NVest AnalyticsNVest Analytics
Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
October 2026
Dallas-Fort Worth MSA. Multifamily
Get this monthly report by email.
Receive the current Dallas-Fort Worth edition now and one report each month. Unsubscribe or change markets any time.

Request a monthly report for another market

Tell us the metro area. If there is enough interest we will add it as a standing monthly edition.

More markets are added as readers request them.

The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • DFW spent 2024 to 2025 digesting a delivery wave; by Q2 2026 the pipeline was 30,200 units, down 21.3% year over year [1].
  • Demand caught up in Q2: 10,800 units absorbed versus 6,600 delivered, after 18,600 absorbed in the first half [1][2].
  • Conventional fundamentals still lagged into September: occupancy 88.4%, effective rent $1,512, rent down 1.0% year over year [3].
  • Financing tightened first: agency 5-year money was 6.07% on Aug 31 while the DFW average cap rate was 5.25% in Q1 [4][5].
  • The Fed raised the target range to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16, and the 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1 [6][7].

Where We Are Now

  • DFW conventional occupancy is 88.4% in September, up 1.0% year over year, while effective rent of $1,512 is down 1.0% [3].
  • Concessions remain part of the lease-up reality: 46% of conventional properties offer them, with the average package at 8.8% of rent [3].
  • Negative leverage is wider on the latest local pricing: DFW average cap rate 5.25% in Q1 versus agency 5-year debt at 6.07% on Aug 31 [5][4].
  • Population is still the offset: DFW grew 1.5% to 8.48 million residents in the 2025 metro estimate [8].
  • Texas momentum cooled: job growth was 1.9% annualized in H1, 1.6% year to date through July, and the 2026 forecast was cut to 1.7% on Aug 21 [9][10].
  • Costs are rising beside rents: 2026 apartment appraisals increased 19.6% in Dallas County and 23.8% in Tarrant County, and FAIR Plan rate changes took effect Sep 1 [11][12].

Where We're Headed

  • The next Fed decision is Oct 27 to 28, and futures price about an 86% chance of a hold after the weak September jobs report [13].
  • The rate floor stays high: 10-year Treasury 5.24% on Oct 1, 30-year mortgage 7.28% in the week of Oct 1, SOFR 3.87% on Oct 1 [7][14][15].
  • Supply keeps thinning: U.S. construction is 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory, while about 21K DFW deliveries are forecast for 2026 versus roughly 30K in 2025 [2][16].
  • DFW vacancy is forecast to fall 40 basis points to 6.6% by year-end, with effective rents up 1.8% in 2026 [16].
  • Global yields point the same way: UK 4.9224% on Sep 30, Germany 3.6% on Oct 1, Japan 3.092% on Oct 1, ECB deposit rate 2.5% on Oct 2 [17][18][19][20].

What It Means for Dallas

  1. Refinance math has reset. DFW owners with 2026 or 2027 maturities should model agency debt near 6.07% from Aug 31, a 10-year Treasury at 5.24% on Oct 1, and SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1, not a quick return to lower coupons [4][7][15].
  2. Negative leverage is wider. DFW average cap rate is 5.25% in Q1 against agency 5-year debt at 6.07% on Aug 31, about 82 basis points underwater. Deals still need low basis, low leverage, or strong conviction on the 2026 rent turn [5][4][16].
  3. Fundamentals are improving slowly. DFW conventional occupancy reached 88.4% in September while rent fell 1.0%. Q2 absorption of 10,800 units beat 6,600 deliveries, and the pipeline shrank 21.3% year over year, but concessions remain widespread [3][1].
  4. Texas still feeds DFW demand. Texas job growth cooled from 1.9% annualized in H1 to 1.6% year to date through July, and the 2026 forecast is 1.7%. DFW still added population at 1.5% to 8.48 million, supporting absorption [9][10][8].
  5. National rates set DFW floor. For DFW, the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00% range, 10-year Treasury at 5.24%, 30-year mortgage at 7.28%, and an 86% futures-priced hold on Oct 27 to 28 mean financing relief is not the base case [6][7][14][13].
  6. Global yields reach DFW loans. DFW borrowing costs face upward pressure from abroad: UK gilts 4.9224% on Sep 30, Germany 3.6% on Oct 1, Japan 3.092% on Oct 1, and the ECB deposit rate 2.5% on Oct 2 [17][18][19][20].

DFW Multifamily

DFW's rebalance is gaining traction. Conventional occupancy reached 88.4% in September, up 1.0% year over year, while effective rent of $1,512 was down 1.0% [3]. Second-quarter absorption of 10,800 units more than doubled the prior quarter and topped deliveries of 6,600 [1]. The construction pipeline shrank to 30,200 units, down 21.3% from a year ago [1]. Rents are still falling, but demand now outpaces supply.

Average cap rate
5.25%
Q1 2026; $175,300 per unit
Northmarq, Jun 25 [5]
Rent growth, year over year
-1.0%
Effective rent, September 2026
ALN, Sep 30 [3]
Occupancy (conventional)
88.4%
September 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Sep 30 [3]
Population growth
+1.5%
2025 metro estimate; 8.48M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [8]

DFW Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5.25% average (Northmarq, Jun 25); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of DFW estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.6 to 5.0%Class B5.1 to 5.7%Class C5.8 to 6.7%avg 5.25%debt 6.07%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Northmarq, Jun 25 [5] [4]

DFW vs. National Fundamentals

DFW rents fell 2.8% year over year in Q2 while U.S. asking rents rose 1.5% [1] [2].
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%DFW-1%U.S.+1.5%Vacancy0%5%10%15%DFW11.6%U.S.8.9%
DFWUnited States
Sources: ALN, Sep 30; Cushman & Wakefield, Aug 5 and Jul 14 [1] [2] [3]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and DFW

DFW demand outpaced supply in Q2, and the construction pipeline keeps shrinking.
MetricNationalDFWRead-through
Deliveries88K in Q2, down 27% from a year ago [2]6.6K in Q2 [1]; 7,962 year to date through May [21]About 21K DFW deliveries forecast for 2026, down from roughly 30K in 2025 [16]
Under construction475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory [2]30.2K in Q2, down 21.3% year over year [1]; 45,498 in Jul [21]U.S. pipeline lowest since 2013; DFW pipeline down sharply from the 2023 peak
Absorption vs. deliveries362K absorbed vs 358K delivered, four quarters [2]10.8K absorbed vs 6.6K delivered in Q2 [1]; 18.6K absorbed in H1 [2]U.S. first positive since early 2022; DFW demand now outpaces supply
2026 vacancy forecastPeaked, now tightening [2]6.6% by year-end, down 40 basis points [16]DFW effective rents forecast to grow 1.8% in 2026 [16]
Supply pressure by DFW submarketFort Worth added The Vickery, 321 units downtown, in Aug [22]46% of conventional properties offer concessions, up 4.4% year over year; average package 8.8% of rent [3]
Submarket rent trend, trailing 12 monthsUptown Dallas +4%; intown Fort Worth +3%; Denton -6 to -7% [23]Urban core leading; outer suburbs still digesting supply

DFW Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Sep 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Sep 2026 [24]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [25]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [26]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Aug
Census BPS [27]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Arlington$1,250-4.0%812684+26%
Carrollton$1,479-2.2%1,1500-100%
Dallas$1,324-1.5%4,8832,639-19%
Denton$1,207-5.7%2,508979-41%
Fort Worth$1,336-1.7%3,3484,284+92%
Frisco$1,724-4.2%4,562660-78%
Garland$1,280-4.4%48428+13x
Grand Prairie$1,387-0.7%240891+457%
Irving$1,429+0.6%30416+20x
McKinney$1,494-4.9%1,391677-27%
Mesquite$1,241-3.4%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Plano$1,618-2.5%175611+424%

DFW Transactions and Deal Flow

Four conventional apartment transactions were reported across the metroplex in the last 30 days: two financings and two brokered sales. The largest was a $78.7 million refinancing of The Flynn at Live Oak in East Dallas [28], followed by a $62.3 million acquisition loan for the 374-unit Louis Las Colinas in Irving [29]. Buyers remain selective, with sales closing from Plano to Sachse [30][31].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
The Flynn at Live OakEast Dallas327Conor Commercial Real Estate and Globe Corp; $78.7M refinancing from Blue Owl Capital, arranged by JLL [28]FinancingSep 4 [28]
Louis Las ColinasIrving374RPM Living and Baltisse; sold by Draper and Kramer [29]$62.3M acquisition loan from Walton Street Capital [29]Sep 9 [29]
Hathaway at Willow BendPlano229Granite Towers Equity Group; sold by S2 Capital (Newmark) [30]UndisclosedSep 2 [30]
Woodbridge VillasSachse22237th Parallel Properties; seller undisclosed [31]Undisclosed, 2002 build [31]Sep 29 [31]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs moved up into October: the 30-year home mortgage rate hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1, up 57 basis points from 6.71% on Sep 3, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Oct 1 [14][32][7]. Agency lending remains the workhorse for apartment deals, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [33]. SOFR stood at 3.87% on Oct 1, keeping floating-rate bridge money near 6 to 8% [15].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Aug 31 [4]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [33]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [33]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)5.92-6.07%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.56-5.96% / 5.62-6.02% / 5.68-6.08%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.87-6.02% / 5.92-6.07% / 5.88-6.03%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [4]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed, Oct 1 [34] [15]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 [35] [15]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [36]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.28%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1 [14]

Texas

Texas gave back some of its second-quarter momentum. Employment grew 1.9% annualized in the first half [9], but payrolls fell 0.1% annualized in July, pulling year-to-date growth to 1.6%, below the state's 2% long-run average [10]. The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 1.7% on Aug 21, from 2.0% in July [10]. Manufacturing wage pressure eased in August, then the Dallas Fed wages index rebounded to 27.4 in September from 21.1 [37] [38].

Texas job growth, H1 2026
1.9% annualized
Year to date through Jul: 1.6%
Dallas Fed, Jul 31 [9] [10]
2026 employment forecast
1.7%
Cut Aug 21 from 2.0%. Range 1.3 to 2.1%
Dallas Fed, Aug 21 [10]
Manufacturing wage index
27.4
Sep reading, up from 21.1 in Aug
Dallas Fed, Sep 28 [38] [37]
Labor supply
Tightening
Unemployment 4.5%; average hourly earnings $35.82
Dallas Fed, Aug 21 and Sep 10 [10] [39]

Texas Job Growth vs. Long-Run Average

Annualized job growth versus the state's 2% long-run average. Hover bars.
0%1%2%Long-run avg2%H1 20261.9%2026 YTD1.6%2026 fcst1.7%
Sources: Dallas Fed, Jul 31 and Aug 21 [10] [9]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit DFW net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceTexas FAIR Plan residential rate changes took effect Sep 1 [12]First renewals at the new rates land this quarter; FAIR Plan does not cover commercial multifamily [12]
Property tax2026 apartment appraisals: Dallas County +19.6% to $81.8B; Tarrant County +23.8% to $45.3B, after +25% in 2025 [11]Effective rates about 2.0% (Dallas) and 2.1% (Tarrant); higher values mean higher bills [11]
Population and migrationDFW #1 in U.S. with +100K residents and +47K households year over year through Mar [16]Core demand driver for absorption
Energy sectorBrent $96.02 and WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 against 21.6 million before the conflict [40]Supports Houston and Permian jobs; indirect DFW benefit
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Houston vacancy 7.1% in Q2, down 40 bp, its first meaningful decline in two years [41]Houston is turning at the same time as DFW

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023 [6]. The 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1, up from 4.78% on Sep 4 [7], and the 30-year mortgage hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [14]. August PCE inflation ran 3.4% headline and 3.0% core [42]. After a weak September jobs report, futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting [13].

10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Oct 1. Up from 4.78% on Sep 4
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [7]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Raised Sep 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote
Federal Reserve, Sep 16 [6] [43]
SOFR
3.87%
Oct 1. Up from 3.66% on Sep 3
New York Fed, Oct 1 [15]
Next Fed Meeting
Oct 27 to 28
Futures price about an 86% chance of a hold
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Oct 1 [13]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.4%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Aug PCE 3.4% (core 3.0%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Sep 30 [44] [42]

The Rate Stack: How a DFW Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.37%+0.83% spread10-year Treasury 5.24%Agency 5-year 6.07%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Sep 16; U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [43] [7] [4] [6]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house; the gap over the Treasury is what the market has added since 2022.
10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Daily close, Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [7]
30-Year Mortgage
7.28%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1
Freddie Mac, Oct 1 [14]
Spread, latest month
2.04 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 1; FRED, Sep 4 [14] [7] [46]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 1, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [7] [14] [45]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks kept tightening. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24% on Oct 1 [7], with the UK gilt at 4.92% on Sep 30 [17], Germany at 3.60% [18] and Japan at 3.09% on Oct 1 [19]. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sep 16 [47], and the ECB deposit rate reached 2.50% on Oct 2 [20]. Higher global yields feed directly into U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States5.24%United Kingdom4.92%Germany3.60%Japan3.09%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 1; Bank of England, Sep 30; Deutsche Bundesbank, Oct 1; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 1 [7] [17] [18] [19]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy DFW cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Oct 2, raised from 2.25% effective Sep 16 [20] [48]The second ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 1 [17]Gilt yields at 4.92% on Sep 30, an inflation worry [17]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.00%, held Jul 31 [49]. JGB 10-year 3.09% on Oct 1 [19]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [40]Plus for Texas jobs and royalties; minus for inflation and Fed posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [50]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers

Sources

Show the 50 sources cited in this edition
  1. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Dallas/Fort Worth Multifamily Q2 2026
  2. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  3. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Dallas-Fort Worth, September 2026
  4. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  5. Northmarq: Dallas multifamily rents and occupancy climb to open 2026
  6. Federal Reserve: Monetarypolicy
  7. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  8. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  9. Dallas Fed: Texas Economic Indicators
  10. Dallas Fed: Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens
  11. Houston Chronicle: New 19-story student housing tower near Texas A&M
  12. Texas FAIR Plan: Texas FAIR Plan Association TFPA Approved Rate Changes and Annual Adjustment Updates
  13. CNBC: Stock market today live updates
  14. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  15. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  16. D Magazine: DFW Apartment Market Rebalances as Demand Outpaces New Supply
  17. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  18. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  19. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  20. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  21. Yardi Matrix: Dallas Multifamily Market Report
  22. REBusiness: Trademark Completes 321-Unit Vickery Apartments in Downtown Fort Worth
  23. REJournals: North Texas multifamily turns the corner as the construction pipeline empties (Aug 17, 2026)
  24. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Sep 2026
  25. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Sep 2026
  26. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, 2025 annual
  27. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, year to date through Aug 2026
  28. REBusiness: JLL Arranges $78.7M Loan for Refinancing of East Dallas Apartment Community
  29. Connect CRE: 374-Unit Las Colinas Apartments Trade Hands
  30. REBusiness: Newmark Brokers Sale of 229-Unit Apartment Complex in Plano
  31. REBusiness: 37th Parallel Acquires 222-Unit Apartment Complex in Sachse, Texas
  32. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  33. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  34. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  35. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  36. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  37. Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
  38. Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
  39. Dallas Fed: Texas Economic Indicators
  40. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
  41. Northmarq: Houston Multifamily Market Insights
  42. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
  43. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  44. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  45. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  46. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  47. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Sep 16, 2026
  48. ECB: Official interest rates
  49. Bank of Japan: Mpmdeci
  50. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
Disclosures. Compiled Oct 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
Privacy. If you open this report from our email, its link carries a private subscriber code, so your rating, comments and reading are linked to your subscription; otherwise the feedback bar and subscription form are anonymous unless you choose to enter an email. We store a first-party browser identifier, the issue you rated, your rating, optional comments, scroll depth and time on page, and a coarse referrer category (search, social, email, direct). We do not store IP addresses; a short-lived one-way hash is used only to limit abuse and is discarded daily. Subscriber emails are held in a mailing list separate from any product waitlist, are used only to send and improve this report, and are never sold or shared.
You rated this edition. Update my rating