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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
September 2026
College Station-Bryan MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Texas A&M passed 80,000 students in fall 2025 (81,354 system-wide; more than 74,000 on the College Station campus, up almost 2,000), and then announced a five- to seven-year plan to slow enrollment growth [191].
  • Developers responded to the enrollment run-up with purpose-built student towers near Northgate; a 19-story tower was scheduled to complete in summer 2026 [192].
  • Nationally, construction fell to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory and the lowest since 2013 [27][28].
  • Agency 5-year quotes ran 5.14 to 5.29% in March [40] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.19% on Jan 2 to 4.78% on Sep 4 [1].
  • Texas job growth ran 1.6% annualized in the first seven months of 2026 after a flat 2025 (0.1%), below the state's 2% long-run average [221][48].

Where We Are Now

  • Rents are mixed by tracker: Apartment List puts the College Station median at $1,256, down 2.2% year over year; RentCafe puts the average at $1,791, up 1.3% [193][194]. Rents move with the academic calendar.
  • Local jobs are flat: 143,700 employed in July 2026, up 300 from a year earlier, with unemployment at 4.3% versus 4.1% a year ago [195].
  • Brazos County appraisals rose about 10% overall in 2026; the appraisal district's published cap rate range for income housing is 6.5 to 8.5% [196][197].
  • Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in July [36][216]. SOFR is 3.66% [35].
  • Institutional capital is present: a PCCP and Dinerstein joint venture bought two adjacent student communities totaling 1,128 beds on Harvey Mitchell Parkway in June, rebranding them Sterling College Station [198].
  • No allowed source publishes a metro-wide apartment vacancy or absorption figure for College Station-Bryan this period; those slots are marked accordingly rather than estimated.

Where We're Headed

  • Rates: futures markets price about a 58% chance of a quarter-point increase on Sep 16, after peaking near 66% following the Jackson Hole speech [217]. If it lands, agency 5-year fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.2 to 6.3% [1][40].
  • Supply: the next wave is dated 2028. Rambler Northgate (24 stories, 342 units) started in April 2026 for June 2028; Ariza Summit Crossing (12 buildings) targets June 2028; Knoxwood Crossing adds 60 workforce units for $21 million [199][200]. A $125 million high-rise near campus and the six-story "Langley" student project are proposed [192][201].
  • Demand: the enrollment cap plan means the student base grows more slowly than the 2019 to 2025 run; the MSA population is 287,476 (2025), Brazos County 249,088 [202].
  • The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 Texas employment forecast to 1.7% (range 1.3 to 2.1%) on Aug 21 [221]; locally, payrolls grew 0.2% over the past year [195].
  • Net: College Station-Bryan is a university-anchored market with a 2028 supply date and a slowing enrollment curve. The published cap rate range of 6.5 to 8.5% is the widest positive spread over agency debt of any market we cover, which is why institutional student-housing buyers are active [197][198][40].

What It Means for College Station

  1. The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.78% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.0 to 6.5% [1][17][18].
  2. Positive leverage is available here. Brazos CAD's published 6.5 to 8.5% cap rate range for income housing sits above 6.07% agency debt [197][40], unlike every large metro in this report.
  3. Demand is the university, and the university is slowing on purpose. 81,354 students in fall 2025, then a multi-year plan to slow growth [191]. Underwrite flat to low-single-digit bed growth.
  4. The next supply wave lands in 2028. Rambler Northgate and Ariza Summit Crossing both target June 2028 [199][200]; 2026 to 2027 deliveries are limited to projects already leasing (Azura was 100% leased by April) [200].
  5. Data is thin; read the sources. No allowed source publishes metro vacancy or absorption this period, and rent trackers disagree (-2.2% vs. +1.3%) [193][194]. Appraisals are up about 10% [196].

College Station-Bryan Multifamily

College Station-Bryan is a university-anchored market: Texas A&M passed 80,000 students in fall 2025 and then moved to slow enrollment growth. Rent trackers disagree on direction (Apartment List -2.2%, RentCafe +1.3%), local payrolls are flat, and the next large deliveries are dated 2028. Brazos CAD's published 6.5 to 8.5% cap rate range for income housing is the one market in this report where cap rates clear agency debt.

Cap rate range (income housing)
6.5 to 8.5%
Brazos CAD published range; no market average published
Brazos CAD 2026 [197]
Rent growth
-2.2 to +1.3%
Apartment List median $1,256; RentCafe average $1,791
Apartment List / RentCafe [193][194]
Occupancy
Not published
No allowed source publishes a metro figure this period
See SOURCES.md
Population
287,476
MSA, 2025; Brazos County 249,088
Census via FRED [202]

College Station-Bryan Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Where deals are clearing. Hover each range.
4%5%6%7% Class A 6.5 to 8.5% Class B 6.5 to 8.5% Class C 6.5 to 8.5% avg 7.5% debt 6.07%
Cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Brazos Central Appraisal District, 2026 low and moderate income housing capitalization rate [197]. Class-level and market-average figures are not published; the bars show the single published range.

College Station-Bryan vs. National Fundamentals

Hover a bar. Negative means rents are falling.
Rent growth, year over year 0%-2%-4%+2% College Station -2.2 to +1.3% U.S. -0.8% Vacancy 0%5%10%15% College Station not published U.S. 4.3 to 8.9%
College StationUnited States
Sources: Apartment List [193]; RentCafe [194]; CBRE [26]; Cushman and Wakefield [27].

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and College Station

The delivery wave is ending.
MetricNationalCollege StationRead-through
Deliveries382,000 projected for 2026 [28]19-story student tower near Texas A&M scheduled for summer 2026; Azura Residences 100% leased by April [192][200]Metro-wide delivery counts are not published by an allowed source
Under construction475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory [27]Rambler Northgate, 24 stories, 342 units, started Apr 2026 for Jun 2028; Ariza Summit Crossing, 12 buildings, Jun 2028; Knoxwood Crossing, 60 workforce units, $21M [199][200]The next wave is dated 2028
Absorption vs. deliveries362K vs 358K, four quarters [27]Not publishedEnrollment is the demand proxy: 74,000-plus on campus, up almost 2,000 [191]
2026 outlookPeak then tighten [29]Enrollment growth to slow under a five- to seven-year plan [191]Bed demand growth moderates
Proposed$125M high-rise near campus; six-story "Langley" student project in College Oaks; 7-acre multifamily site at Turkey Creek Road [192][201]City approvals moving through Bryan and College Station councils
Price trendBrazos County appraisals up about 10% overall in 2026 [196]Transaction pricing not published

College Station Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the College Station-Bryan, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Aug 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Aug 2026 [207]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [207]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [208]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Jul
Census BPS [208]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Bryan$1,310+0.4%0447n/a, no 2025 permits
College Station$1,252-2.6%455734+177%

College Station-Bryan Transactions and Deal Flow

Institutional student-housing capital is active. The largest reported 2026 trade is the PCCP and Dinerstein joint venture's purchase of two adjacent communities totaling 1,128 beds, now Sterling College Station [198]. No sales were reported by allowed sources in the last 30 days.

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
2818 Apartments and Parkway Place (now Sterling College Station)Harvey Mitchell Parkway South1,128 bedsPCCP and The Dinerstein Companies joint ventureUndisclosedJun 2026 [198]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. As of Aug 31 low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-5s and higher-leverage quotes sit just above 6% [40]. Across all multifamily products, quotes run 5.43% to 6.63% [220]. CBRE put the average multifamily loan spread at 162 basis points in Q2, 15 tighter than a year ago, with lenders competing on price rather than leverage [219]. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed at 1.25x debt coverage and 65% loan-to-value, top of the published range. One source throughout. Hover the points.
6.4% 6.0% 5.6% 5.2% Jan 20 Mar 9 Aug 31 5.42% 5.29% 6.07%
Source: BWE Market Rates [40], one rate sheet at three dates (Jan 20, Mar 9 and Aug 31, 2026). Indicative levels only; Freddie Mac prices each loan individually and does not publish pricing.

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to College Station owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA [5]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA [5]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)5.92-6.07%BWE, Aug 31 [40]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.56-5.96% / 5.62-6.02% / 5.68-6.08%BWE, Aug 31 [40]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.87-6.02% / 5.92-6.07% / 5.88-6.03%BWE, Aug 31 [40]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31 [40]; CBRE Q2 2026 [219]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 5.9 to 6.9%)Crittenden [41]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.6 to 8.1%)RRA Capital [42]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [220]
30-year home mortgage (context)6.71%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Sep 3 [7]

Texas

Texas gave back some of its second-quarter momentum. Employment grew 1.9% annualized in the first half, but payrolls fell at a 0.1% annualized rate in July, pulling year-to-date growth down to 1.6%, below the state's 2% long-run average. The Dallas Fed cut its full-year forecast to 1.7% on Aug 21, from 2.0% in July. Manufacturing wage pressure is easing: the Dallas Fed wages and benefits index fell to 21.1 in August from 30.8 in July.

Texas job growth, H1 2026
1.9%
annualized. Year to date through Jul: 1.6%
Dallas Fed, Aug 21 [8][221]
2026 employment forecast
1.7%
Cut Aug 21 from 2.0%. Range 1.3 to 2.1%
Dallas Fed [221]
Manufacturing wage growth
4.8%
Jul reading. Aug wages index eased to 21.1 from 30.8
Dallas Fed [8][222]
Labor supply
Tightening
Unemployment 4.4%; average hourly earnings $35.63
Dallas Fed [8][222]

Texas Job Growth vs. Long-Run Average

Annualized. Hover bars.
0%1%2% Long-run avg 2.0% 2025 0.1% 2026 YTD 1.6% 2026 fcst 1.7%
Sources: Dallas Fed Texas Economic Indicators, Jul 31 [222]; Texas Employment Forecast, Aug 21 [221]; Texas Update, 2026 [48].

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit College Station net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceTexas FAIR Plan rate changes took effect Sep 1 [10]The first renewals at the new rates land this quarter. Multifamily policy quotes $3.2K to $9K per year [11]
Property taxBrazos County appraisals up about 10% overall in 2026; CAD income-housing cap rate range 6.5 to 8.5% [196][197]Appraisal growth well below Dallas and Tarrant
Population and migrationMSA 287,476 in 2025; Brazos County 249,088; Texas A&M 81,354 students, College Station campus 74,000-plus [202][191]Enrollment, not migration, drives apartment demand
Energy sectorBrent $96.02 and WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 against 21.6 million before the conflict [214]Supports Houston and Permian jobs; indirect College Station benefit
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Austin rents +1.3% in Q2, first gain since 2022 [45]. Houston vacancy 7.1%, rents -2.3% [46]. DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% [22]College Station follows the academic calendar more than the Texas cycle

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Futures now put a quarter-point increase at the Sep 15 to 16 meeting at about 58%, after the Jackson Hole speech pushed the odds as high as 66%. The 10-year Treasury closed Sep 4 at 4.78%, its highest of the year, and August payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%.

10-Year Treasury
4.78%
Up from 4.19% on Jan 2; 4.73% on Aug 28
U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]
Fed Funds Target
3.50 to 3.75%
Held Jul 29. Three votes to raise
Federal Reserve [17]
SOFR
3.66%
Sep 3. Up from 3.61% on Jun 3
NY Fed, Sep 3 [35]
Next Fed Meeting
Sep 15 to 16
Futures price about a 58% chance of an increase
Federal Reserve [17]; CME FedWatch via CNBC [217]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.7%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Jul PCE 3.7% (core 3.3%)
BLS, Aug 12 [36]; BEA, Aug 26 [216]

The Rate Stack: How a College Station Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.625% +1.16% +1.29% spread 10-year Treasury 4.78% Agency 5-year 6.07% 0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; BWE rate sheet, Aug 31 [40]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower, and a 5-year agency loan is priced off the 5-year index, not the 10-year.

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
10-Year Treasury
4.77%
Daily close, 2026-09-03
FRED DGS10 [191]
30-Year Mortgage
6.71%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of 2026-09-03
FRED MORTGAGE30US [192]
Spread, latest month
1.93 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
FRED, monthly averages [191][192]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024 Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [191] and MORTGAGE30US [192], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-09-04).

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks turned from cutting to tightening. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June, the Bank of Japan reached 1.00% for the first time since 1995, and the Japanese 10-year crossed 3% on Sep 2. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply disruption, which helps Texas producers but adds to inflation.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0% 2% 4% 6% United States 4.78% United Kingdom 4.70% Germany 3.40% Japan 2.97%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; Bank of England, Sep 2 [209]; Deutsche Bundesbank, Sep 4 [210]; Japan Ministry of Finance, Sep 3 [211]. All four are the issuing authority's own published series.

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into College Station borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy College Station cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.25%, raised from 2.00% effective Jun 17, 2026 [212]The first ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75%, held Jul 30; next decision Sep 17 [209]Gilt yields still rising to 4.70%, an inflation worry [209]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.00%, raised Jun 16 and held Jul 31 [213]. JGB 10-year 2.97%, above 3% on Sep 2 [211]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [214]Plus for Texas jobs and royalties; minus for inflation and Fed posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [38]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: European Central Bank [212]; Bank of England [209]; Bank of Japan [213]; Japan Ministry of Finance [211]; EIA [214]; Trading Economics [38].

Sources

Show the 48 sources cited in this edition
  1. U.S. Department of the Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 2026 (10-year constant maturity; 4.78% on Sep 4, 2026)
  2. FHFA: 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps
  3. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey
  4. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas Economic Indicators; Momentum builds in the Texas economy; wage pressures broaden
  5. ReSource Pro: New Texas FAIR Plan Rates Effective Sept. 1, 2026
  6. Wexford Insurance: Multifamily Property Insurance Cost in Texas
  7. Federal Reserve: FOMC Minutes, July 28 to 29, 2026
  8. CNBC: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady (Jul 29, 2026)
  9. CRE Daily: Dallas Multifamily Rents Slide in 2026
  10. CBRE: Q1 2026 U.S. Multifamily Figures
  11. Cushman and Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  12. Apartments.com: The Supply Slowdown: 2026 Multifamily Outlook
  13. NAHB: Multifamily Market Expected to Cool in 2026
  14. Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), 3.66% for Sep 3, 2026
  15. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026; CNBC: CPI report July 2026
  16. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  17. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026 (Fannie Mae DUS and Freddie Mac conventional fixed-rate ranges by term, DSCR and LTV tier); earlier BWE sheets as of Jan 20, 2026 and Mar 9, 2026 via the Internet Archive
  18. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  19. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  20. CRE Daily: Austin multifamily rents rise as supply glut starts to ease
  21. Northmarq: Houston multifamily vacancies trend lower, Q2 2026; Cushman and Wakefield: Houston Multifamily MarketBeat Q2 2026
  22. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas job growth expected to pick up following flat 2025; Texas Employment Forecast, Dec 2025
  23. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (daily; source Federal Reserve H.15)
  24. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): MORTGAGE30US, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (weekly; source Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey)
  25. Apartment List: city rent reports, August 2026: Irving, Arlington, Frisco, Fort Worth, Plano, Denton, McKinney, Grand Prairie, Carrollton, Garland; Dallas (July 2026)
  26. Transwestern: Dallas-Fort Worth Multifamily Market Q1 2026 (submarket occupancy and units under construction)
  27. The Eagle: Texas A&M reaches 80,000 enrollment in fall 2025; MyAggieNation: TAMU capping enrollment
  28. Houston Chronicle: New 19-story student housing tower near Texas A&M; $125M high-rise apartments could reshape the skyline at Texas A&M
  29. Apartment List: College Station rent data
  30. RentCafe (Yardi): Average rent in College Station, 2026
  31. KBTX (Texas Workforce Commission data): Unemployment in Bryan-College Station higher than a year ago (Aug 23, 2026)
  32. KBTX: What to know about property appraisals (Brazos County 2026)
  33. Brazos Central Appraisal District: 2026 low and moderate income housing capitalization rate
  34. Yield PRO: Joint venture acquires 1,128-bed student housing community serving Texas A&M (Jun 2026)
  35. Apartment List Research: Data and rent estimates downloads (city-level rent estimates, rent growth year over year, and vacancy index; monthly)
  36. U.S. Census Bureau: Building Permits Survey, place-level monthly and annual files (units authorized in buildings with 5 or more units)
  37. Bank of England: Interactive Statistical Database, series IUDSNPY, 10-year nominal par gilt yield (4.70% on Sep 2, 2026); Bank Rate 3.75%, held Jul 30, 2026
  38. Deutsche Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond (3.40% on Sep 4, 2026)
  39. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds, interest rate (10-year 2.97% on Sep 3, 2026; 3.01% on Sep 2)
  40. European Central Bank: Key ECB interest rates (deposit facility 2.25% effective Jun 17, 2026)
  41. Bank of Japan: Statement on Monetary Policy, Jul 31, 2026; Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations, Jun 16, 2026 (policy rate 1.00%)
  42. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026); Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026 (Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million b/d in 2Q26 against 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25; Brent forecast to average about $85/b in 3Q26)
  43. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 (Aug 26, 2026) (PCE 3.7%, core 3.3%)
  44. CNBC: Markets see Warsh endorsing a rate hike in September (Aug 31, 2026); Strong jobs report reignites rate hike fears (Sep 3, 2026), both citing CME FedWatch fed funds futures probabilities
  45. CBRE: Commercial Real Estate Lending Fundamentals Remain Strong in Q2 2026 (Aug 3, 2026) (multifamily loan spread 162 bp, LTV 63.3%, DSCR 1.43x, debt yield 10.2%)
  46. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026 (agency, FHA, life company and CMBS multifamily quotes)
  47. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas employment forecast softens (Aug 21, 2026) (2026 forecast 1.7%, band 1.3 to 2.1%; year-to-date growth 1.6% through July)
  48. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas Economic Indicators, Jul 31, 2026 (unemployment 4.4%, average hourly earnings $35.63, metro year-to-date job growth); Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, Aug 31, 2026 (wages and benefits index 21.1)
Disclosures. Compiled Sep 4, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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