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The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
October 2026
Boston MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Boston stayed underbuilt: permitting ran below typical levels, deliveries slowed, and 14,523 units were under construction in August [1].
  • The 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.78% on Sep 4 to 5.24% on Oct 1, lifting the benchmark behind apartment debt [2].
  • The Fed raised the target range to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote [3][4].
  • Agency 5-year fixed pricing stood at 6.07% on Aug 31, above Boston cap rates near 5.2% [5][1].
  • Rent control was kept off the 2026 ballot in June, leaving the statewide ban intact [6].

Where We Are Now

  • Conventional occupancy was 92.1% in September, with effective rent up just 0.1% year over year [7].
  • Concessions are spreading: 22% of conventional properties offer deals, up 67% from a year ago [7].
  • Pricing is still rich for this cycle: about $442,000 per unit year to date and cap rates near 5.2% [1].
  • Demand is roughly matching supply: 5,346 absorbed versus 5,448 added over the trailing 12 months [7].
  • Inflation remains above target: July CPI 3.4% and August PCE 3.4%, with core PCE 3.0% [8][9].
  • Recent deal flow was mostly construction: Greystar's 390-unit Taunton groundbreaking, a $44.5 million Norwood loan, and a $36 million Templeton reuse [10][11][12].

Where We're Headed

  • Futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at the Oct 27 to 28 meeting after the weak September jobs report [13].
  • If the 10-year Treasury stays near 5.24%, Boston owners should model agency debt around the 6.07% Aug 31 quote, not spring pricing [2][5].
  • Supply should thin from here: 14,523 units are underway, but completions and permitting are slowing [1].
  • Massachusetts is the demand risk: employment fell 0.4% year over year in Q1 and GDP growth is projected at 0.8 to 1.3% [14].
  • Watch downtown dispositions from the AvalonBay and Equity Residential settlement and whether concessions keep rising from 22% of properties [15][7].

What It Means for Boston

  1. Refinance math has reset. Boston owners with 2026 or 2027 maturities should model agency 5-year debt near 6.07% from Aug 31, with the 10-year Treasury at 5.24% on Oct 1 [5][2].
  2. Negative leverage still prices deals. Boston cap rates near 5.2% sit about 87 basis points below 6.07% agency debt, so buyers need rent growth, lower basis, or more equity to clear leverage [1][5].
  3. Fundamentals are firm but cooling. Boston conventional occupancy was 92.1% in September, but rent growth slowed to 0.1% and concessions reached 22% of properties [7].
  4. Supply is the Boston cushion. Boston has 14,523 units under construction, yet trailing absorption of 5,346 nearly matched 5,448 added, keeping new supply from overwhelming demand [1][7].
  5. Massachusetts jobs are the swing factor. For Boston, Massachusetts employment down 0.4% year over year in Q1 and GDP growth projected at 0.8 to 1.3% matter more than supply; weak hiring would hit lease-up and renewal demand [14].
  6. National rates set Boston's floor. Boston borrowing costs follow the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00% target, SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1, and the 10-year Treasury at 5.24%, even if local fundamentals stay tight [4][16][2].
  7. Global yields reach Boston loans. Boston mortgage pricing is exposed to global bonds: UK gilts 4.92% on Sep 30, Germany 3.60% and Japan 3.09% on Oct 1, with the ECB deposit rate at 2.50% on Oct 2 [17][18][19][20].

Boston Multifamily

Boston's apartment market is cooling at the edges. Conventional occupancy held at 92.1% in September, but effective rent growth slowed to just 0.1% year over year as concessions spread: 22% of properties now offer deals, up 67% from a year ago [7]. Cap rates are holding near 5.2% and pricing near $442,000 per unit [1]. Demand is roughly keeping pace with 14,523 units under construction [1]. Population growth remains minimal at 0.2% [21].

Average cap rate
5.2%
Holding near that level in August
Matthews, Aug 27 [1]
Rent growth
+0.1%
Effective rent, September 2026
ALN, Sep 30 [7]
Occupancy (conventional)
92.1%
September 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Sep 30 [7]
Population growth
+0.2%
2025 metro estimate; 5.03M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [21]

Boston Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5.2% average (Matthews, Aug 27); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Boston estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.5 to 4.9%Class B5.0 to 5.6%Class C5.7 to 6.6%avg 5.2%debt 6.07%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Matthews, Aug 27 [1] [5]

Boston vs. National Fundamentals

Boston rent growth of 2.0% tops the national 1.5%; vacancy of 5.6% sits well below the U.S. 8.9% [1] [22].
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Boston+0.1%U.S.+1.5%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Boston7.9%U.S.8.9%
BostonUnited States
Sources: ALN, Sep 30; Matthews, Aug 27; Cushman & Wakefield, Jul 14 [1] [22] [7]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Boston

Boston's 14,523 units under construction meet cooling demand; concessions are rising as new supply roughly matches absorption [1] [7].
MetricNationalBostonRead-through
Deliveries88K in Q2, down 27% from a year ago [22]About 2,500 units year to date through August [1]Completions slowing considerably
Under construction475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory [22]14,523 units as of August [1]Permitting well below typical levels
Absorption vs. deliveries362K absorbed vs 358K delivered, four quarters [22]5,346 absorbed vs 5,448 added, trailing 12 months [7]Demand roughly matching new supply
2026 outlookPeaked, now tightening [22]Job growth returned for first time since 2023 [15]Rent control off the 2026 ballot [6]
Supply pressure by submarketMetro West corridor most active by deal count; pipeline concentrated in urban core and close-in submarkets [15] [6]Boston Dynamics Waltham expansion worth watching [15]
Price trend$442,000 per unit, 2026 year-to-date sales [1]Cap rates holding near 5.2% [1]

Boston Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Sep 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Sep 2026 [23]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [24]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [25]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Aug
Census BPS [26]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Boston$2,499+1.6%1,8671,074-14%
Cambridge$3,177+2.6%34285+12x
Framingham$1,895-4.7%1046+590%
Norwood$2,465-0.2%8277+51x
Quincy$2,278-0.4%112168+125%
Stoneham$2,238+6.6%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Weymouth Town$2,052-1.1%1410-100%

Boston Transactions and Deal Flow

Boston-area deal flow over the past 90 days was construction, not sales. Greystar broke ground on Whittenton Mills, a 390-unit modular redevelopment in Taunton and the largest modular multifamily project in Massachusetts [10]. Colliers arranged a $44.5 million construction loan for a 145-unit mixed-income project in Norwood [11], and a $36 million adaptive reuse neared completion in Templeton [12]. For owners, the signal is that capital is still funding suburban new supply while conventional asset sales remain scarce.

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Whittenton MillsTaunton390 [10]Greystar broke ground; modular redevelopment of a vacant 19th-century mill complex [10]DevelopmentAug 13 [10]
259 Lenox St. projectNorwood145 [11]Colliers arranged construction loan; five-story building, 20% of units affordable [11]$44.5M financing [11]Sep 10 [11]
Templeton adaptive reuseTempletonUndisclosedMPZ Development and Capstone Communities nearing completion; housing lottery closed Jul 15 [12]$36M development [12]Jul 27 [12]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs moved up into October: the 30-year home mortgage rate hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1, up 57 basis points from 6.71% on Sep 3, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Oct 1 [27][28][2]. Agency lending remains the workhorse for apartment deals, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [29]. SOFR stood at 3.87% on Oct 1, keeping floating-rate bridge money near 6 to 8% [16].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Aug 31 [5]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [29]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [29]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)5.92-6.07%BWE, Aug 31 [5]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.56-5.96% / 5.62-6.02% / 5.68-6.08%BWE, Aug 31 [5]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.87-6.02% / 5.92-6.07% / 5.88-6.03%BWE, Aug 31 [5]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [5]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed, Oct 1 [30] [16]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 [31] [16]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [32]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.28%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1 [27]

Massachusetts

Massachusetts is trailing the nation. Employment fell 0.4% year over year in Q1 2026, and MassBenchmarks projects GDP growth of 0.8 to 1.3% this year [14]. The Boston metro added just 0.2% in population in 2025, reaching 5.03 million residents [21]. The rent-control ballot question was blocked in June; the statewide ban stands [6].

MA employment, Q1 2026
-0.4%
Year over year
MassBenchmarks, Sep 4 [14]
MA GDP growth, 2026
0.8 to 1.3%
Q2 and Q1 projections
MassBenchmarks, Sep 4 [14]
Metro population, 2025
+0.2%
2025 metro estimate; 5.03M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [21]
Rent control
Blocked
SJC kept the 2026 initiative off the ballot
Matthews, Jun 1 [6]

Massachusetts Job Growth

Massachusetts employment fell 0.4% year over year in Q1 2026, trailing national job growth. [14]
0%1%2%MA Q4 20250%MA Q1 2026-0.4%U.S. Q4 20250.2%Texas 2026 fcst1.7%
Sources: MassBenchmarks, Sep 4 [14] [33] [34]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Boston net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceCoastal wind exposure; premiums rising with the national trendSecondary to taxes and regulation
Property taxBoston values +2.6% to $226.4B in FY25; FY26 roll published; commercial-residential classification shift debate continues [35]Watch the residential-commercial tax split
Population and migrationMetro population +0.2% in 2025 to 5.03M residents [21]Slow growth tempers renter demand
RegulationRent-control initiative barred from the 2026 ballot by the SJC; statewide prohibition intact [6]Expect a renewed push in 2028
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Chicago occupancy 94.9%, rents +3.2% [36]. Seattle vacancy 7.2% [37]. Charlotte vacancy 4.0% [38]Boston and Chicago share the low-supply profile

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023 [3]. The 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1, up from 4.78% on Sep 4 [2], and the 30-year mortgage hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [27]. August PCE inflation ran 3.4% headline and 3.0% core [9]. After a weak September jobs report, futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting [13].

10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Oct 1. Up from 4.78% on Sep 4
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [2]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Raised Sep 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote
Federal Reserve, Sep 16 [3] [4]
SOFR
3.87%
Oct 1. Up from 3.66% on Sep 3
New York Fed, Oct 1 [16]
Next Fed Meeting
Oct 27 to 28
Futures price about an 86% chance of a hold
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Oct 1 [13]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.4%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Aug PCE 3.4% (core 3.0%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Sep 30 [8] [9]

The Rate Stack: How a Boston Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.37%+0.83% spread10-year Treasury 5.24%Agency 5-year 6.07%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Sep 16; U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [4] [2] [5] [3]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house; the gap over the Treasury is what the market has added since 2022.
10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Daily close, Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [2]
30-Year Mortgage
7.28%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1
Freddie Mac, Oct 1 [27]
Spread, latest month
2.04 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 1; FRED, Sep 4 [27] [2] [40]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 1, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [2] [27] [39]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks kept tightening. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24% on Oct 1 [2], with the UK gilt at 4.92% on Sep 30 [17], Germany at 3.60% [18] and Japan at 3.09% on Oct 1 [19]. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sep 16 [41], and the ECB deposit rate reached 2.50% on Oct 2 [20]. Higher global yields feed directly into U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States5.24%United Kingdom4.92%Germany3.60%Japan3.09%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 1; Bank of England, Sep 30; Deutsche Bundesbank, Oct 1; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 1 [2] [17] [18] [19]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Boston cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Oct 2, raised from 2.25% effective Sep 16 [20] [42]The second ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 1 [17]Gilt yields at 4.92% on Sep 30, an inflation worry [17]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.00%, held Jul 31 [43]. JGB 10-year 3.09% on Oct 1 [19]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [45]Plus for Texas jobs and royalties; minus for inflation and Fed posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [44]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers

Sources

Show the 45 sources cited in this edition
  1. Matthews: Boston, MA Multifamily Market Report August 2026
  2. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  3. Federal Reserve: Monetarypolicy
  4. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  5. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  6. Matthews: Boston, MA Multifamily Market Report June 2026
  7. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Boston, September 2026
  8. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  9. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
  10. REBusiness: Greystar Breaks Ground on 390-Unit Multifamily Project in Taunton, Massachusetts
  11. REBusiness: Colliers Arranges $44.5M Construction Loan for Multifamily Project in Norwood, Massachusetts
  12. REBusiness: MPZ, Capstone Near Completion of $36M Multifamily Adaptive Reuse Project in Templeton, Massachusetts
  13. CNBC: Stock market today live updates
  14. UMass Donahue Institute: MassBenchmarks Bulletin, May 2026
  15. Northmarq: Boston Multifamily Market Insights
  16. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  17. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  18. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  19. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  20. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  21. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  22. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  23. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Sep 2026
  24. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Sep 2026
  25. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  26. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  27. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  28. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  29. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  30. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  31. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  32. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  33. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas employment forecast strengthens (Jul 17, 2026)
  34. Dallas Fed: Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens
  35. City of Boston: FY26 Property Taxes
  36. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Chicago Multifamily Q2 2026
  37. Cushman & Wakefield: Seattle Bellevue MarketBeats
  38. Northmarq: Charlotte Multifamily Market Report
  39. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  40. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  41. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Sep 16, 2026
  42. ECB: Official interest rates
  43. Bank of Japan: Mpmdeci
  44. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  45. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Oct 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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