Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
October 2026
College Station-Bryan MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts
How We Got Here
Texas A&M passed 80,000 students in fall 2025, with 81,354 system-wide and more than 74,000 on campus, then set a five- to seven-year plan to slow enrollment growth [1].
Developers answered with student towers near Northgate, including a 19-story project scheduled for summer 2026 and Azura Residences fully leased by April [2].
Agency 5-year quotes rose from 5.29% on Mar 9 to 6.07% on Aug 31 as the 10-year Treasury reached 4.78% on Sep 4 [3][4].
Texas job growth ran 1.9% annualized in the first half but slowed to 1.6% year to date through July, below the 2% long-run average [5][6].
National construction thinned to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory, while College Station's next large projects were dated for 2028 [7][2].
Where We Are Now
ALN puts September conventional occupancy at 89.9%, down 2.0% year over year, with effective rent down 0.8% to $1,101 and asking rent up 1.0% to $1,132 [8].
Concessions are spreading: 34% of conventional properties offer them, averaging 6.8% of rent, and 12-month absorption was negative 333 units against 84 added [8].
Apartment List shows the College Station median rent at $1,244, down 3.0% year over year; local vacancy of 10.1% sits above the U.S. stabilized 7.0% [9][10].
Financing costs are higher: the 10-year Treasury was 5.24% on Oct 1, SOFR 3.87% on Oct 1, agency 5-year debt 6.07% on Aug 31, and the 30-year mortgage 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [4][11][3][12].
Brazos County appraisals rose about 10% in 2026, and the published income-housing cap rate range of 6.5 to 8.5% remains above agency debt [13][14][3].
No College Station transactions were reported in the 90 days to Oct 2; the latest student trades were the 1,128-bed Sterling purchase reported Jun 5 and the 801-bed Junction deal reported Mar 11 [15][16].
Where We're Headed
The Fed target range is 3.75 to 4.00% after the Sep 16 increase, and futures price about an 86% chance of a hold at the Oct 27 to 28 meeting [17][18].
If rates stay high, underwrite agency debt near 6.07% and floating bridge money around 6.1 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1 [3][19][20][11].
The next supply wave is dated June 2028: Rambler Northgate, 342 units and $125 million, plus Ariza Summit Crossing, 12 buildings and $50 million [2].
No major conventional completions are expected before mid-2028, giving College Station time to work through concessions before the next test [2][8].
Demand growth should slow with enrollment: the metro had 287,476 residents on Jul 1 2025, up 0.5%, and Texas cut its 2026 job forecast to 1.7% on Aug 21 [21][1][6].
What It Means for College Station
Refinance math has tightened. The 10-year Treasury was 5.24% on Oct 1 and SOFR 3.87%, with agency 5-year debt at 6.07% on Aug 31. College Station owners with 2026 to 2027 maturities should model higher coupons and lower proceeds [4][11][3].
Positive leverage still exists here. Brazos CAD's published 6.5 to 8.5% income-housing cap rate range sits above 6.07% agency debt, a rare cushion for College Station buyers, though the range is not a conventional market average [14][3].
Fundamentals are softening, not collapsing. September conventional occupancy was 89.9%, effective rent fell 0.8% to $1,101, and 34% of properties offered concessions averaging 6.8%. College Station still has institutional student demand, but lease-up discipline matters [8][15].
The next wave is dated. Rambler Northgate and Ariza Summit Crossing target June 2028, with no major conventional completions expected before mid-2028. College Station has time to work through concessions before the next supply test [2][8].
Texas growth helps, but modestly. Texas cut its 2026 job forecast to 1.7% on Aug 21 after year-to-date growth slowed to 1.6%. For College Station, state momentum supports hiring, but enrollment and the academic calendar drive apartments [6][1].
National rates set the ceiling. The Fed raised to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16, futures price an Oct hold, and U.S. stabilized vacancy is 7.0%. College Station pricing and refinance terms will follow national credit more than local headlines [17][18][10].
Global yields reach this market. The UK 10-year gilt was 4.9224% on Sep 30, Germany 3.60% and Japan 3.092% on Oct 1, and the ECB deposit rate reached 2.50% on Oct 2. Higher global yields keep College Station borrowing costs elevated [22][23][24][25].
College Station-Bryan Multifamily
College Station-Bryan conventional occupancy fell to 89.9% in September, down 2.0% from a year earlier, and effective rent slipped 0.8% to $1,101 even as asking rent rose 1.0% to $1,132 [8]. Apartment List shows the city median down 3.0% to $1,244 [9]. Concessions are spreading: 34% of conventional properties now offer them, averaging 6.8% of rent [8]. The next big deliveries are dated June 2028 [2].
Cap rate range (income housing)
6.5 to 8.5%
Income-restricted range; no conventional market average published
The largest cities in the College Station-Bryan, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Sep 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
No College Station transactions were reported in the 90 days to Oct 2. The most recent trades remain student housing: the PCCP and Dinerstein joint venture's 1,128-bed Sterling College Station purchase, reported Jun 5 [15], and Landmark Properties and Stockbridge's 801-bed Junction Cottages & Townhomes acquisition, reported Mar 11 [16]. Nationally, student housing preleasing reached 93% in August for the 2026-2027 academic year [31].
Property
Submarket
Units
Buyer / Seller
Price / Cap
Reported
No transactions were reported in the 90 days to Oct 2.
Sources: Connect CRE, Jun 5; REBusinessOnline, Mar 11 [15][16]
Multifamily Capital Markets
Financing costs moved up into October: the 30-year home mortgage rate hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1, up 57 basis points from 6.71% on Sep 3, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Oct 1 [12][32][4]. Agency lending remains the workhorse for apartment deals, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven[33]. SOFR stood at 3.87% on Oct 1, keeping floating-ratebridge money near 6 to 8% [11].
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
Texas gave back some of its second-quarter momentum. Employment grew 1.9% annualized in the first half [5], but payrolls fell 0.1% annualized in July, pulling year-to-date growth to 1.6%, below the state's 2% long-run average [6]. The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 1.7% on Aug 21, from 2.0% in July [6]. Manufacturing wage pressure eased in August, then the Dallas Fed wages index rebounded to 27.4 in September from 21.1 [35][36].
Costs and policy that hit College Station net operating income directly.
Factor
Status
Read-through
Property insurance
Texas FAIR Plan residential rate changes took effect Sep 1 [38]
First renewals at the new rates land this quarter; FAIR Plan covers residential property, not commercial multifamily [38]
Property tax
Brazos County appraisals up about 10% overall in 2026; CAD income-housing cap rate range 6.5 to 8.5% [13]
Appraisal growth well below Dallas and Tarrant
Population and migration
College Station-Bryan MSA 287,476 residents on Jul 1 2025, up 0.5% [21]
Enrollment, not migration, drives apartment demand
Energy sector
Brent $96.02 and WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 against 21.6 million before the conflict [39]
Supports Houston and Permian jobs; indirect College Station benefit
Peer metros (Q2 2026)
Houston vacancy 7.1% in Q2, down 40 basis points[40]. DFW stabilized vacancy 9.6% in Q2 [41]
College Station follows the academic calendar more than the Texas cycle
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023 [17]. The 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1, up from 4.78% on Sep 4 [4], and the 30-year mortgage hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [12]. August PCE inflation ran 3.4% headline and 3.0% core [42]. After a weak September jobs report, futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting [18].
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 1, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [4][12][45]
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks kept tightening. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24% on Oct 1 [4], with the UK gilt at 4.92% on Sep 30 [22], Germany at 3.60% [23] and Japan at 3.09% on Oct 1 [24]. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sep 16 [46], and the ECB deposit rate reached 2.50% on Oct 2 [25]. Higher global yields feed directly into U.S. borrowing costs.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 1; Bank of England, Sep 30; Deutsche Bundesbank, Oct 1; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 1 [4][22][23][24]
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
Factor
Status
Why College Station cares
European Central Bank
Deposit facility 2.50% on Oct 2, raised from 2.25% effective Sep 16 [25][47]
The second ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Disclosures. Compiled Oct 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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