Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
Chicago MSA. Multifamily
Get this monthly report by email.Receive the current Chicago edition now and one report each month. Unsubscribe or change markets any time.
Request a monthly report for another market
Tell us the metro area. If there is enough interest we will add it as a standing monthly edition.
More markets are added as readers request them.
The Month in Three Parts
How We Got Here
Chicago stayed a low-supply market: inventory growth is 0.6% and 9,935 units were under construction as of Q2, limiting new competition [1].
Demand cooled but stayed positive: 1,743 units absorbed in H1 2026, down 59% year over year, while deliveries rose 15% to 2,904 [1].
National conditions improved: nearly 350,000 units absorbed year to date against 250,000 deliveries, with U.S. vacancy at 8.6% in Q3 [2].
Money got more expensive before easing: agency 5-year debt was 6.38% on Oct 26, while the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [3][4][5].
The Fed held 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28, and futures moved to price about a 75% chance of a Dec 9 hike [6][7].
Where We Are Now
Conventional occupancy was 92.8% in October and effective rents rose 4.4% year over year, with concessions at 13% of properties [8].
Supply remains thin at 0.6% inventory growth and 9,935 units underway, so lease-up pressure is concentrated rather than broad [1].
October deals mixed suburban and city assets: Associated Bank funded $16.5 million for Eleven5 Lake, and Draper and Kramer bought the 268-unit Albion Evanston [9][10].
Blue Station traded at 96% occupancy, Northmarq placed a $24.7 million refinancing, and Becovic paid $20 million in Andersonville [11][12][13].
Debt sets the pricing bar: agency 5-year money quoted 6.38% on Oct 26 while the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 [3][4].
Illinois added 13,800 jobs over the year to September, unemployment was 4.6%, and metro population grew 0.2% to 9.43 million in 2025 [14][15].
Where We're Headed
Underwrite agency 5-year money at 6.38% from Oct 26; SOFR at 3.95% on Oct 30 keeps floating-rate bridges sensitive to policy [3][16].
The Dec 9 meeting is the swing factor, with futures pricing about a 75% chance of a hike after the Oct 28 hold [7][6].
Inflation still argues against quick relief: September PCE ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core, above the Fed's 2% goal [17].
Scarce supply should keep protecting Chicago occupancy if hiring stays positive, even as concessions bear watching at 13% of properties [1][8].
Global yields are less of a headwind than in early October: Germany was 3.31% on Nov 2 and Japan 2.817% on Oct 30 [18][19].
What It Means for Chicago
Refinance defensively, not opportunistically. For Chicago owners, model agency 5-year debt at 6.38% from Oct 26 and SOFR at 3.95% from Oct 30. The Fed held Oct 28, but futures price about a 75% chance of a Dec 9 hike [3][16][6][7].
Leverage remains execution-dependent. With agency 5-year debt at 6.38% on Oct 26 and SOFR at 3.95% on Oct 30, positive leverage for Chicago owners depends on taxes, expenses and rent growth rather than cheap debt [3][16].
Fundamentals still favor Chicago. Chicago conventional occupancy was 92.8% in October and effective rents rose 4.4% year over year, while U.S. vacancy was 8.6% in Q3 and national absorption outpaced deliveries[8][2].
Scarcity keeps supporting values. Inventory growth of 0.6% and 9,935 units under construction limit new competition, and October sales plus refinancing show lenders and buyers still engage when basis and operations line up [1][9][12].
Illinois growth caps Chicago upside. Illinois added just 13,800 jobs over the year to September, a 0.2% gain with 4.6% unemployment. For Chicago, that means rent growth must come from scarce supply, not a strong state economy [14][1].
Washington still sets Chicago loan costs. For Chicago borrowers, the 3.75 to 4.00% Fed target, September PCE at 3.6% and a 4.94% 10-year Treasury on Oct 30 keep refinancing relief slow and maturity planning urgent [20][17][4].
Global bonds reach Chicago mortgages. Chicago mortgage pricing follows global yields: the U.S. 10-year was 4.94% on Oct 30, UK gilts 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2 and Japan 2.817% on Oct 30 [4][21][18][19].
Chicago Multifamily
Chicago conventional occupancy slipped to 92.8% in October while effective rent growth accelerated to 4.4% year over year, and concessionsspread to 13% of properties [8]. Supply stays thin: inventory growth is just 0.6% with 9,935 units under construction as of Q2 [1]. Nationally, absorption of 350,000 units is outpacing 250,000 deliveries through Q3 [2].
As published in the October 2026 issue; no newer figures were found. Estimated class bands set around the 6% average (JPMorgan Chase outlook); no class-level cap rates were published.
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
$2.8B in sales through July; dealmaking above 2024 [25]
Chicago Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep Census BPS [31]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
Arlington Heights
$1,959
+2.3%
25
0
-100%
Chicago
$1,858
+3.4%
2,899
1,641
-25%
Downers Grove
$1,918
+4.5%
13
0
-100%
Naperville
$2,107
+1.6%
0
57
New: 57 units vs none in 2025
Wheaton
$2,077
-2.6%
0
0
None in 2025 or 2026
Wheeling
$2,029
+1.1%
0
0
None in 2025 or 2026
Chicago Transactions and Deal Flow
Chicago deal flow stayed active in October, split between suburban and city sales and new financing. Kiser Group brokered the 345-unit Blue Station sale in Blue Island [11], Draper and Kramer bought the 268-unit Albion Evanston [10], and Becovic Residential paid $20 million for an Andersonville building [13]. Lenders stayed busy: Associated Bank funded a $16.5 million Libertyville acquisition loan [9] and Northmarq placed a $24.7 million Fannie Mae refinancing [12].
Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [3]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [4][5]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [16]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven[32].
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
Illinois is a slow-growth economy: employers added 13,800 jobs over the year to September, a 0.2% gain, and unemployment was 4.6% [14]. Chicago's apartment market works anyway because almost nothing is being built. The metro population grew 0.2% to 9.43 million in 2025, a third straight year of growth [15]. The 2026 Cook County reassessment of the south and west suburbs remains the operating-cost story for owners.
Statewide employment +0.2% over the year to September [14]
Rent growth is a supply story, not a jobs story [14]
Peer metros (Q2 2026)
Boston vacancy 4.9%, rents +1.1%. Seattle vacancy 6.7%. DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% [42]
Chicago and Boston are the low-supply, positive-rent markets of the group [42]
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [6]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [4], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [43]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [17]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [7].
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [4][35][45]
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [4], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [21], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [18] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [19]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [6], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [46]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [4][21][18][19]
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
Privacy. If you open this report from our email, its link carries a private subscriber code, so your rating, comments and reading are linked to your subscription; otherwise the feedback bar and subscription form are anonymous unless you choose to enter an email. We store a first-party browser identifier, the issue you rated, your rating, optional comments, scroll depth and time on page, and a coarse referrer category (search, social, email, direct). We do not store IP addresses; a short-lived one-way hash is used only to limit abuse and is discarded daily. Subscriber emails are held in a mailing list separate from any product waitlist, are used only to send and improve this report, and are never sold or shared.
