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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
Denver MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Denver's 2024 delivery wave flooded the market and left effective rents falling year over year into 2026; conventional effective rent was still down 0.4% in October [1].
  • U.S. construction fell below 480,000 units, tightening the national backdrop behind Denver's reset [2].
  • Agency 5-year quotes moved from 5.29% on Mar 9 to 6.38% on Oct 26, repricing Denver deals before rents recovered [3].
  • The 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.19% on Jan 2 to 5.24% on Oct 1, then eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 [4] [5].
  • Denver pricing reset with the average cap rate at 5.38% in Q3, up for 19 straight quarters [6].

Where We Are Now

  • Denver conventional occupancy held at 89.4% in October, up 4.1% year over year, while effective rent of $1,809 was down 0.4% [1].
  • Vacancy tightened to 5.9% in Q3 as absorption of 1,819 units ran near 2,292 completions [6].
  • Conventional absorption of 15,222 units topped the 6,024 added over 12 months, so demand is working down supply [1].
  • The pipeline has 15,052 units under construction, 4.1% of inventory, leaving less new competition ahead [6].
  • Inflation remains above target with July CPI at 3.4% and September PCE at 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [7] [8].
  • Financing is tighter: SOFR was 3.95% on Oct 30 and the 30-year mortgage was 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [9] [10].

Where We're Headed

  • After the Oct 28 hold at 3.75 to 4.00%, futures price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point increase at the Dec 9 meeting [11] [12].
  • Denver owners should model agency debt near the 6.38% Oct 26 quote until Treasury yields and spreads settle [3] [5].
  • With absorption close to deliveries, Denver's rent decline should keep narrowing if the 15,052-unit pipeline stays controlled [6] [1].
  • Metro Denver population rose 0.4% to 3,092,037 on July 1, 2025, a slower demand base than earlier this decade [13].
  • October deals show capital still moving: Palomino Park drew $333.3 million in bridge financing and RedPeak bought The Manchester [14] [15].

What It Means for Denver

  1. Refinance math is tighter. Denver owners should underwrite agency debt near 6.38% from Oct 26, with SOFR at 3.95% on Oct 30 keeping floating-rate bridge money expensive for lease-up and value-add plans [3] [9].
  2. Fundamentals have turned. Denver vacancy tightened to 5.9% in Q3 as 1,819 absorbed units ran near 2,292 completions; October conventional occupancy held at 89.4% [6] [1].
  3. Rents still trail occupancy. Denver conventional effective rent was $1,809 in October, down 0.4% year over year, so occupancy is recovering faster than pricing power [1].
  4. Supply is the leverage. Denver has 15,052 units under construction, 4.1% of inventory; buyers and lenders still committed $333.3 million to Palomino Park before rents fully turn [6] [14].
  5. Colorado adds operating friction. Colorado's deposit cap takes effect Jan 1 and receivership powers have been in effect since Aug 6, 2025, while metro Denver population growth was 0.4% in 2025, a modest demand base for Denver owners [16] [17] [13].
  6. Washington raises Denver's hurdle. For Denver, the Fed target range is 3.75 to 4.00% after the Oct 28 hold [11]. The U.S. 10-year Treasury was 4.94% on Oct 30 [5]. Futures price about a 75% chance of an increase Dec 9 [12].
  7. Global yields reach Denver. Denver borrowing costs track global bonds: UK 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2 and Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, with the ECB deposit rate 2.50% on Nov 2 [18] [19] [20] [21].

Denver Multifamily

Denver conventional occupancy held at 89.4% in October, up 4.1% year over year, while effective rent of $1,809 was down just 0.4% [1]. The inflection kept building: vacancy tightened to 5.9% in Q3 as absorption of 1,819 units ran near 2,292 completions, and the pipeline shrank to 15,052 units [6]. Cap rates averaged 5.38%, up for 19 straight quarters [6].

Average cap rate
5.38%
All classes, Q3 2026
Matthews, Oct 29 [6]
Rent growth
-0.4%
Effective rent, October 2026
ALN, Oct 31 [1]
Occupancy (conventional)
89.4%
October 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Oct 31 [1]
Population growth
+0.4%
2025 metro estimate; 3.09M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [13]

Denver Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5.38% average (Matthews, Oct 29); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Denver estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.7 to 5.1%Class B5.2 to 5.8%Class C5.9 to 6.8%avg 5.38%debt 6.38%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Matthews, Oct 29 [6] [3]

Denver vs. National Fundamentals

Denver rents fell 2.3% year over year in Q3 while U.S. asking rents rose 2.3% [6] [2]. Vacancy: 5.9% vs 8.6% [6] [2].
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Denver-0.4%U.S.+2.3%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Denver10.6%U.S.8.6%
DenverUnited States
Sources: ALN, Oct 31; Matthews, Oct 29; Cushman & Wakefield, Oct 14 [6] [2] [1] [22] [23]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Denver

Denver absorbed 1,819 units in Q3 against 2,292 completions as the pipeline shrank to 15,052 units [6].
MetricNationalDenverRead-through
Deliveries250K+ year to date through Q3, down 25% year over year [2]2,292 units completed in Q3 [6]2024 record: 18,558 units [25]
Under constructionFewer than 480K units underway, lowest nominal level since 2015 [2]15,052 units, 4.1% of inventory [6]Well below the 10.02% of inventory peak in Q4 2022 [25]
Absorption vs. deliveriesNearly 350K absorbed year to date, up 14% year over year [2]1,819 absorbed vs 2,292 delivered, Q3 [6]Absorption up 58% YoY [25]
2026 outlookVacancy down more than 90 basis points from Q4 2025 peak [2]Conventional absorption of 15,222 units topped the 6,024 added over 12 months [1]Cap rate averaged 5.38% in Q3 [6]
Supply pressure by submarket70% of tracked markets have smaller pipelines than a year ago [2]Highlands Ranch/Littleton has 9.7% of stock under construction [6]Downtown/Highlands vacancy 5.1% vs 5.9% marketwide [6]
Price trend$228,777 per unit, flat from a year ago [24]$259,956 per unit in Q2, down 16.9% from the 2022 peak [25]Repricing continues ahead of the rent recovery

Denver Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Oct 2026 [26]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [27]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [28]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep
Census BPS [29]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Aurora$1,517-2.0%405286-6%
Broomfield$1,958-1.8%88019-97%
Castle Rock$1,634-2.2%00None in 2025 or 2026
Commerce City$2,430-1.1%4435-98%
Englewood$1,405-3.8%420-100%
Lakewood$1,599-1.6%00None in 2025 or 2026
Littleton$1,559-0.2%1,003422-44%
Lone Tree$1,871-3.9%4038+27%
Northglenn$1,523-3.7%00None in 2025 or 2026
Parker$1,859-3.2%8130-100%
Thornton$1,752-0.6%00None in 2025 or 2026

Denver Transactions and Deal Flow

Denver deal flow stayed active through October. JLL arranged $333.3 million in bridge financing for Palomino Park, a 1,184-unit portfolio in Highlands Ranch [14], and RedPeak bought the 101-unit Manchester in Cheesman Park, the property's first sale since 1973 [15]. Those follow September's $86 million Griffis Union Station agency loan [30] and the $76.6 million Edison at RiNo sale [31]. Lenders and buyers keep committing capital to Denver-area apartments.

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Palomino Park portfolio [14]Highlands Ranch, 12 miles south of Denver [14]1,184 across three communities [14]Greystar floating-rate bridge loan arranged by JLL Capital Markets; borrower undisclosed [14]$333.3M refinancing [14]Oct 27 [14]
Griffis Union Station [30]Union Station area, Denver [30]400 [30]Griffis Residential; five-year senior agency loan arranged by JLL Capital Markets [30]$86M financing [30]Sep 30 [30]
Edison at RiNo [31]River North Arts District, Denver [31]277 [31]Carmel Partners; seller Clarion [31]$76.6M [31]Sep 28 [31]
The Manchester [15]Cheesman Park, Denver [15]101 [15]RedPeak; first sale since 1973, seller undisclosed [15]UndisclosedOct 23 [15]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [3]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [5] [4]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [9]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [32].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [3]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [32]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [32]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)6.23-6.38%BWE, Oct 26 [3]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.95-6.35% / 5.98-6.38% / 6.01-6.41%BWE, Oct 26 [3]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x6.18-6.33% / 6.19-6.34% / 6.10-6.25%BWE, Oct 26 [3]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [33]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed , Oct 1 (Estimated)
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 (Estimated)
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [34]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.24%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29 [10]
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [32] [3] [33] [34] [10] [35] [36]

Colorado

The Census Bureau puts metro Denver population growth at 0.4% in 2025, to 3,092,037 residents as of July 1, 2025 [13]. The operating change owners are reacting to is state landlord-tenant law: a security deposit cap effective Jan 1 and state enforcement and receivership powers in effect since Aug 6, 2025 [16] [17].

Colorado job growth, 2025
2026 forecast
0.6%
About 17,500 jobs
CU Leeds [37]
Metro population, 2025
+0.4%
2025 metro estimate; 3.09M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [13]
2026 landlord laws
In effect
Deposit cap Jan 1; receivership since Aug 2025
Colorado General Assembly, Jun 3 [16] [17]

Colorado Job Growth

Annual Colorado job growth, actual and forecast, with the Texas 2026 forecast for comparison.
0%1%2%Colorado 2024 fcst1.2%Colorado 20250.4%Colorado 2026 fcst0.6%
Sources: CU Leeds School of Business / Dallas Fed, Oct 19 [37] [38] [39] [40]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Denver net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceHail and wildfire exposure keep Colorado premiums among the fastest-rising in the WestModel renewals at double-digit increases
Property tax2026 is an intervening year: values based on the period ending June 30, 2024 and generally flat [41]Next revaluation 2027; post-Gallagher split assessment rates
Population and migrationMetro 3,092,037 residents on July 1, 2025, up 0.4% from 2024 [13]Growth now well below the pace earlier this decade
RegulationHB25-1249 deposit cap effective Jan 1 [16]; SB25-020 enforcement and receivership powers effective Aug 6, 2025 [17]Added compliance cost and enforcement risk for owners
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Phoenix vacancy 11.3%, rents -2.2%; Seattle vacancy 6.7%; DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% [42]Denver has the weakest rents and the strongest quarterly absorption of the group [42]

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [11]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [5], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [43]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [8]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [12].

10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Oct 30. Down from 5.24% on Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [5] [4]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Held Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote
Federal Reserve, Oct 28 [11] [44]
SOFR
3.95%
Oct 30. Up from 3.87% on Oct 1
New York Fed, Oct 30 [9]
Next Fed Meeting
Dec 9
Futures price about a 75% chance of a hike
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Nov 1 [12]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.6%
Jul CPI 3.4%. Sep PCE 3.6% (core 3.1%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Oct 29 [7] [8]

The Rate Stack: How a Denver Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the policy rate to what a borrower pays: Fed midpoint 3.875% [44], Treasury 4.94% Oct 30 [5], agency 6.38% Oct 26.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.07%+1.44% spread10-year Treasury 4.94%Agency 5-year 6.38%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Oct 28; U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Capital Markets, Oct 26 [44] [5] [3]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The 30-year mortgage sits 2.30 points over the 10-year Treasury, above the 1980 to date average of 1.84 points [10] [5].
10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Daily close, Oct 30
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [5]
30-Year Mortgage
7.24%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29
Freddie Mac, Oct 29 [10]
Spread, latest month
2.30 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 29; Treasury, Oct 30 [10] [5]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [5] [10] [45]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [5], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [18], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [19] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [20]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [11], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [21]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States4.94%United Kingdom4.91%Germany3.31%Japan2.82%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [5] [18] [19] [20]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Denver cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Nov 2 [21]Keeps global yields anchored higher and funding costs elevated
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 30 [18]Gilt yields at 4.9062% on Oct 29, an inflation worry [18]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.25%, held Oct 31 [46]. JGB 10-year 2.817% on Oct 30 [20]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Hormuz supply risk (Estimated)Energy prices feed into inflation and the Fed's policy posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date (Estimated)A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: ECB, Nov 2; Bank of England, Oct 30; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [21] [18] [20] [46] [47] [48]

Sources

Show the 48 sources cited in this edition
  1. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Denver, October 2026
  2. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  3. BWE: RHS 538 GRRHP Property types Affordable housing Build-to-rent Hospitality Industrial Manufactured housi
  4. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  5. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  6. Matthews: Denver, CO Multifamily Market Report Q3 2026
  7. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  8. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026
  9. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  10. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  11. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026
  12. CNBC: 3 big things were watching in the stock market this week
  13. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  14. REBusiness: JLL Arranges $333.3M Refinancing for 1,184-Unit Multifamily Portfolio Near Denver
  15. REBusiness: RedPeak Acquires 101-Unit Manchester Apartments in Denver
  16. leg.colorado.gov: HB25-1249 Tenant Security Deposit Protections
  17. leg.colorado.gov: SB25-020 Tenant and Landlord Law Enforcement
  18. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  19. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  20. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  21. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  22. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Dallas/Fort Worth Multifamily Q3 2026
  23. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Dallas-Fort Worth, October 2026
  24. realpage.com: Largest transactions 3rd quarter 2026
  25. Matthews: Denver, CO Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  26. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Oct 2026
  27. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Oct 2026
  28. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  29. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  30. REBusiness: Griffis Residential Receives $86M in Financing for Denver Apartment Community
  31. Connect CRE: Carmel Picks Up Second Denver Rental Asset This Month
  32. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  33. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  34. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  35. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  36. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  37. CU Leeds School of Business: Colorado's economic forecast 2026
  38. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas employment forecast strengthens (Jul 17, 2026)
  39. Dallas Fed: Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens
  40. Dallas Fed: Texas Employment Forecast
  41. Colorado Division of Property Taxation: Understanding property taxes in Colorado
  42. Kidder Mathews: Phoenix Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  43. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates
  44. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  45. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  46. Trading Economics: News Summary Stats Forecast Alerts Actual 2.7720 Daily Change 0.002% Monthly -0.33% Yearly 1.
  47. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  48. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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