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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
October 2026
San Antonio MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • San Antonio's supply wave peaked in late 2024 with more than 13,000 units delivered in 12 months, about 6% of inventory [1].
  • Rents fell as the wave landed and were still down about 1.8% year over year by mid-2026 as owners used concessions to fill new product [1].
  • Nationally, construction fell to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory, tightening the future supply backdrop [2].
  • The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote, and the 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.78% on Sep 4 to 5.24% on Oct 1 [3] [4].
  • Texas job growth ran 1.6% annualized through July, below the state's 2% long-run average [5].

Where We Are Now

  • Conventional occupancy reached 88.0% in September, up 2.4% from a year earlier, as renters absorbed 7,309 units against 3,279 added over the trailing 12 months [6].
  • Effective rent fell 3.6% to $1,187 in September, and 55% of conventional properties offer concessions averaging 9.7% of rent [6].
  • The pipeline has nearly emptied: 2,638 units under construction after 12 straight quarterly declines [7].
  • Financing costs sit high: the 10-year Treasury is 5.24% on Oct 1, SOFR is 3.87%, and the agency 5-year fixed rate was 6.07% on Aug 31 [4] [8] [9].
  • Negative leverage of about 47 basis points persists: an average cap rate of 5.6% against 6.07% agency debt [10] [9].
  • Metro population reached 2,813,140 on Jul 1 2025, up 1.4% from 2024 [11].

Where We're Headed

  • Futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting after a weak September jobs report [12].
  • With 2,638 units underway, 2027 deliveries will be a fraction of the 2024 peak of more than 13,000 units in 12 months [7] [1].
  • Occupancy is recovering ahead of rent; expect the year-over-year rent decline to narrow through 2027 as the remaining lease-ups stabilize [6] [1].
  • The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 Texas employment forecast to 1.7% on Aug 21, with a range of 1.3 to 2.1% [5].
  • Deal flow is thin but active: Rosewood began leasing the 359-unit Tobin Estates Phase III, CBRE arranged a refinancing for the 181-unit Citadel Urban, and the 49-unit Park Hill traded [13] [14] [15].
  • Global yields keep rising: UK gilts at 4.92% on Sep 30, Japan at 3.09% on Oct 1 and the ECB deposit rate at 2.50% on Oct 2, all feeding into U.S. borrowing costs [16] [17] [18].

What It Means for San Antonio

  1. Refinance math got worse. The Fed raised its target range on Sep 16 and the 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1. San Antonio owners with 2026 or 2027 maturities should model refinancing near the 6.07% agency 5-year rate of Aug 31, not the 5.42% quoted on Jan 20 [3] [4] [9].
  2. Negative leverage persists. San Antonio's average cap rate is 5.6% against 6.07% agency 5-year debt, about 47 basis points of negative leverage. Purchases only pencil with strong rent-growth conviction, seller financing or an assumed loan [10] [9].
  3. Occupancy is healing first. Conventional occupancy reached 88.0% in September, up 2.4% year over year, as absorption of 7,309 units more than doubled the 3,279 added. Rent recovery follows once the remaining lease-ups fill [6].
  4. Concessions are the real rent story. Effective rent fell 3.6% to $1,187 in September, and 55% of conventional properties offer concessions averaging 9.7% of rent. The decline should narrow as the 2024 delivery wave finishes leasing [6] [1].
  5. Texas growth is slowing. Texas payrolls fell in July, year-to-date job growth slowed to 1.6%, and the Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 1.7%. For San Antonio, that means steady but unspectacular renter demand as lease-ups fill [5].
  6. Washington sets your rate floor. The Fed's target range sits at 3.75 to 4.00%, futures price an 86% chance of a hold on Oct 27 to 28, and the 10-year Treasury is 5.24%. San Antonio borrowing costs stay elevated into 2027 [3] [12] [4].
  7. Global yields push San Antonio rates. UK gilts yield 4.92%, Japan 3.09% and the ECB deposit rate is 2.50%, keeping upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. That feeds directly into what San Antonio owners pay for debt [16] [17] [18].

San Antonio Multifamily

San Antonio conventional occupancy reached 88.0% in September, up 2.4% from a year earlier, as renters absorbed 7,309 units against 3,279 added over the trailing 12 months [6]. Effective rent fell 3.6% to $1,187, a deeper decline than earlier this year, and 55% of conventional properties now offer concessions averaging 9.7% of rent [6]. Occupancy is recovering first; rents follow once remaining lease-ups fill.

Average cap rate
5.6%
All classes combined; compressing on sales velocity
Apartment Loan Store / Northmarq, Sep 4 [10]
Rent growth
-3.6%
Effective rent, September 2026
ALN, Sep 30 [6]
Occupancy (conventional)
88.0%
September 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Sep 30 [6]
Population growth
+1.4%
2025 metro estimate; 2.81M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [11]

San Antonio Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5.6% average (Apartment Loan Store / Northmarq, Sep 4); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of San Antonio estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.9 to 5.3%Class B5.4 to 6.0%Class C6.1 to 7.0%avg 5.6%debt 6.07%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Apartment Loan Store / Northmarq, Sep 4 [10] [9]

San Antonio vs. National Fundamentals

San Antonio conventional rents fell 3.6% in September while U.S. rents slipped 0.4%; local vacancy ran 12.0% versus 7.0% nationally [6] [19].
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%San Antonio-3.6%U.S.-0.4%Vacancy0%5%10%15%San Antonio12%U.S.7%
San AntonioUnited States
Sources: ALN, Sep 30; Apartment List, Sep 29 [6] [19]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and San Antonio

The pipeline has shrunk for 12 straight quarters, and trailing-year absorption of 7,309 units more than doubled the 3,279 added [7] [6].
MetricNationalSan AntonioRead-through
Deliveries88K in Q2, down 27% from a year ago [2]Net change of 3,279 conventional units, trailing 12 months [6]Peak: more than 13,000 units in the 12 months to late 2024, about 6% of inventory [1]
Under construction475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory [2]2,638 units; 12th straight quarterly decline [7]Thinnest pipeline of the four Texas metros relative to inventory
Absorption vs. deliveries362K absorbed vs 358K delivered, four quarters [2]7,309 absorbed vs 3,279 added, trailing 12 months [6]Absorption more than double supply; occupancy up 2.4% YoY [6]
2026 vacancy forecastPeaked, now tightening [2]Lease-up of 2024 to 2025 deliveries continues [1]Headline vacancy will fall as lease-ups stabilize
Supply pressure by submarketFar north and northwest (Stone Oak, Vance Jackson corridor) took the delivery wave; The Jax, 322 units, traded to Kairoi [20]55% of conventional properties offer concessions, averaging 9.7% of rent [6]
Rent trend, year over year-3.6% conventional effective rent, September; -1.8% mid-2026 [6] [1]Decline deepened; occupancy still recovering ahead of rent

San Antonio Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Sep 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Sep 2026 [21]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [22]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [23]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Aug
Census BPS [24]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
New Braunfels$1,218-7.0%0346n/a, no 2025 permits
San Antonio$1,121-4.3%1,401440-53%
Universal City$1,058-4.8%00n/a, no 2025 permits

San Antonio Transactions and Deal Flow

Since early July, three San Antonio-area apartment milestones were reported: Rosewood began leasing the 359-unit Tobin Estates Phase III in Alamo Heights [13], CBRE arranged a refinancing for the 181-unit Citadel Urban in Westover Hills [14], and Marcus & Millichap brokered the sale of the 49-unit Park Hill in Kerrville [15].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Tobin Estates Phase III [13]Alamo Heights [13]359 [13]Rosewood Property Co., developer [13]Development milestone; no sale price [13]Jul 21 [13]
Citadel Urban [14]Westover Hills [14]181 [14]Refinancing arranged by CBRE [14]Financing, amount undisclosed [14]Aug 21 [14]
Park Hill [15]Kerrville, northwest of San Antonio [15]49 [15]Marcus & Millichap brokered sale; parties undisclosed [15]Undisclosed [15]Sep 25 [15]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs moved up into October: the 30-year home mortgage rate hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1, up 57 basis points from 6.71% on Sep 3, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Oct 1 [25][26][4]. Agency lending remains the workhorse for apartment deals, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [27]. SOFR stood at 3.87% on Oct 1, keeping floating-rate bridge money near 6 to 8% [8].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Aug 31 [9]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [27]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [27]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)5.92-6.07%BWE, Aug 31 [9]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.56-5.96% / 5.62-6.02% / 5.68-6.08%BWE, Aug 31 [9]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.87-6.02% / 5.92-6.07% / 5.88-6.03%BWE, Aug 31 [9]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [9]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed, Oct 1 [28] [8]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 [29] [8]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [30]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.28%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1 [25]

Texas

Texas gave back some of its second-quarter momentum. Employment grew 1.9% annualized in the first half [31], but payrolls fell 0.1% annualized in July, pulling year-to-date growth to 1.6%, below the state's 2% long-run average [5]. The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 1.7% on Aug 21, from 2.0% in July [5]. Manufacturing wage pressure eased in August, then the Dallas Fed wages index rebounded to 27.4 in September from 21.1 [32] [33].

Texas job growth, H1 2026
1.9% annualized
Year to date through Jul: 1.6%
Dallas Fed, Jul 31 [31] [5]
2026 employment forecast
1.7%
Cut Aug 21 from 2.0%. Range 1.3 to 2.1%
Dallas Fed, Aug 21 [5]
Manufacturing wage index
27.4
Sep reading, up from 21.1 in Aug
Dallas Fed, Sep 28 [33] [32]
Labor supply
Tightening
Unemployment 4.5%; average hourly earnings $35.82
Dallas Fed, Aug 21 and Sep 10 [5] [34]

Texas Job Growth vs. Long-Run Average

Annualized job growth versus the state's 2% long-run average. Hover bars.
0%1%2%Long-run avg2%H1 20261.9%2026 YTD1.6%2026 fcst1.7%
Sources: Dallas Fed, Jul 31 and Aug 21 [5] [31]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit San Antonio net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceTexas FAIR Plan residential rate changes took effect Sep 1: homeowners -2.6%, dwelling fire +3.5%, tenant -25% [35]First renewals at the new rates land this quarter; FAIR Plan covers residential policies, not commercial multifamily [35]
Property tax2026 apartment appraisals: Bexar County +3.8%; average home -0.1%; county forecasts weakest tax-revenue year since 2008 [39]Mildest appraisal pressure in Texas; watch local rate increases to fill budget gaps
Population and migrationMetro population 2,813,140 on Jul 1 2025, up 1.4% from 2024 [11]Steady in-migration supports renter demand as the supply wave leases up
Energy sectorBrent $96.02 and WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 against 21.6 million before the conflict [36]Supports Houston and Permian jobs; indirect San Antonio benefit
Peer metros (Q2 2026)DFW stabilized vacancy 9.6%, rents $1,470 with first quarterly gain in over a year [37]. Houston vacancy 7.1%, down 40 bp [38]Texas metros are stabilizing as supply pipelines thin

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023 [3]. The 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1, up from 4.78% on Sep 4 [4], and the 30-year mortgage hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [25]. August PCE inflation ran 3.4% headline and 3.0% core [40]. After a weak September jobs report, futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting [12].

10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Oct 1. Up from 4.78% on Sep 4
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [4]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Raised Sep 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote
Federal Reserve, Sep 16 [3] [41]
SOFR
3.87%
Oct 1. Up from 3.66% on Sep 3
New York Fed, Oct 1 [8]
Next Fed Meeting
Oct 27 to 28
Futures price about an 86% chance of a hold
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Oct 1 [12]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.4%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Aug PCE 3.4% (core 3.0%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Sep 30 [42] [40]

The Rate Stack: How a San Antonio Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.37%+0.83% spread10-year Treasury 5.24%Agency 5-year 6.07%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Sep 16; U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [41] [4] [9] [3]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house; the gap over the Treasury is what the market has added since 2022.
10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Daily close, Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [4]
30-Year Mortgage
7.28%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1
Freddie Mac, Oct 1 [25]
Spread, latest month
2.04 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 1; FRED, Sep 4 [25] [4] [44]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 1, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [4] [25] [43]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks kept tightening. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24% on Oct 1 [4], with the UK gilt at 4.92% on Sep 30 [16], Germany at 3.60% [45] and Japan at 3.09% on Oct 1 [17]. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sep 16 [46], and the ECB deposit rate reached 2.50% on Oct 2 [18]. Higher global yields feed directly into U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States5.24%United Kingdom4.92%Germany3.60%Japan3.09%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 1; Bank of England, Sep 30; Deutsche Bundesbank, Oct 1; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 1 [4] [16] [45] [17]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy San Antonio cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Oct 2, raised from 2.25% effective Sep 16 [18] [47]The second ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 1 [16]Gilt yields at 4.92% on Sep 30, an inflation worry [16]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.00%, held Jul 31 [48]. JGB 10-year 3.09% on Oct 1 [17]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [36]Plus for Texas jobs and royalties; minus for inflation and Fed posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [49]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers

Sources

Show the 49 sources cited in this edition
  1. Apartments.com: Where Is Vacancy the Highest? Top 12 Markets in Q2 2026
  2. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  3. Federal Reserve: Monetarypolicy
  4. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  5. Dallas Fed: Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens
  6. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, San Antonio, September 2026
  7. Cushman and Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  8. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  9. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  10. Apartment Loan Store: Cap Rates in San Antonio, Texas
  11. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  12. CNBC: Stock market today live updates
  13. REBusiness: Rosewood Begins Leasing 359-Unit Multifamily Project in San Antonio
  14. REBusiness: CBRE Arranges Loan for Refinancing of 181-Unit Apartment Complex in San Antonio
  15. REBusiness: Marcus & Millichap Brokers Sale of 49-Unit Apartment Building in Kerrville, Texas
  16. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  17. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  18. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  19. Apartment List: National rent data
  20. Yield PRO: JLL Completes Sale of 322-unit The Jax in San Antonio (Sep 2025)
  21. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Sep 2026
  22. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Sep 2026
  23. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, 2025 annual
  24. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, year to date through Aug 2026
  25. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  26. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  27. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  28. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  29. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  30. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  31. Dallas Fed: Texas Economic Indicators
  32. Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
  33. Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
  34. Dallas Fed: Texas Economic Indicators
  35. Texas FAIR Plan: Texas FAIR Plan Association TFPA Approved Rate Changes and Annual Adjustment Updates
  36. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
  37. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Dallas/Fort Worth Multifamily Q2 2026
  38. Northmarq: Houston Multifamily Market Insights
  39. San Antonio Report: On average, Bexar County homes decreased in value 0.11% in 2026
  40. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
  41. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  42. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  43. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  44. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  45. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  46. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Sep 16, 2026
  47. ECB: Official interest rates
  48. Bank of Japan: Mpmdeci
  49. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
Disclosures. Compiled Oct 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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