% for 2026, with unemployment rising toward 4.3% [151]; metro population growth has slowed to 0.9% [152].
  • Insurance is finally easing: American Coastal reports Florida commercial property premiums down 16.6% year over year through Q1 2026 [153].
  • Net: Miami is priced like a growth market while growth slows. Buyers who paid up in 2021 are exiting near breakeven, as Milestone did on Emerald Palms [154]; the entry point is better than it was.

What It Means for Miami

  1. The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.68% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.25 to 6.75% [1][17][18].
  2. Priced for growth that is slowing. Cap rates near 5.0% and $326K per unit [148] against flat rents and 0.6 to 0.8% state job growth [151].
  3. Supply relief is not coming yet. 15,481 units under construction, 7.3% of inventory, the largest pipeline relative to stock among the metros we cover [145].
  4. 2021 buyers are exiting flat. Milestone sold the 505-unit Emerald Palms to Harbor Group for $109 million, $2 million above its 2021 price [154].
  5. Insurance has turned. Commercial property premiums down 16.6% year over year [153]; Miami-Dade taxable value growth slowed to 5.5% [155].

Miami Multifamily

Miami is a high-priced market in a holding pattern. Rents are flat to slightly positive, occupancy about 94.6 to 95%, and absorption has nearly matched deliveries over the past year. The pipeline is still 7.3% of inventory, cap rates sit near 5.0%, and Florida's job and population growth are slowing. The one clear improvement is insurance, which is finally falling.

Average cap rate
~5.0%
$325,921 per unit, +15.7% YoY (Q1)
Colliers South Florida [148]
Rent growth
+0.2%
Trailing 3 months; asking rent $2,526
Yardi Matrix June 2026 [146]
Occupancy
94.6%
Up 10 bp YoY; stabilized 95% (Colliers)
MMG Q2 / Colliers Q1 [147][148]
Population growth
+0.9%
Metro 6.37M in 2025
Census via MacroTrends [152]

Miami Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Where deals are clearing. Hover each range.
4%5%6%7% Class A 4.4 to 4.9% Class B 4.9 to 5.5% Class C 5.6 to 6.4% avg 5.0% debt 6.20%
Cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Colliers [148]; MMG [147]; Commercial Observer [154]. Class splits are interpolated around the published average.

Miami vs. National Fundamentals

Hover a bar. Negative means rents are falling.
Rent growth, year over year 0%-2%-4%+2% Miami +0.2% U.S. -1.1% Vacancy 0%5%10%15% Miami 5.0 to 6.2% U.S. 7.2 to 8.9%
MiamiUnited States
Sources: MMG [147]; Colliers [148]; Yardi Matrix [146]; Apartment List [25]; CBRE [26].

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Miami

The delivery wave is ending.
MetricNationalMiamiRead-through
Deliveries382,000 projected for 2026 [28]2,649 units through April, 0.7% of stock; 7,847 trailing 12 months [145][146]Inventory growth to slow in 2026 [156]
Under construction3.5% of inventory [28]15,481 units, 7.3% of inventory [145]Starts down to 6,813 from 8,592 [145]
Absorption vs. deliveries362K vs 358K, four quarters [27]7,608 absorbed vs. 7,847 delivered, trailing 12 months [145]Near equilibrium across all 16 submarkets
2026 outlookPeak then tighten [29]Supply relief hopes fading; sales slowing [149]Cap rates steady near 5.0% [148]
Supply pressure by submarketRents up in Overtown (+12.8%) and Miami Beach (+9.7%); down in Brickell, Homestead, Opa-locka, Little Haiti [146]Urban core diverging from the delivery-heavy west and south
Price trend$325,921 per unit, +15.7% YoY (Colliers Q1) [148]Priced for growth

Miami Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Jul 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Jul 2026 [207]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [207]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [208]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Jun
Census BPS [208]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Boca Raton$2,424+0.1%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Boynton Beach$1,923+2.9%392336+71%
Coral Springs$1,944-1.0%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Doral$2,313-1.7%412380+84%
Fort Lauderdale$1,905+1.2%1,05264-88%
Hollywood$1,510-2.7%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Miami$1,924-0.9%6,8631,471-57%
North Miami$1,507+2.2%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Pembroke Pines$1,875-0.6%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Plantation$2,079-1.9%8297+73x
Sunrise$1,973-1.1%00n/a, no 2025 permits
West Palm Beach$1,781+3.4%0415n/a, no 2025 permits

Miami Transactions and Deal Flow

August in South Florida was a month of institutional exits at flat prices: Harbor Group bought the 505-unit Emerald Palms from Milestone for $109 million, only $2 million above what Milestone paid five years ago [154].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Emerald Palms ApartmentsKendall / near Zoo Miami505Harbor Group International; seller Milestone Group$109M; about $215,800 per unitAug 6, 2026 [154]
Two multifamily complexesSouth FloridaStarwood Property Trust$63.8M combined ($34M and $29.8M)Aug 2026 [157]
Apartment complexSouth FloridaAmerican Landmark$65MAug 2026 [157]
Full-block development siteMiamiAvalonBay Communities$22M, landAug 2026 [158]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. Low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-to-high 5s as of Aug 24; higher-leverage quotes are in the low 6s. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed. Hover the points.
6.4% 6.0% 5.6% 5.2% Jun 4 Jul 27 Aug 21 5.56% 5.70% 6.20%
Sources: Select Commercial [3]; Apartment Loan Store [4]. Different quote sources; treat as indicative.

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to Miami owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA [5]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA [5]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (indicative)6.20%Aug 21 [4]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.45-5.85% / 5.53-5.93% / 5.59-5.99%BWE, Aug 24 [40]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.77-5.92% / 5.83-5.98% / 5.81-5.96%BWE, Aug 24 [40]
Max LTV / min DSCRUp to 80% LTV on small-balance loans; best pricing at 60 to 65% LTV and 1.30 to 1.35xSelect Commercial [3]; BWE [40]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 5.9 to 6.9%)Crittenden [41]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.6 to 8.1%)RRA Capital [42]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.24% to 12.75%Janover [6]
30-year home mortgage (context)6.65%Freddie Mac PMMS, Aug 20 [7]

Florida

Florida's growth is decelerating. Payroll job growth slowed to 1.2% in 2025 and UCF projects 0.6 to 0.8% for 2026, with unemployment rising from 3.8% toward 4.3%. Miami metro population growth has slowed to 0.9%. The offset is cost: commercial property insurance premiums are falling for the first time in years.

Florida job growth, 2025
1.2%
Slowed from prior years
UCF Winter 2026 Forecast [151]
2026 forecast
0.6 to 0.8%
UCF; averages 0.6% through 2029
UCF [151]
Unemployment path
3.8% to 4.3%
2025 to 2026 forecast
UCF [151]
Insurance premiums
-16.6%
FL commercial property, YoY through Q1 2026 (American Coastal)
FSResidential [153]

Florida Job Growth

Annual. Hover bars.
0%1%2% Florida 2025 1.2% Florida 2026 fcst 0.8% U.S. 2026 fcst 0.5% Texas 2026 fcst 2%
Sources: UCF Institute for Economic Forecasting [151]; Dallas Fed [9].

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Miami net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceFlorida commercial property premiums down 16.6% YoY through Q1 2026; associations still spend 25 to 35% of budgets on insurance [153]First relief after four years of increases
Property taxMiami-Dade 2026 taxable value $540.7B, +5.5%, 3.2 points slower than 2025 [155]Assessment growth decelerating with the market
Population and migrationMetro 6.37M in 2025, +0.9%; city 489,812 [152]Slowest growth since the pandemic surge
Key sectorStatewide payrolls +1.2% in 2025; Central Florida expected to lead the state in 2026 [151]Miami growth now below the state average
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Atlanta vacancy 7.2%, rents -1.0% [82]. Charlotte vacancy 4.0%, rents +12.1% [99]. DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% [22]Miami is the highest-priced Sun Belt market with the flattest rents

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Markets are now pricing two quarter-point increases, September and December. The 10-year Treasury finished Aug 14 at 4.68%.

10-Year Treasury
4.68%
Up from about 4.2% earlier in 2026
U.S. Treasury, Aug 14 [1]
Fed Funds Target
3.50 to 3.75%
Held Jul 29. Three votes to raise
Federal Reserve [17]
SOFR
3.65%
Aug 21. Up from 3.61% in June
NY Fed / FRED, Aug 21 [2][35]
Next Fed Meeting
Sep 15 to 16
Market pricing a quarter-point increase
Federal Reserve [17]; CNBC [18]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.7%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Jun PCE 3.7% (core 3.3%)
BLS, Aug 12 [36]; BEA, Jul 30 [37]

The Rate Stack: How a Miami Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.625% +1.05% +1.52% spread 10-year Treasury 4.68% Agency 5-year 6.20% 0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury [1]; Select Commercial / Apartment Loan Store (Aug 21) [3][4]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower.

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
10-Year Treasury
4.70%
Daily close, 2026-08-24
FRED DGS10 [205]
30-Year Mortgage
6.65%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of 2026-08-20
FRED MORTGAGE30US [206]
Spread, latest month
1.99 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
FRED, monthly averages [205][206]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024 Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [205] and MORTGAGE30US [206], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-08-26).

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher this month as traders scaled back expectations for 2026 rate cuts. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply risk, which adds to inflation.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0% 2% 4% 6% United States 4.68% United Kingdom ~4.6% Germany ~2.9% Japan 2.88%
Sources: ETF Trends / U.S. Treasury (Aug 14) [1]; Trading Economics [14]; FXStreet [15]; Euronews (Aug 17) [39]. UK and Germany approximate.

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into Miami borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Miami cares
European Central BankOn hold. Virtually no further cuts pricedKeeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandExpected quarter-point cut to 4.00%Gilt yields still rising, an inflation worry
Bank of JapanJGB 10-year at 2.88%, highest since 1996 [39]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Hormuz supply riskMinus for inflation and Fed posture; no local energy offset
U.S. dollarIndex 98.55 on Aug 22, lowest since May; down 2.5% over the month [38]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: Trading Economics [14]; FXStreet [15]; Business Standard / Reuters [16].

Sources

Show the 47 sources cited in this edition
  1. ETF Trends: Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 14, 2026; U.S. Treasury: Daily Par Yield Curve
  2. FRED: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR); DGS10
  3. Select Commercial: Freddie Mac Multifamily Loan Rates (7/27/2026)
  4. Apartment Loan Store: Multifamily Loan Rates 08/21/2026
  5. FHFA: 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps
  6. Janover: Multifamily Mortgage Rates
  7. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey
  8. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas employment forecast strengthens (Jul 17, 2026)
  9. Trading Economics: Global Bond Selloff Deepens on 2026 Rate Repricing
  10. FXStreet: EUR/GBP ahead of BoE decision
  11. Business Standard / Reuters: Oil price and bonds
  12. Federal Reserve: FOMC Minutes, July 28 to 29, 2026
  13. CNBC: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady (Jul 29, 2026); Cambridge Currencies: Next FOMC 16 Sept 2026
  14. CRE Daily: Dallas Multifamily Rents Slide in 2026
  15. Apartment List: National Rent Report
  16. CBRE: Q1 2026 U.S. Multifamily Figures
  17. Cushman and Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  18. Apartments.com: The Supply Slowdown: 2026 Multifamily Outlook
  19. NAHB: Multifamily Market Expected to Cool in 2026
  20. Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED: SOFR, Aug 21, 2026; global-rates.com: Current SOFR
  21. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026; CNBC: CPI report July 2026
  22. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026; Advisor Perspectives: Core PCE 3.3% in June
  23. Vantage Markets: US Dollar Index falls to 98.55 (Aug 22, 2026); Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar
  24. Euronews: Japan's 10-year bond yield hits a 30-year high (Aug 17, 2026); Trading Economics: Japan 10-year yield
  25. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 24, 2026 (Fannie Mae DUS and Freddie Mac conventional fixed-rate ranges by term)
  26. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  27. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  28. MMG Real Estate Advisors: Atlanta Q2 2026 Market Report
  29. Northmarq: Charlotte multifamily: absorption gains momentum, deliveries slow, Q2 2026
  30. Multi-Housing News / Yardi Matrix: Top 10 Markets for Multifamily Transactions (2025 data; Mar 11, 2026)
  31. MMG Real Estate Advisors: Miami Q2 2026 Market Report (absorption, pipeline)
  32. Yardi Matrix: Miami Multifamily Market Report, June 2026
  33. MMG Real Estate Advisors: Miami Q2 2026 (occupancy 94.6%, cap rate moves by class)
  34. Colliers: South Florida Multifamily Market Report Q1 2026
  35. Bisnow: Miami multifamily nose-dives as hopes for supply relief fade
  36. UCF Institute for Economic Forecasting: Florida and Metro Forecast, Winter 2026; Florida Trend: UCF forecast summary
  37. MacroTrends (Census data): Miami metro population; Census QuickFacts
  38. FirstService Residential: Florida condo and association insurance costs 2026 (American Coastal premium data)
  39. Commercial Observer: HGI buys Emerald Palms for $109M (Aug 2026); The Real Deal: South Florida top deals, Aug 5, 2026
  40. Miami-Dade Property Appraiser: 2026 estimated taxable values
  41. South Florida Agent Magazine: Inventory growth in Miami, Fort Lauderdale to slow in 2026
  42. The Real Deal: South Florida top deals, Aug 18, 2026 (Starwood, American Landmark)
  43. Multifamily Dive: AvalonBay pays $22M for Miami development site
  44. Community Impact: Bryan Planning and Zoning advances two apartment projects (Aug 2026)
  45. FRED (Census data): Resident population, College Station-Bryan MSA; Brazos County
  46. Apartment List Research: Data and rent estimates downloads (city-level rent estimates, rent growth year over year, and vacancy index; monthly)
  47. U.S. Census Bureau: Building Permits Survey, place-level monthly and annual files (units authorized in buildings with 5 or more units)
Disclosures. Compiled Aug 24, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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