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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for Seattle, with Washington, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
August 2026
Seattle MSA. Multifamily
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The Week in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Seattle led the nation in 2025 apartment transactions: $4.4 billion across 84 properties and 16,045 units, first on the Yardi Matrix ranking [121].
  • Nationally, construction fell to 3.5% of inventory, the lowest since 2013 [28].
  • Agency loan rates bottomed near 5.56% in early June [3] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from about 4.2% to 4.68% [1][14].
  • The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them [17][18].
  • Deliveries peaked in 2025 (8,139 units in the first half alone) and Seattle-area job growth turned negative, averaging a loss of 467 jobs a month [122][125].

Where We Are Now

  • Supply is falling fast: 3,813 units delivered year to date, down 53% from 8,139 a year earlier, while Q2 absorption of 4,034 units nearly doubled Q1 [122].
  • Vacancy is 6.7%, down from 7.0% in Q1 and a year ago; average rent $2,250, up 1.6% in the quarter [122].
  • Average cap rate 5.7%, up 10 basis points in a year, at $239,000 per unit [122][123].
  • Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in June [36][37]. SOFR is 3.65% [35].
  • Pricing gap: 5.7% vs. agency 5-year debt at 6.20% [4], negative leverage of about 50 basis points.
  • Jobs are the weak link: the Seattle area has lost an average of 550 jobs a month in 2026 and the city forecast sees little growth through 2027 [125][126].

Where We're Headed

  • Rates: futures markets price two quarter-point increases (Sep 16 and Dec) [18]. If they happen, agency fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.5 to 6.7% by year-end [1][4].
  • Supply: 19,368 units still under construction, up 5% from a year ago, with the largest towers in Denny Triangle (Seattle House, 1,130 units; WB1200, 1,050) and Overlake (1,088) [123]. Deliveries fall this year, then a second wave lands.
  • Washington employment is forecast flat: 0.0% to 0.1% in 2026 and 0.3% in 2027 [124]. Population, not payrolls, is carrying demand: the metro added 66,666 residents, 1.6%, in the latest Census year [127].
  • Transactions stay active: Pacific Urban paid $112 million for A'Capella in Lynnwood and Sea 2 Sky $34 million for Station Nine [128][129].
  • Net: Seattle's 2026 story is a supply lull inside a jobs stall. Vacancy improves this year; the 2027 pipeline and AI-driven office demand decide whether rents follow.

What It Means for Seattle

  1. The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.68% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.25 to 6.75% [1][17][18].
  2. The 2025 transaction leader. $4.4 billion across 84 sales put Seattle first nationally on the Yardi Matrix list [121]; volume continues in 2026 at $239K per unit [122].
  3. A supply lull, not a supply end. Deliveries are down 53% this year, but 19,368 units remain under construction, slightly more than a year ago [122][123].
  4. Jobs are negative. The Seattle area is losing about 550 jobs a month in 2026 and the state forecast is flat through 2027 [124][125]. Underwrite rent growth conservatively.
  5. Costs are steady. King County apartment assessed values have been flat to down since 2022; the 2026 roll rose 5.4% overall [130]. Washington has no state income tax; the Seattle payroll tax is the local watch item [126].

Seattle Multifamily

Seattle led the nation in 2025 apartment transactions and enters late 2026 in a supply lull: deliveries are down 53% year to date while Q2 absorption nearly doubled. Vacancy is 6.7% and rents rose 1.6% in the quarter. The counterweight is employment, which is shrinking in the Seattle area and forecast flat statewide.

Average cap rate
5.7%
Up 10 bp YoY; $239,000 per unit
Kidder Mathews Q2 2026 [122][123]
Rent growth
+1.6% QoQ
Average rent $2,250
Kidder Mathews Q2 2026 [122]
Occupancy
93.3%
Up from 93.0% in Q1 and a year ago
Kidder Mathews Q2 2026 [122]
Population growth
+67K
+1.6%, latest Census year; Seattle city 816,600
Census via Axios; WA OFM [127]

Seattle Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Where deals are clearing. Hover each range.
4%5%6%7% Class A 4.9 to 5.4% Class B 5.5 to 6% Class C 6.1 to 6.9% avg 5.7% debt 6.20%
Cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Kidder Mathews Q2 [122][123]; Yield PRO [128]. Class splits are interpolated around the published 5.7% average.

Seattle vs. National Fundamentals

Hover a bar. Negative means rents are falling.
Rent growth, year over year 0%-2%-4%+2% Seattle +1.6% QoQ U.S. -1.1% Vacancy 0%5%10%15% Seattle 6.7% U.S. 7.2 to 8.9%
SeattleUnited States
Sources: Kidder Mathews [122]; Apartment List [25]; CBRE [26]; Cushman and Wakefield [27].

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Seattle

The delivery wave is ending.
MetricNationalSeattleRead-through
Deliveries382,000 projected for 2026 [28]3,813 units year to date, down 53% from 8,139; Q2 2,039 [122]2025 was the delivery peak
Under construction3.5% of inventory [28]19,368 units, up 5.0% YoY [123]Seattle House 1,130; WB1200 1,050; Overlake East 1,088 [123]
Absorption vs. deliveries362K vs 358K, four quarters [27]4,034 absorbed vs. 2,039 delivered, Q2 [122]Absorption nearly doubled from Q1
2026 outlookPeak then tighten [29]Vacancy easing; occupancy 95.4% [122]Second supply wave from the 2026 to 2027 pipeline
Supply pressure by submarketDenny Triangle, Overlake, Port Gardner (Everett) carry the largest projects [123]Lynnwood and Snohomish suburbs active for trades [128][129]
Price trend$239,000 per unit, flat QoQ; $312 per square foot [122]Pricing held while cap rates edged up

Seattle Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Jul 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Jul 2026 [207]
Rent, year over year
Apartment List [207]
MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [208]
MF units permitted, 2026 through Jun
Census BPS [208]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Auburn$1,562-3.7%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Bellevue$2,469+1.3%293925+531%
Bothell$2,385-0.3%1430-100%
Federal Way$1,742-2.5%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Kent$1,724-1.3%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Lakewood$1,499-0.6%38815-92%
Puyallup$1,833-0.7%3080-100%
Redmond$2,324+2.3%1,119598+7%
Renton$2,048-1.3%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Seattle$2,083-2.7%3,033993-35%
Shoreline$1,947-1.2%11365+65x
Tacoma$1,663-1.7%557613+120%

Seattle Transactions and Deal Flow

Seattle was the top U.S. transaction market in 2025 [121] and stayed active in August: a $112 million Lynnwood trade, a $34 million suburban buy, and a First Hill value-add sale.

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Station Nine ApartmentsLynnwood126Sea 2 Sky Partners$34M; about $270K per unitAug 2026 [129]
A'Capella Apartment HomesLynnwood387Pacific Urban Investors; seller Weidner Apartment Homes$112M; about $289K per unitAug 2026 [128]
MonticelloFirst Hill107Nordic Partners Investments (Kidder Mathews)UndisclosedJul 2026 [131]
Elara at The MarketDowntown Seattle150Seattle Social Housing Developer, first acquisition$60.9M; about $406K per unit2026 [132]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. Low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-to-high 5s as of Aug 24; higher-leverage quotes are in the low 6s. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed. Hover the points.
6.4% 6.0% 5.6% 5.2% Jun 4 Jul 27 Aug 21 5.56% 5.70% 6.20%
Sources: Select Commercial [3]; Apartment Loan Store [4]. Different quote sources; treat as indicative.

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to Seattle owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA [5]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA [5]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (indicative)6.20%Aug 21 [4]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.45-5.85% / 5.53-5.93% / 5.59-5.99%BWE, Aug 24 [40]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.77-5.92% / 5.83-5.98% / 5.81-5.96%BWE, Aug 24 [40]
Max LTV / min DSCRUp to 80% LTV on small-balance loans; best pricing at 60 to 65% LTV and 1.30 to 1.35xSelect Commercial [3]; BWE [40]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 5.9 to 6.9%)Crittenden [41]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.6 to 8.1%)RRA Capital [42]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.24% to 12.75%Janover [6]
30-year home mortgage (context)6.65%Freddie Mac PMMS, Aug 20 [7]

Washington

Washington's labor market has stalled. The state Employment Security Department expects employment growth of about 0.0% to 0.1% in 2026 and 0.3% in 2027, and the Seattle area has been losing about 550 jobs a month this year. Population growth of 1.6% and in-migration are doing the work that payrolls used to.

Washington job growth, 2026 fcst
0.0 to 0.1%
ESD; revised down in June
WA ESD / ERFC [124]
2027 forecast
0.3%
Still below the U.S. pace
WA ESD [124]
Seattle area, 2026 pace
-550
jobs per month; 2025 was -467 per month
BLS via USAFacts [125]
Metro population
+1.6%
+66,666 residents, latest Census year
Census via Axios Seattle [127]

Washington and Seattle Job Growth

Annual. Hover bars.
0%1%2% Seattle 2025 -0.2% Seattle 2026 -0.3% WA 2026 fcst 0.1% WA 2027 fcst 0.3%
Sources: WA Employment Security Department / ERFC [124]; BLS via USAFacts [125].

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Seattle net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceLower catastrophe exposure than the Sun Belt; earthquake cover is the local line itemModest premium pressure relative to Texas, Florida or California
Property taxKing County apartment assessed values flat to down since 2022; 2026 total roll up 5.39% [130]Appeals through the Board of Equalization; no state income tax
Population and migrationMetro +66,666 (+1.6%), driven by foreign immigration; Seattle city passed 800,000 [127]Demand support despite the jobs stall
Key sectorTech hiring flat to negative; city forecast warns AI-driven hiring restraint through 2027 [126]Payroll tax and office values are the fiscal watch items
Peer metros (Q2 2026)DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% YoY [22]. Phoenix vacancy 11.3% [95]. Denver vacancy 5.74%, rents -4.7% [150]Seattle sits mid-pack on vacancy with positive quarterly rent growth

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Markets are now pricing two quarter-point increases, September and December. The 10-year Treasury finished Aug 14 at 4.68%.

10-Year Treasury
4.68%
Up from about 4.2% earlier in 2026
U.S. Treasury, Aug 14 [1]
Fed Funds Target
3.50 to 3.75%
Held Jul 29. Three votes to raise
Federal Reserve [17]
SOFR
3.65%
Aug 21. Up from 3.61% in June
NY Fed / FRED, Aug 21 [2][35]
Next Fed Meeting
Sep 15 to 16
Market pricing a quarter-point increase
Federal Reserve [17]; CNBC [18]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.7%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Jun PCE 3.7% (core 3.3%)
BLS, Aug 12 [36]; BEA, Jul 30 [37]

The Rate Stack: How a Seattle Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.625% +1.05% +1.52% spread 10-year Treasury 4.68% Agency 5-year 6.20% 0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury [1]; Select Commercial / Apartment Loan Store (Aug 21) [3][4]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower.

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
10-Year Treasury
4.70%
Daily close, 2026-08-24
FRED DGS10 [205]
30-Year Mortgage
6.65%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of 2026-08-20
FRED MORTGAGE30US [206]
Spread, latest month
1.99 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
FRED, monthly averages [205][206]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024 Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [205] and MORTGAGE30US [206], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-08-26).

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher this month as traders scaled back expectations for 2026 rate cuts. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply risk, which adds to inflation.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0% 2% 4% 6% United States 4.68% United Kingdom ~4.6% Germany ~2.9% Japan 2.88%
Sources: ETF Trends / U.S. Treasury (Aug 14) [1]; Trading Economics [14]; FXStreet [15]; Euronews (Aug 17) [39]. UK and Germany approximate.

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into Seattle borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Seattle cares
European Central BankOn hold. Virtually no further cuts pricedKeeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandExpected quarter-point cut to 4.00%Gilt yields still rising, an inflation worry
Bank of JapanJGB 10-year at 2.88%, highest since 1996 [39]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Hormuz supply riskMinus for inflation and Fed posture; no local energy offset
U.S. dollarIndex 98.55 on Aug 22, lowest since May; down 2.5% over the month [38]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: Trading Economics [14]; FXStreet [15]; Business Standard / Reuters [16].

Sources

Show the 44 sources cited in this edition
  1. ETF Trends: Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 14, 2026; U.S. Treasury: Daily Par Yield Curve
  2. FRED: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR); DGS10
  3. Select Commercial: Freddie Mac Multifamily Loan Rates (7/27/2026)
  4. Apartment Loan Store: Multifamily Loan Rates 08/21/2026
  5. FHFA: 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps
  6. Janover: Multifamily Mortgage Rates
  7. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey
  8. Trading Economics: Global Bond Selloff Deepens on 2026 Rate Repricing
  9. FXStreet: EUR/GBP ahead of BoE decision
  10. Business Standard / Reuters: Oil price and bonds
  11. Federal Reserve: FOMC Minutes, July 28 to 29, 2026
  12. CNBC: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady (Jul 29, 2026); Cambridge Currencies: Next FOMC 16 Sept 2026
  13. CRE Daily: Dallas Multifamily Rents Slide in 2026
  14. Apartment List: National Rent Report
  15. CBRE: Q1 2026 U.S. Multifamily Figures
  16. Cushman and Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  17. Apartments.com: The Supply Slowdown: 2026 Multifamily Outlook
  18. NAHB: Multifamily Market Expected to Cool in 2026
  19. Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED: SOFR, Aug 21, 2026; global-rates.com: Current SOFR
  20. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026; CNBC: CPI report July 2026
  21. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026; Advisor Perspectives: Core PCE 3.3% in June
  22. Vantage Markets: US Dollar Index falls to 98.55 (Aug 22, 2026); Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar
  23. Euronews: Japan's 10-year bond yield hits a 30-year high (Aug 17, 2026); Trading Economics: Japan 10-year yield
  24. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 24, 2026 (Fannie Mae DUS and Freddie Mac conventional fixed-rate ranges by term)
  25. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  26. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  27. Kidder Mathews: Phoenix Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  28. Multi-Housing News / Yardi Matrix: Top 10 Markets for Multifamily Transactions (2025 data; Mar 11, 2026)
  29. Kidder Mathews: Seattle Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  30. Kidder Mathews: Q2 2026 Seattle and Puget Sound Apartment Market Dynamics
  31. Washington Employment Security Department: State labor market conditions, Q2 2026; ERFC: June 2026 revenue review
  32. USAFacts (BLS data): Jobs added in the Seattle area
  33. Axios Seattle: Seattle job growth may stall through 2027 (May 27, 2026)
  34. Axios Seattle (Census data): Seattle metro grows faster than U.S.; The Urbanist: Seattle passes 800,000 (OFM)
  35. Yield PRO: Pacific Urban acquires A'Capella for $112M (Aug 2026)
  36. Kidder Mathews: Seattle investor buys Lynnwood complex for $34M (Aug 2026)
  37. King County Assessor: 2026 statistical reports; King County: Trends in property values and taxes
  38. Kidder Mathews: Sale of Monticello, First Hill (Jul 2026)
  39. Multi-Housing News: Seattle Social Housing Developer buys first property
  40. Matthews: Denver Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  41. Community Impact: Bryan Planning and Zoning advances two apartment projects (Aug 2026)
  42. FRED (Census data): Resident population, College Station-Bryan MSA; Brazos County
  43. Apartment List Research: Data and rent estimates downloads (city-level rent estimates, rent growth year over year, and vacancy index; monthly)
  44. U.S. Census Bureau: Building Permits Survey, place-level monthly and annual files (units authorized in buildings with 5 or more units)
Disclosures. Compiled Aug 24, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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