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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
September 2026
Miami MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • South Florida rents ran up 30%-plus in 2021 to 2022, then a delivery wave and slowing migration flattened them; trailing 12-month absorption of 7,608 units has nearly matched 7,847 delivered [145].
  • Nationally, construction fell to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory and the lowest since 2013 [27][28].
  • Agency 5-year quotes ran 5.14 to 5.29% in March [40] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.19% on Jan 2 to 4.78% on Sep 4 [1].
  • The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them [17][18].
  • Miami ranked sixth nationally in 2025 transactions: $3.6 billion across 56 properties at $261,309 per unit [121].

Where We Are Now

  • Rents are flat to slightly up: $2,380 to $2,526 per unit depending on tracker, +0.2% trailing three months, with two consecutive positive quarters [145][146]. Submarkets diverge: Overtown +12.8%, Miami Beach +9.7%; Brickell, Homestead and Little Haiti down [146].
  • Occupancy 94.6% (MMG), up 10 basis points; Colliers stabilized occupancy 95% [147][148].
  • Pricing is high and cap rates low: about 5.0% at $325,921 per unit, up 15.7% year over year (Colliers Q1) [148].
  • Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in July [36][216]. SOFR is 3.66% [35].
  • Pricing gap: 5.0% vs. agency 5-year debt at 6.07% [40], negative leverage of about 107 basis points, the widest with Charlotte.
  • Supply is still large: 15,481 units under construction, 7.3% of inventory, though starts fell to 6,813 from 8,592 [145].

Where We're Headed

  • Rates: futures markets price about a 58% chance of a quarter-point increase on Sep 16, after peaking near 66% following the Jackson Hole speech [217]. If it lands, agency 5-year fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.2 to 6.3% [1][40].
  • Supply: the 7.3% pipeline means hopes for near-term supply relief have faded; Bisnow reports sales volume nose-diving as a result [149].
  • Florida job growth slowed to 1.2% in 2025 and is forecast at 0.6 to 0.8% for 2026, with unemployment rising toward 4.3% [151]; metro population growth has slowed to 0.9% [152].
  • Insurance is finally easing: American Coastal reports Florida commercial property premiums down 16.6% year over year through Q1 2026 [153].
  • Net: Miami is priced like a growth market while growth slows. Buyers who paid up in 2021 are exiting near breakeven, as Milestone did on Emerald Palms [154]; the entry point is better than it was.

What It Means for Miami

  1. The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.78% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.0 to 6.5% [1][17][18].
  2. Priced for growth that is slowing. Cap rates near 5.0% and $326K per unit [148] against flat rents and 0.6 to 0.8% state job growth [151].
  3. Supply relief is not coming yet. 15,481 units under construction, 7.3% of inventory, the largest pipeline relative to stock among the metros we cover [145].
  4. 2021 buyers are exiting flat. Milestone sold the 505-unit Emerald Palms to Harbor Group for $109 million, $2 million above its 2021 price [154].
  5. Insurance has turned. Commercial property premiums down 16.6% year over year [153]; Miami-Dade taxable value growth slowed to 5.5% [155].

Miami Multifamily

Miami is a high-priced market in a holding pattern. Rents are flat to slightly positive, occupancy about 94.6 to 95%, and absorption has nearly matched deliveries over the past year. The pipeline is still 7.3% of inventory, cap rates sit near 5.0%, and Florida's job and population growth are slowing. The one clear improvement is insurance, which is finally falling.

Average cap rate
~5.0%
$325,921 per unit, +15.7% YoY (Q1)
Colliers South Florida [148]
Rent growth
+0.2%
Trailing 3 months; asking rent $2,526
Yardi Matrix June 2026 [146]
Occupancy
94.6%
Up 10 bp YoY; stabilized 95% (Colliers)
MMG Q2 / Colliers Q1 [147][148]
Population growth
+0.9%
Metro 6.37M in 2025
Census via MacroTrends [152]

Miami Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Where deals are clearing. Hover each range.
4%5%6%7% Class A 4.4 to 4.9% Class B 4.9 to 5.5% Class C 5.6 to 6.4% avg 5.0% debt 6.07%
Cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Colliers [148]; MMG [147]; Commercial Observer [154]. Class splits are interpolated around the published average.

Miami vs. National Fundamentals

Hover a bar. Negative means rents are falling.
Rent growth, year over year 0%-2%-4%+2% Miami +0.2% U.S. -0.8% Vacancy 0%5%10%15% Miami 5.0 to 6.2% U.S. 4.3 to 8.9%
MiamiUnited States
Sources: MMG [147]; Colliers [148]; Yardi Matrix [146]; Apartment List [25]; CBRE [26].

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Miami

The delivery wave is ending.
MetricNationalMiamiRead-through
Deliveries382,000 projected for 2026 [28]2,649 units through April, 0.7% of stock; 7,847 trailing 12 months [145][146]Inventory growth to slow in 2026 [156]
Under construction475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory [27]15,481 units, 7.3% of inventory [145]Starts down to 6,813 from 8,592 [145]
Absorption vs. deliveries362K vs 358K, four quarters [27]7,608 absorbed vs. 7,847 delivered, trailing 12 months [145]Near equilibrium across all 16 submarkets
2026 outlookPeak then tighten [29]Supply relief hopes fading; sales slowing [149]Cap rates steady near 5.0% [148]
Supply pressure by submarketRents up in Overtown (+12.8%) and Miami Beach (+9.7%); down in Brickell, Homestead, Opa-locka, Little Haiti [146]Urban core diverging from the delivery-heavy west and south
Price trend$325,921 per unit, +15.7% YoY (Colliers Q1) [148]Priced for growth

Miami Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Aug 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Aug 2026 [207]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [207]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [208]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Jul
Census BPS [208]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Boca Raton$2,419-0.9%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Boynton Beach$1,916+2.1%392707+209%
Coral Springs$1,960+1.7%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Doral$2,304-2.1%412380+58%
Fort Lauderdale$1,896+0.3%1,052359-41%
Hollywood$1,501-3.6%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Miami$1,927-0.8%6,8632,439-39%
Pembroke Pines$1,885+0.7%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Plantation$2,093-1.1%8297+63x
Sunrise$1,978-0.5%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Tamarac$1,765-1.9%00n/a, no 2025 permits
West Palm Beach$1,791+3.3%0415n/a, no 2025 permits

Miami Transactions and Deal Flow

August in South Florida was a month of institutional exits at flat prices: Harbor Group bought the 505-unit Emerald Palms from Milestone for $109 million, only $2 million above what Milestone paid five years ago [154].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Upland Park, Phase IASweetwaterTerra Group; $245M bridge loan from SCALE Lending for the first phase of a $1B, 47-acre transit-oriented redevelopmentFinancingSep 1, 2026 [233]
Lakeview at NomiNorth Miami342Integra Investments with the North Miami CRA; preleasing started, 34 units at 60 to 80% of area median incomeDevelopmentAug 24, 2026 [233]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. As of Aug 31 low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-5s and higher-leverage quotes sit just above 6% [40]. Across all multifamily products, quotes run 5.43% to 6.63% [220]. CBRE put the average multifamily loan spread at 162 basis points in Q2, 15 tighter than a year ago, with lenders competing on price rather than leverage [219]. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed at 1.25x debt coverage and 65% loan-to-value, top of the published range. One source throughout. Hover the points.
6.4% 6.0% 5.6% 5.2% Jan 20 Mar 9 Aug 31 5.42% 5.29% 6.07%
Source: BWE Market Rates [40], one rate sheet at three dates (Jan 20, Mar 9 and Aug 31, 2026). Indicative levels only; Freddie Mac prices each loan individually and does not publish pricing.

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to Miami owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA [5]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA [5]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)5.92-6.07%BWE, Aug 31 [40]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.56-5.96% / 5.62-6.02% / 5.68-6.08%BWE, Aug 31 [40]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.87-6.02% / 5.92-6.07% / 5.88-6.03%BWE, Aug 31 [40]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31 [40]; CBRE Q2 2026 [219]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 5.9 to 6.9%)Crittenden [41]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.6 to 8.1%)RRA Capital [42]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [220]
30-year home mortgage (context)6.71%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Sep 3 [7]

Florida

Florida's growth is decelerating. Payroll job growth slowed to 1.2% in 2025 and UCF projects 0.6 to 0.8% for 2026, with unemployment rising from 3.8% toward 4.3%. Miami metro population growth has slowed to 0.9%. The offset is cost: commercial property insurance premiums are falling for the first time in years.

Florida job growth, 2025
1.2%
Slowed from prior years
UCF Winter 2026 Forecast [151]
2026 forecast
0.6 to 0.8%
UCF; averages 0.6% through 2029
UCF [151]
Unemployment path
3.8% to 4.3%
2025 to 2026 forecast
UCF [151]
Insurance premiums
-16.6%
FL commercial property, YoY through Q1 2026 (American Coastal)
FSResidential [153]

Florida Job Growth

Annual. Hover bars.
0%1%2% Florida 2025 1.2% Florida 2026 fcst 0.8% U.S. 2026 fcst 0.5% Texas 2026 fcst 2%
Sources: UCF Institute for Economic Forecasting [151]; Dallas Fed [9].

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Miami net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceFlorida commercial property premiums down 16.6% YoY through Q1 2026; associations still spend 25 to 35% of budgets on insurance [153]First relief after four years of increases
Property taxMiami-Dade 2026 taxable value $540.7B, +5.5%, 3.2 points slower than 2025 [155]Assessment growth decelerating with the market
Population and migrationMetro 6.37M in 2025, +0.9%; city 489,812 [152]Slowest growth since the pandemic surge
Key sectorStatewide payrolls +1.2% in 2025; Central Florida expected to lead the state in 2026 [151]Miami growth now below the state average
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Atlanta vacancy 7.2%, rents -1.0% [82]. Charlotte vacancy 4.0%, rents +12.1% [99]. DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% [22]Miami is the highest-priced Sun Belt market with the flattest rents

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Futures now put a quarter-point increase at the Sep 15 to 16 meeting at about 58%, after the Jackson Hole speech pushed the odds as high as 66%. The 10-year Treasury closed Sep 4 at 4.78%, its highest of the year, and August payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%.

10-Year Treasury
4.78%
Up from 4.19% on Jan 2; 4.73% on Aug 28
U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]
Fed Funds Target
3.50 to 3.75%
Held Jul 29. Three votes to raise
Federal Reserve [17]
SOFR
3.66%
Sep 3. Up from 3.61% on Jun 3
NY Fed, Sep 3 [35]
Next Fed Meeting
Sep 15 to 16
Futures price about a 58% chance of an increase
Federal Reserve [17]; CME FedWatch via CNBC [217]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.7%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Jul PCE 3.7% (core 3.3%)
BLS, Aug 12 [36]; BEA, Aug 26 [216]

The Rate Stack: How a Miami Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.625% +1.16% +1.29% spread 10-year Treasury 4.78% Agency 5-year 6.07% 0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; BWE rate sheet, Aug 31 [40]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower, and a 5-year agency loan is priced off the 5-year index, not the 10-year.

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
10-Year Treasury
4.77%
Daily close, 2026-09-03
FRED DGS10 [191]
30-Year Mortgage
6.71%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of 2026-09-03
FRED MORTGAGE30US [192]
Spread, latest month
1.93 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
FRED, monthly averages [191][192]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024 Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [191] and MORTGAGE30US [192], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-09-04).

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks turned from cutting to tightening. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June, the Bank of Japan reached 1.00% for the first time since 1995, and the Japanese 10-year crossed 3% on Sep 2. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply disruption, which adds to inflation.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0% 2% 4% 6% United States 4.78% United Kingdom 4.70% Germany 3.40% Japan 2.97%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; Bank of England, Sep 2 [209]; Deutsche Bundesbank, Sep 4 [210]; Japan Ministry of Finance, Sep 3 [211]. All four are the issuing authority's own published series.

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into Miami borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Miami cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.25%, raised from 2.00% effective Jun 17, 2026 [212]The first ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75%, held Jul 30; next decision Sep 17 [209]Gilt yields still rising to 4.70%, an inflation worry [209]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.00%, raised Jun 16 and held Jul 31 [213]. JGB 10-year 2.97%, above 3% on Sep 2 [211]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [214]Minus for inflation and Fed posture; no local energy offset
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [38]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: European Central Bank [212]; Bank of England [209]; Bank of Japan [213]; Japan Ministry of Finance [211]; EIA [214]; Trading Economics [38].

Sources

Show the 47 sources cited in this edition
  1. U.S. Department of the Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 2026 (10-year constant maturity; 4.78% on Sep 4, 2026)
  2. FHFA: 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps
  3. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey
  4. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas employment forecast strengthens (Jul 17, 2026)
  5. Federal Reserve: FOMC Minutes, July 28 to 29, 2026
  6. CNBC: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady (Jul 29, 2026)
  7. CRE Daily: Dallas Multifamily Rents Slide in 2026
  8. Apartment List: National Rent Report
  9. CBRE: Q1 2026 U.S. Multifamily Figures
  10. Cushman and Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  11. Apartments.com: The Supply Slowdown: 2026 Multifamily Outlook
  12. NAHB: Multifamily Market Expected to Cool in 2026
  13. Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), 3.66% for Sep 3, 2026
  14. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026; CNBC: CPI report July 2026
  15. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  16. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026 (Fannie Mae DUS and Freddie Mac conventional fixed-rate ranges by term, DSCR and LTV tier); earlier BWE sheets as of Jan 20, 2026 and Mar 9, 2026 via the Internet Archive
  17. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  18. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  19. MMG Real Estate Advisors: Atlanta Q2 2026 Market Report
  20. Northmarq: Charlotte multifamily: absorption gains momentum, deliveries slow, Q2 2026
  21. Multi-Housing News / Yardi Matrix: Top 10 Markets for Multifamily Transactions (2025 data; Mar 11, 2026)
  22. MMG Real Estate Advisors: Miami Q2 2026 Market Report (absorption, pipeline)
  23. Yardi Matrix: Miami Multifamily Market Report, June 2026
  24. MMG Real Estate Advisors: Miami Q2 2026 (occupancy 94.6%, cap rate moves by class)
  25. Colliers: South Florida Multifamily Market Report Q1 2026
  26. Bisnow: Miami multifamily nose-dives as hopes for supply relief fade
  27. UCF Institute for Economic Forecasting: Florida and Metro Forecast, Winter 2026; Florida Trend: UCF forecast summary
  28. MacroTrends (Census data): Miami metro population; Census QuickFacts
  29. FirstService Residential: Florida condo and association insurance costs 2026 (American Coastal premium data)
  30. Commercial Observer: HGI buys Emerald Palms for $109M (Aug 2026); The Real Deal: South Florida top deals, Aug 5, 2026
  31. Miami-Dade Property Appraiser: 2026 estimated taxable values
  32. South Florida Agent Magazine: Inventory growth in Miami, Fort Lauderdale to slow in 2026
  33. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (daily; source Federal Reserve H.15)
  34. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): MORTGAGE30US, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (weekly; source Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey)
  35. Apartment List Research: Data and rent estimates downloads (city-level rent estimates, rent growth year over year, and vacancy index; monthly)
  36. U.S. Census Bureau: Building Permits Survey, place-level monthly and annual files (units authorized in buildings with 5 or more units)
  37. Bank of England: Interactive Statistical Database, series IUDSNPY, 10-year nominal par gilt yield (4.70% on Sep 2, 2026); Bank Rate 3.75%, held Jul 30, 2026
  38. Deutsche Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond (3.40% on Sep 4, 2026)
  39. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds, interest rate (10-year 2.97% on Sep 3, 2026; 3.01% on Sep 2)
  40. European Central Bank: Key ECB interest rates (deposit facility 2.25% effective Jun 17, 2026)
  41. Bank of Japan: Statement on Monetary Policy, Jul 31, 2026; Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations, Jun 16, 2026 (policy rate 1.00%)
  42. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026); Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026 (Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million b/d in 2Q26 against 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25; Brent forecast to average about $85/b in 3Q26)
  43. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 (Aug 26, 2026) (PCE 3.7%, core 3.3%)
  44. CNBC: Markets see Warsh endorsing a rate hike in September (Aug 31, 2026); Strong jobs report reignites rate hike fears (Sep 3, 2026), both citing CME FedWatch fed funds futures probabilities
  45. CBRE: Commercial Real Estate Lending Fundamentals Remain Strong in Q2 2026 (Aug 3, 2026) (multifamily loan spread 162 bp, LTV 63.3%, DSCR 1.43x, debt yield 10.2%)
  46. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026 (agency, FHA, life company and CMBS multifamily quotes)
  47. REBusinessOnline: SCALE Lending Provides $245M Loan for First Phase of Upland Park Apartments in Miami (Sep 1, 2026); Integra Investments and the City of North Miami Begin Preleasing for 342-Unit Lakeview at Nomi (Aug 24, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Sep 4, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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