Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
October 2026
Seattle MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts
How We Got Here
The 2025 boom left a hangover: deliveries peaked, then 2026 year-to-date deliveries fell to 1,770 units through Q2 while 15,276 remained under construction [1].
Demand held up better than payrolls: conventional absorption totaled 5,662 units over 12 months, outpacing new supply [2].
The rate backdrop tightened: the 10-year Treasury rose from 4.78% on Sep 4 to 5.24% on Oct 1 [3].
The Fed lifted the target range to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16, and SOFR reached 3.87% on Oct 1 [4][5].
Washington's 2026 job forecast was cut to 0.1% from 0.4%, while metro population still grew 1.0% to 4,161,883 [6][7].
Where We Are Now
Seattle conventional occupancy reached 92.2% in September, up 0.4 points from a year ago, while effective rent slipped 0.6% to $2,173 and 28% of properties offered concessions[2].
Local vacancy is 7.8% versus 7.0% nationally; Seattle rents fell 0.6% while U.S. stabilized rents fell 0.4% [2][8].
The average cap rate is 5.7%, up 10 basis points in a year, with pricing at $239,000 per unit [9].
Leverage is still negative: a 5.7% cap rate sits about 37 basis points below the 6.07% agency 5-year fixed quote from Aug 31 [9][10].
Supply is lighter but not finished: 1,770 units delivered year to date through Q2, 15,276 under construction, and 5,662 absorbed over 12 months [1][2].
Jobs remain the drag: Washington added 11,100 in Q2, but the Seattle area is losing about 550 jobs a month and 2026 growth is forecast at 0.1% [11][12][6].
Where We're Headed
The next Fed meeting is Oct 27 to 28, and futures price about an 86% chance of a hold after the weak September jobs report [13].
Until a new quote lands, agency 5-year fixed debt remains the Aug 31 6.07% benchmark against a 5.7% Seattle cap rate[10][9].
The next supply test is already visible: 15,276 units are under construction, with Denny Triangle, Overlake and Port Gardner carrying the largest projects [1][14].
Population is doing the work payrolls used to: the metro added 43,068 residents, 1.0%, in the year to Jul 1 2025 [7].
Global yields still point up: U.S. 5.24% on Oct 1, UK 4.92% on Sep 30, Germany 3.60% and Japan 3.09% on Oct 1, ECB 2.50% on Oct 2 [3][15][16][17][18].
What It Means for Seattle
Financing is still upside down. Seattle's 5.7% average cap rate sits below the 6.07% agency 5-year fixed quote from Aug 31, about 37 basis points of negative leverage, so new debt only pencils with stronger rents or lower basis [9][10].
Fundamentals are tightening slowly. Conventional occupancy reached 92.2% in September while effective rent slipped 0.6% to $2,173 and 28% of properties offered concessions; absorption of 5,662 units over 12 months still beat supply [2].
Supply is down, not gone. Seattle delivered 1,770 units year to date through Q2 and had 15,276 under construction; the near-term lull helps occupancy, but Denny Triangle, Overlake and Port Gardner still hold large projects [1][14].
Deals show pricing discipline. Recent sales ranged from $304,245 to $351,579 per unit in Seattle proper, while the 524-unit Griffis North Creek trade showed institutional appetite at an undisclosed price [19][20][21].
Washington jobs set the ceiling. For Seattle, Washington's stalled labor market is the main check on rent growth: the 2026 forecast is 0.1%, the Seattle area is losing about 550 jobs a month, and population growth of 1.0% is supporting demand [6][12][7].
National rates pressure Seattle. The Fed's Sep 16 increase to 3.75 to 4.00%, a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.24% on Oct 1 and futures pricing about an 86% chance of a hold at the next meeting keep Seattle refinancing costs elevated [4][3][13].
Global yields reach Seattle loans. For Seattle borrowers, higher overseas yields limit relief at home: the UK gilt was 4.92% on Sep 30, Germany 3.60% and Japan 3.09% on Oct 1, with the ECB deposit rate at 2.50% on Oct 2 [15][16][17][18].
Seattle Multifamily
Seattle conventional occupancy reached 92.2% in September, up 0.4 points from a year ago, while effective rent slipped 0.6% to $2,173 and 28% of properties offered concessions[2]. Absorption of 5,662 units over the past year outpaced new supply, and metro population grew 1.0% to 4,161,883 [7]. The drag is jobs: Washington added 11,100 in Q2 and forecasts just 0.1% growth for 2026 [11].
Denny Triangle, Overlake, Port Gardner (Everett) carry the largest projects [14]
Lynnwood and Snohomish suburbs active for trades [14]
Price trend
$239,000 per unit, flat QoQ; $312 per square foot [9]
Pricing held while cap rates edged up
Seattle Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Sep 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Aug Census BPS [25]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
Auburn
$1,583
+0.3%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Bellevue
$2,440
+1.5%
293
1,449
+642%
Bothell
$2,365
+0.4%
143
0
-100%
Federal Way
$1,789
+0.0%
0
6
n/a, no 2025 permits
Lakewood
$1,533
+2.6%
388
20
-92%
Lynnwood
$1,739
-0.8%
60
0
-100%
Puyallup
$1,845
-0.2%
308
0
-100%
Redmond
$2,287
+1.4%
1,119
598
-20%
Renton
$2,059
-0.4%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Seattle
$2,088
-2.8%
3,033
1,306
-35%
Shoreline
$1,886
-4.6%
11
570
+77x
Tacoma
$1,670
-1.9%
557
674
+82%
Seattle Transactions and Deal Flow
Three conventional apartment sales were reported in the last 30 days. The largest was GID's purchase of the 524-unit Griffis North Creek in Bothell from Griffis Residential, at an undisclosed price [21]. In Seattle proper, Aperture on Fifth in Denny Triangle sold for $32.2 million, or $304,245 per unit [19], and East Howe Steps in Eastlake sold for $35 million, or $351,579 per unit [20]. Institutional buyers continue to write checks across price points in this market.
Financing costs moved up into October: the 30-year home mortgage rate hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1, up 57 basis points from 6.71% on Sep 3, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Oct 1 [26][27][3]. Agency lending remains the workhorse for apartment deals, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven[28]. SOFR stood at 3.87% on Oct 1, keeping floating-ratebridge money near 6 to 8% [5].
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
Washington's labor market has stalled. The June forecast cut 2026 state job growth to 0.1%, from 0.4% in February [6], and the Seattle area is losing about 550 jobs a month [12]. Population growth of 1.0%, adding 43,068 residents in the year to Jul 1 2025, is doing the work payrolls used to [7].
Seattle sits mid-pack on vacancy with positive quarterly rent growth[37]
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023 [4]. The 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1, up from 4.78% on Sep 4 [3], and the 30-year mortgage hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [26]. August PCE inflation ran 3.4% headline and 3.0% core [40]. After a weak September jobs report, futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting [13].
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 1, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [3][26][43]
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks kept tightening. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24% on Oct 1 [3], with the UK gilt at 4.92% on Sep 30 [15], Germany at 3.60% [16] and Japan at 3.09% on Oct 1 [17]. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sep 16 [45], and the ECB deposit rate reached 2.50% on Oct 2 [18]. Higher global yields feed directly into U.S. borrowing costs.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 1; Bank of England, Sep 30; Deutsche Bundesbank, Oct 1; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 1 [3][15][16][17]
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
Factor
Status
Why Seattle cares
European Central Bank
Deposit facility 2.50% on Oct 2, raised from 2.25% effective Sep 16 [18][46]
The second ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Disclosures. Compiled Oct 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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