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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
October 2026
Charlotte MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Charlotte entered 2026 in the middle of its delivery wave: about 18,000 units under construction across roughly 70 properties at Q1, though Q1 starts of 958 units were the lowest quarterly total since 2025 [1].
  • Nationally, construction fell to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory, and Q2 deliveries of 88,000 ran 27% below a year ago [2].
  • The 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.78% on Sep 4 to 5.24% on Oct 1, and the agency 5-year fixed rate stood at 6.07% on Aug 31 [3] [4].
  • The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023 [5].
  • North Carolina added about 72,300 jobs, 1.4%, in 2025, but hiring has slowed for a fifth straight year [6] [7].

Where We Are Now

  • Conventional occupancy was 87.8% in September and effective rents fell 2.1% year over year to $1,597; 35% of properties offer concessions averaging 10.9% of rent [8].
  • Demand is outrunning supply: 18,865 conventional units were absorbed in the year to September against 11,795 added [8].
  • Pricing holds at a 5.0% average cap rate and $214,600 per unit, about 107 basis points below agency 5-year debt at 6.07% [1] [4].
  • The 10-year Treasury is 5.24% and SOFR 3.87%, both on Oct 1; the 30-year home mortgage hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [3] [9] [10].
  • Inflation is still above target: August PCE ran 3.4% headline and 3.0% core, and July CPI was 3.4% [11] [12].
  • The metro's population reached 2,938,830 on Jul 1 2025, up 1.9% for the year [13].

Where We're Headed

  • Futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting, after a weak September jobs report [14].
  • Completions are expected to keep slowing through year-end, and vacancy is expected to hold steady as supply pressure eases [15].
  • North Carolina 2026 job forecasts range from 30,000 to 40,000 at the state budget office to 1.6%, about 80,800 jobs, at UNC Charlotte [16] [6].
  • Insurers' 68.3% dwelling-policy filing phases in as 28.5% mid-2026 and 30.9% mid-2027, and Mecklenburg's next revaluation is scheduled for 2027 after the 2023 cycle lifted values 59% [17] [18].
  • Institutions are still buying: Tishman Speyer paid $76.3 million for the 296-unit Berkshire Dilworth in August, while Space Craft began leasing the 389-unit Oxbow and HMF Americana bought land for 221 build-to-rent units [19] [20] [21].

What It Means for Charlotte

  1. Refinance math got harder. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 and the 10-year Treasury hit 5.24% on Oct 1 [5] [3]. With agency 5-year debt at 6.07%, Charlotte owners with 2026 or 2027 maturities should model refinancing at 6% or higher [4].
  2. Negative leverage is the price of growth. Charlotte's 5.0% average cap rate sits about 107 basis points below agency 5-year debt at 6.07% [1] [4]. Buyers are paying $214,600 per unit on the bet that demand keeps outrunning supply [1].
  3. Demand is outrunning the delivery wave. Charlotte absorbed 18,865 conventional units in the year to September against 11,795 added [8]. Occupancy is 87.8% including lease-ups, and completions are expected to keep slowing through year-end [8] [15].
  4. Concessions are doing the negotiating. Effective rents fell 2.1% year over year to $1,597 in September, and 35% of conventional properties offer concessions averaging 10.9% of rent [8]. Demand is strong, but pricing power sits with renters where lease-ups compete.
  5. North Carolina's cooldown reaches Charlotte. North Carolina added 41,900 jobs in the year to January, a 0.8% gain, and hiring has slowed for a fifth straight year [22] [7]. For Charlotte, slower job growth means softer renter demand while a filed 68.3% dwelling-insurance increase phases in [17].
  6. National rates set Charlotte's cost of capital. The Fed's September hike and a 10-year Treasury at 5.24% on Oct 1 keep U.S. borrowing costs elevated [5] [3]. Futures price about an 86% chance of a hold on Oct 27 to 28, so Charlotte gets no near-term relief [14].
  7. Global yields keep pressure on Charlotte. The UK gilt yields 4.92%, Germany 3.60% and Japan 3.09%, with the ECB deposit rate at 2.50% on Oct 2 [23] [24] [25] [26]. Higher global yields feed into U.S. borrowing costs, keeping Charlotte debt expensive.

Charlotte Multifamily

Charlotte's apartment market is working through its delivery wave, not past it. Conventional occupancy was 87.8% in September and effective rents fell 2.1% year over year to $1,597, with 35% of properties offering concessions averaging 10.9% of rent [8]. Demand is the bright spot: 18,865 conventional units absorbed over the past year, well ahead of the 11,795 added [8]. Pricing holds at a 5.0% average cap rate and $214,600 per unit [1].

Average cap rate
5.0%
Average price $214,600 per unit, Q1
Matthews, Mar 15 [1]
Rent growth
-2.1%
Effective rent, September 2026
ALN, Sep 30 [8]
Occupancy (conventional)
87.8%
September 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Sep 30 [8]
Population growth
+1.9%
2025 metro estimate; 2.94M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [13]

Charlotte Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5% average (Matthews, Mar 15); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Charlotte estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.3 to 4.7%Class B4.8 to 5.4%Class C5.5 to 6.4%avg 5%debt 6.07%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Matthews, Mar 15 [1] [4]

Charlotte vs. National Fundamentals

Charlotte conventional effective rents fell 2.1% in September while U.S. stabilized rents slipped 0.4%; vacancy runs above the national rate. [8] [27]
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Charlotte-2.1%U.S.-0.4%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Charlotte12.2%U.S.7%
CharlotteUnited States
Sources: ALN, Sep 30; Apartment List, Sep 29 [8] [27]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Charlotte

Charlotte absorbed 18,865 conventional units in the year to September against 11,795 added, while construction starts keep thinning. [8] [1]
MetricNationalCharlotteRead-through
Deliveries88K in Q2, down 27% from a year ago [2]11,795 conventional units added in the 12 months to September [8]Completions expected to keep slowing through year-end [15]
Under construction475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory [2]About 18,000 units across roughly 70 properties, Q1 [1]Q1 starts of 958 units were the lowest quarterly total since 2025 [1]
Absorption vs. deliveries362K absorbed vs 358K delivered, four quarters [2]18,865 conventional units absorbed in the 12 months to September; Q2 absorption about 4,800, a quarterly peak [8] [15]Annual absorption of 18,865 topped the 11,795 units added [8]
2026 outlookPeaked, now tightening [2]Vacancy expected to hold steady through year-end as completions slow [15]35% of conventional properties offer concessions, averaging 10.9% of rent [8]
Supply pressure by submarketNorth Charlotte, Huntersville/Cornelius and University show the steepest construction declines [15]South End and York County rent growth nearly flat [15]
Price trend$214,600 per unit average in Q1 [1]Tishman Speyer paid about $258K per unit for Berkshire Dilworth in August [19]
Sources: ALN, Sep 30; Matthews, Mar 15; Northmarq, Jul 29 [8] [1] [15] [2] [28] [19]

Charlotte Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Sep 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Sep 2026 [29]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [30]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [31]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Aug
Census BPS [32]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Charlotte$1,378-2.6%3,6512,826+16%
Rock Hill$1,262-0.7%475666+110%

Charlotte Transactions and Deal Flow

Charlotte's late-summer deal flow paired one closed institutional sale with new development activity. Tishman Speyer bought the 296-unit Berkshire Dilworth for $76.3 million, its first Charlotte acquisition [19]. Greystar sold the 252-unit Milo in Raleigh [33]. Space Craft began leasing the 389-unit Oxbow in Optimist Park [20], and HMF Americana bought a Harris Teeter site for a 221-unit build-to-rent community [21].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Berkshire Dilworth [19]Dilworth [19]296 [19]Tishman Speyer (TS Plus fund); sold by Berkshire Residential [19]$76.3M [19]Aug 5 [19]
Milo [33]Raleigh [33]252 [33]Undisclosed / Greystar [33]Undisclosed [33]Aug 28 [33]
Oxbow [20]Optimist Park [20]389 [20]Space Craft; leasing began at new development [20]Development [20]Sep 16 [20]
Harris Teeter site, Stallings to Weddington [21]Southeast metro Charlotte [21]221 [21]HMF Americana; land acquired for build-to-rent community, part age-restricted [21]Development [21]Sep 4 [21]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs moved up into October: the 30-year home mortgage rate hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1, up 57 basis points from 6.71% on Sep 3, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Oct 1 [10][34][3]. Agency lending remains the workhorse for apartment deals, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [35]. SOFR stood at 3.87% on Oct 1, keeping floating-rate bridge money near 6 to 8% [9].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Aug 31 [4]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [35]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [35]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)5.92-6.07%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.56-5.96% / 5.62-6.02% / 5.68-6.08%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.87-6.02% / 5.92-6.07% / 5.88-6.03%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [4]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed, Oct 1 [36] [9]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 [37] [9]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [38]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.28%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1 [10]

North Carolina

North Carolina added 41,900 jobs in the year to January 2026, a 0.8% gain, and the state budget office forecasts 30,000 to 40,000 net jobs for 2026 with unemployment rising from 3.8% in January to about 4.4% by year-end [22] [16]. Hiring is slowing for a fifth straight year [7]. For Charlotte owners, that means slower renter demand growth while a filed 68.3% dwelling insurance increase phases in starting mid-2026 [17].

NC job growth, 2025
1.4%
About 72,300 net jobs
UNC Charlotte Belk College, Sep 4 [6]
2026 forecast
30K to 40K
OSBM net jobs forecast for 2026
NC OSBM, Apr 11 [16]
Jan 2026, year over year
0.8%
+41,900 jobs; fifth year of slowdown
NC Commerce, Apr 8 [22] [7]
Unemployment, 2026 path
3.8% to 4.4%
January to year-end forecast
NC OSBM, Apr 11 [16] [22]

North Carolina Job Growth

Annual job growth is slowing; 2026 forecasts cluster below the 2025 pace.
0%1%2%NC 20251.4%Jan 2026 YoY0.8%2026 fcst, OSBM0.7%2026 fcst, UNCC1.6%
Sources: NC Commerce, Apr 8; NC OSBM, Apr 11 [22] [16] [6]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Charlotte net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceInsurers filed for a 68.3% average dwelling-policy increase, phased 28.5% mid-2026 and 30.9% mid-2027 [17]Largest scheduled cost increase in any market we cover
Property taxMecklenburg's 2023 revaluation lifted home values 59% on average; 2026 bills are rising and the next revaluation is scheduled for 2027 [18]Underwrite the 2027 reset
Population and migrationMetro Charlotte population 2,938,830 on Jul 1 2025, up 1.9% for the year [13]Growth continues despite the national immigration slowdown
Key sectorsInformation +5.5% and education and health +4.9% expected to lead 2026 job growth [41]Banking headcount flat; Charlotte job growth still above the U.S. rate [42]
Peer metros (Q2 2026)DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% YoY. Atlanta vacancy 7.2%. Phoenix vacancy 11.3% [40]Charlotte is the outlier on both vacancy and rent growth
Sources: NC DOI, Nov 3; Census Bureau, Jul 1 [17] [18] [13] [39] [40] [41] [42]

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023 [5]. The 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1, up from 4.78% on Sep 4 [3], and the 30-year mortgage hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [10]. August PCE inflation ran 3.4% headline and 3.0% core [11]. After a weak September jobs report, futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting [14].

10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Oct 1. Up from 4.78% on Sep 4
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [3]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Raised Sep 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote
Federal Reserve, Sep 16 [5] [43]
SOFR
3.87%
Oct 1. Up from 3.66% on Sep 3
New York Fed, Oct 1 [9]
Next Fed Meeting
Oct 27 to 28
Futures price about an 86% chance of a hold
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Oct 1 [14]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.4%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Aug PCE 3.4% (core 3.0%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Sep 30 [12] [11]

The Rate Stack: How a Charlotte Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.37%+0.83% spread10-year Treasury 5.24%Agency 5-year 6.07%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Sep 16; U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [43] [3] [4] [5]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house; the gap over the Treasury is what the market has added since 2022.
10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Daily close, Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [3]
30-Year Mortgage
7.28%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1
Freddie Mac, Oct 1 [10]
Spread, latest month
2.04 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 1; FRED, Sep 4 [10] [3] [45]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 1, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [3] [10] [44]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks kept tightening. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24% on Oct 1 [3], with the UK gilt at 4.92% on Sep 30 [23], Germany at 3.60% [24] and Japan at 3.09% on Oct 1 [25]. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sep 16 [46], and the ECB deposit rate reached 2.50% on Oct 2 [26]. Higher global yields feed directly into U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States5.24%United Kingdom4.92%Germany3.60%Japan3.09%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 1; Bank of England, Sep 30; Deutsche Bundesbank, Oct 1; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 1 [3] [23] [24] [25]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Charlotte cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Oct 2, raised from 2.25% effective Sep 16 [26] [47]The second ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 1 [23]Gilt yields at 4.92% on Sep 30, an inflation worry [23]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.00%, held Jul 31 [48]. JGB 10-year 3.09% on Oct 1 [25]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [50]Plus for Texas jobs and royalties; minus for inflation and Fed posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [49]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers

Sources

Show the 50 sources cited in this edition
  1. Matthews: Charlotte, NC Multifamily Market Report Q1 2026
  2. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  3. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  4. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  5. Federal Reserve: Monetarypolicy
  6. UNC Charlotte Belk College: NC economy ends 2025 strong, forecast shows steady 2026
  7. commerce.nc.gov: NC Commerce Search AddToAny share buttons Share to: Author(s): Andrew Berger-Gross Welcome to the Janua
  8. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Charlotte, September 2026
  9. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  10. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  11. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
  12. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  13. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  14. CNBC: Stock market today live updates
  15. Northmarq: Charlotte Multifamily Market Report
  16. osbm.nc.gov: Economic Outlook
  17. ncdoi.gov: Insurance companies request 68.3% increase for dwelling policies
  18. WSOC / Mecklenburg County Assessor: Mecklenburg revaluation
  19. REBusiness: Tishman Speyer Acquires Berkshire Dilworth Apartments in Charlotte for $76.3M
  20. REBusiness: Space Craft Begins Leasing 389-Unit Apartment Community in Charlotte
  21. REBusiness: HMF Americana Acquires Land from Harris Teeter in Metro Charlotte, Plans Build-to-Rent Development
  22. commerce.nc.gov: North Carolina’s January Employment Figures Released
  23. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  24. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  25. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  26. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  27. Apartment List: National rent data
  28. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat, Q2 2026
  29. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Sep 2026
  30. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Sep 2026
  31. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, 2025 annual
  32. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, year to date through Aug 2026
  33. REBusiness: JLL Arranges Sale of 252-Unit Multifamily Community in Raleigh
  34. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  35. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  36. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  37. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  38. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  39. Axios Charlotte (Census data): Charlotte growth defies U.S. immigration-driven slowdown (Mar 27, 2026)
  40. CRE Daily: Dallas Multifamily Rents Slide in 2026
  41. NC OSBM: Economic Outlook
  42. Northmarq: Charlotte job growth outpaces national rate
  43. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  44. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  45. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  46. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Sep 16, 2026
  47. ECB: Official interest rates
  48. Bank of Japan: Mpmdeci
  49. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  50. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Oct 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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