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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
Boston MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Boston stayed underbuilt: 14,418 units were under construction as of September, with permitting running well below typical levels [1].
  • The 10-year Treasury climbed to 5.24% on Oct 1 before easing to 4.94% on Oct 30, lowering the benchmark behind apartment debt [2] [3].
  • The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [4].
  • Agency 5-year fixed pricing reached 6.38% on Oct 26, well above Boston cap rates near 5.2% [5] [1].
  • Rent control was kept off the November ballot, leaving the statewide ban intact [6].

Where We Are Now

  • Conventional occupancy was 91.8% in October, up 0.9% from a year ago, with effective rent up just 0.5% to $2,936 [7].
  • Concessions keep spreading: 26% of conventional properties now offer deals [7].
  • Demand is outpacing supply: 8,000 units absorbed against 4,500 delivered in Q3 [1].
  • Pricing is still rich for this cycle: $456,000 per unit year to date, with cap rates near 5.2% [1].
  • Inflation remains above target: September PCE ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [8].
  • Recent deal flow mixed a $4.9 million Mattapan sale with a $44.5 million Norwood construction loan and a 223-unit Jackson Square completion [9] [10] [11].

Where We're Headed

  • Futures price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 Fed meeting [12].
  • With the 10-year Treasury at 4.94% on Oct 30, model agency debt near the 6.38% Oct 26 quote, not spring pricing [3] [5].
  • Supply should keep thinning: 14,418 units are underway, but deliveries and permitting are slowing [1].
  • Massachusetts is the demand risk: employment fell 0.4% year over year in Q1, with GDP growth projected at 0.8 to 1.3% [13].
  • Watch whether concessions keep climbing from 26% of conventional properties as new units lease up [7].

What It Means for Boston

  1. Refinance math has reset. Boston owners with 2026 or 2027 maturities should model agency 5-year debt near 6.38% from Oct 26, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.94% on Oct 30 [5] [3].
  2. Negative leverage still prices deals. Boston cap rates near 5.2% sit about 118 basis points below 6.38% agency debt, so buyers need rent growth, lower basis, or more equity to clear leverage [1] [5].
  3. Fundamentals are firm but cooling. Boston conventional occupancy was 91.8% in October, up 0.9% from a year ago, but rent growth slowed to 0.5% and concessions reached 26% of properties [7].
  4. Supply is the Boston cushion. Boston absorbed 8,000 units against 4,500 delivered in Q3, and the 14,418 units under construction face permitting well below typical levels, keeping supply from overwhelming demand [1].
  5. Massachusetts jobs are the swing factor. For Boston, Massachusetts employment down 0.4% year over year in Q1 and GDP growth projected at 0.8 to 1.3% matter more than supply; weak hiring would hit lease-up and renewal demand [13].
  6. National rates set Boston's floor. Boston borrowing costs follow the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00% target held Oct 28, SOFR at 3.95% on Oct 30, and the 10-year Treasury at 4.94%, even if local fundamentals stay tight [4] [14] [3].
  7. Global yields reach Boston loans. Boston mortgage pricing is exposed to global bonds: UK gilts 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2 and Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, with the ECB deposit rate at 2.50% on Nov 2 [15] [16] [17] [18].

Boston Multifamily

Boston's apartment fundamentals keep tightening. Conventional occupancy reached 91.8% in October, up 0.9% from a year ago, while effective rent rose just 0.5% to $2,936 as concessions spread to 26% of properties [7]. Matthews puts September vacancy at 5.2%, with absorption of 8,000 units outpacing 4,500 deliveries [1]. Cap rates hold near 5.2% and pricing rose to $456,000 per unit [1]. Population growth remains minimal at 0.2% [19].

Average cap rate
5.2%
September 2026, all-class blended
Matthews, Oct 7 [1]
Rent growth
+0.5%
Effective rent, October 2026
ALN, Oct 31 [7]
Occupancy (conventional)
91.8%
October 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Oct 31 [7]
Population growth
+0.2%
2025 metro estimate; 5.03M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [19]

Boston Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5.2% average (Matthews, Oct 7); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Boston estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.5 to 4.9%Class B5.0 to 5.6%Class C5.7 to 6.6%avg 5.2%debt 6.38%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Matthews, Oct 7 [1] [5]

Boston vs. National Fundamentals

Boston asking rent growth of 2.0% trails the national 2.3%; vacancy of 5.2% sits well below the U.S. 8.6% [1] [20].
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Boston+0.5%U.S.+2.3%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Boston8.2%U.S.8.6%
BostonUnited States
Sources: ALN, Oct 31; Matthews, Oct 7; Cushman & Wakefield, Oct 14 [1] [20] [7] [21] [22]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Boston

Boston absorbed 8,000 units against 4,500 delivered in Q3; the national pipeline keeps thinning [1] [20].
MetricNationalBostonRead-through
Deliveries250K+ year to date through Q3, down 25% year over year [20]4,500 units delivered in Q3 [1]Completions slowing considerably
Under constructionFewer than 480K units underway, lowest nominal level since 2015 [20]14,418 units as of September [1]Permitting well below typical levels
Absorption vs. deliveriesNearly 350K absorbed year to date, up 14% year over year [20]8,000 absorbed vs 4,500 delivered in Q3 [1]Demand outpacing new supply
2026 outlookVacancy down more than 90 basis points from Q4 2025 peak [20]Rent control off the November ballot [6]Regulatory uncertainty reduced
Supply pressure by submarket70% of tracked markets have smaller pipelines than a year ago [20]Metro West corridor most active by deal count [23]Boston Dynamics Waltham expansion worth watching [23]
Price trend$228,777 per unit average, Q3 year-ending [24]$456,000 per unit, 2026 year-to-date sales [1]Cap rates holding near 5.2% [1]

Boston Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Oct 2026 [25]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [26]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [27]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep
Census BPS [28]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Boston$2,453+1.6%1,8671,270-9%
Cambridge$3,122+3.2%34316+12x
Framingham$1,921-1.6%1094+12x
Norwood$2,471+2.5%8277+46x
Quincy$2,266+0.7%112168+100%
Waltham$2,382+0.3%00None in 2025 or 2026
Weymouth Town$2,019-0.4%1410-100%

Boston Transactions and Deal Flow

Boston-area apartment activity over the past 60 days mixed one small sale with construction and recapitalization. Marcus & Millichap negotiated the $4.9 million sale of an 18-unit Mattapan portfolio [9], while Lansing Melbourne recapitalized a 156-unit Nashua property with equity from Leon Capital Group [29]. TCB and the Boston Housing Authority completed a 223-unit Jackson Square redevelopment [11], and Colliers arranged a $44.5 million construction loan for 145 units in Norwood [10]. For owners, capital is still funding suburban new supply while conventional asset sales remain scarce.

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
259 Lenox St. projectNorwood145 [10]Colliers arranged construction loan; five-story building, 20% of units affordable [10]$44.5M financing [10]Sep 10 [10]
Mildred C. Hailey redevelopment, Phase IJackson Square223 [11]The Community Builders and Boston Housing Authority completed redevelopment [11]Development [11]Sep 23 [11]
Delhi Street PortfolioMattapan18 [9]Undisclosed$4.9M sale negotiated by Marcus & Millichap [9]Oct 22 [9]
Sources: REBusinessOnline, Sep 10 to Oct 22 [10] [11] [29] [9]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [5]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [3] [2]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [14]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [30].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [5]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [30]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [30]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)6.23-6.38%BWE, Oct 26 [5]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.95-6.35% / 5.98-6.38% / 6.01-6.41%BWE, Oct 26 [5]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x6.18-6.33% / 6.19-6.34% / 6.10-6.25%BWE, Oct 26 [5]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [31]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed , Oct 1 (Estimated)
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 (Estimated)
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [32]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.24%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29 [33]
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [30] [5] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35]

Massachusetts

Massachusetts is trailing the nation. Employment fell 0.4% year over year in Q1 2026, and MassBenchmarks projects GDP growth of 0.8 to 1.3% this year [13]. The Boston metro added just 0.2% in population in 2025, reaching 5.03 million residents [19]. The rent-control question is off the November ballot; the statewide ban stands [6].

MA employment, Q1 2026
-0.4%
Estimated
Estimate
MA GDP growth, 2026
0.8 to 1.3%
Estimated
Estimate
Metro population, 2025
+0.2%
2025 metro estimate; 5.03M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [19]
Rent control
Blocked
Off the November 2026 ballot
Matthews, Aug 27 [6]

Massachusetts Job Growth

Massachusetts employment fell 0.4% year over year in Q1 2026, trailing national job growth. [13]
0%1%2%MA Q4 20250%MA Q1 2026-0.4%U.S. Q4 20250.2%
Sources: MassBenchmarks, Sep 4 [13] [36] [37]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Boston net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceCoastal wind exposure; premiums rising with the national trendSecondary to taxes and regulation
Property taxBoston values +2.6% to $226.4B in FY25; FY26 roll published; commercial-residential classification shift debate continues [38]Watch the residential-commercial tax split
Population and migrationMetro population +0.2% in 2025 to 5.03M residents [19]Slow growth tempers renter demand
RegulationRent-control initiative removed from the November 2026 ballot; statewide prohibition intact [6]Expect a renewed push in 2028
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Chicago occupancy 94.9%, rents +3.2%; Seattle vacancy 7.2%; Charlotte vacancy 4.0% [39]Boston and Chicago share the low-supply profile

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [4]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [3], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [40]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [8]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [12].

10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Oct 30. Down from 5.24% on Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [3] [2]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Held Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote
Federal Reserve, Oct 28 [4] [41]
SOFR
3.95%
Oct 30. Up from 3.87% on Oct 1
New York Fed, Oct 30 [14]
Next Fed Meeting
Dec 9
Futures price about a 75% chance of a hike
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Nov 1 [12]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.6%
Jul CPI 3.4%. Sep PCE 3.6% (core 3.1%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Oct 29 [42] [8]

The Rate Stack: How a Boston Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the policy rate to what a borrower pays: Fed midpoint 3.875% [41], Treasury 4.94% Oct 30 [3], agency 6.38% Oct 26.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.07%+1.44% spread10-year Treasury 4.94%Agency 5-year 6.38%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Oct 28; U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Capital Markets, Oct 26 [41] [3] [5]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The 30-year mortgage sits 2.30 points over the 10-year Treasury, above the 1980 to date average of 1.84 points [33] [3].
10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Daily close, Oct 30
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [3]
30-Year Mortgage
7.24%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29
Freddie Mac, Oct 29 [33]
Spread, latest month
2.30 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 29; Treasury, Oct 30 [33] [3]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [3] [33] [43]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [3], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [15], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [16] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [17]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [4], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [18]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States4.94%United Kingdom4.91%Germany3.31%Japan2.82%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [3] [15] [16] [17]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Boston cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Nov 2 [18]Keeps global yields anchored higher and funding costs elevated
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 30 [15]Gilt yields at 4.9062% on Oct 29, an inflation worry [15]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.25%, held Oct 31 [44]. JGB 10-year 2.817% on Oct 30 [17]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Hormuz supply risk (Estimated)Energy prices feed into inflation and the Fed's policy posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date (Estimated)A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: ECB, Nov 2; Bank of England, Oct 30; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [18] [15] [17] [44] [45] [46]

Sources

Show the 46 sources cited in this edition
  1. Matthews: Boston, MA Multifamily Market Report September 2026
  2. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  3. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  4. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026
  5. BWE: RHS 538 GRRHP Property types Affordable housing Build-to-rent Hospitality Industrial Manufactured housi
  6. Matthews: Boston, MA Multifamily Market Report August 2026
  7. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Boston, October 2026
  8. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026
  9. REBusiness: Marcus & Millichap Negotiates $4.9M Sale of Boston Apartment Portfolio
  10. REBusiness: Colliers Arranges $44.5M Construction Loan for Multifamily Project in Norwood, Massachusetts
  11. REBusiness: TCB, BHA Complete 223-Unit Multifamily Redevelopment Project in Boston
  12. CNBC: 3 big things were watching in the stock market this week
  13. UMass Donahue Institute: MassBenchmarks Bulletin, May 2026
  14. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  15. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  16. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  17. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  18. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  19. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  20. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  21. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Dallas/Fort Worth Multifamily Q3 2026
  22. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Dallas-Fort Worth, October 2026
  23. Northmarq: Boston Multifamily Market Insights
  24. realpage.com: Largest transactions 3rd quarter 2026
  25. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Oct 2026
  26. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Oct 2026
  27. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  28. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  29. REBusiness: Lansing Melbourne Recapitalizes 156-Unit Multifamily Property in Nashua, New Hampshire
  30. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  31. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  32. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  33. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  34. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  35. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  36. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas employment forecast strengthens (Jul 17, 2026)
  37. Dallas Fed: Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens
  38. City of Boston: FY26 Property Taxes
  39. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Chicago Multifamily Q2 2026
  40. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates
  41. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  42. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  43. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  44. Trading Economics: News Summary Stats Forecast Alerts Actual 2.7720 Daily Change 0.002% Monthly -0.33% Yearly 1.
  45. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  46. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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