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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
Houston MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Houston entered 2026 still absorbing its supply wave: Q1 vacancy was 11.9%, with the year-over-year increase running at 190 basis points [1].
  • The Fed's target range stood at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 30 after a hold on Oct 28, keeping borrowing costs elevated all year [2] [3].
  • The 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1 before easing to 4.94% on Oct 30 [4] [5].
  • Agency 5-year fixed debt stood at 6.38% on Oct 26, keeping refinance math tight for owners with near-term maturities [6].
  • Texas hiring cooled through the year: 1.9% annualized job growth in H1 gave way to a September payroll decline [7] [8].

Where We Are Now

  • Conventional occupancy was 88.3% in October, up 0.6% from a year ago, while effective rent of $1,330 was down just 0.3% [9].
  • Q3 absorption of 3,300 units lifted the year-to-date total past 9,800, up 68.4% from a year ago [1].
  • Units under construction fell to 11,500, down 26.0% from Q2 and 37.0% from a year ago [1].
  • Vacancy was 11.7% in Q3, below Q1's 11.9%, and 23 of 28 submarkets posted positive year-to-date absorption [1].
  • Inflation remains above target: September PCE ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [10].
  • SOFR is 3.95% on Oct 30, the 30-year mortgage is 7.24% for the week of Oct 29, and agency 5-year debt is 6.38% on Oct 26 [11] [12] [6].

Where We're Headed

  • Futures price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 Fed meeting, so relief on debt costs is not the base case [13].
  • 2027 completions are forecast near 5,600 units, the lowest in nearly 15 years [14].
  • Absorption topped deliveries for a third straight quarter; vacancy should keep easing into 2027 if demand holds [1].
  • The Dallas Fed cut 2026 Texas job growth to 0.9% on Oct 19; slower state hiring tempers Houston's demand tailwind [8].
  • Deal flow stayed active into late October: a $110 million Stafford refinancing plus the Resia Ten Oaks and Toscana Parkway acquisitions [15] [16] [17].

What It Means for Houston

  1. Refinance math stays tight. The Fed held 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 and futures price a possible Dec 9 hike; Houston owners facing maturities should model agency 5-year debt at 6.38% from Oct 26, not cuts [3] [13] [6].
  2. Houston fundamentals keep improving. Conventional occupancy reached 88.3% in October, up 0.6% year over year, while effective rent of $1,330 was down just 0.3%; Q3 absorption of 3,300 units pushed the year-to-date total past 9,800 [9] [1].
  3. Supply is Houston's tailwind. Units under construction fell 37.0% from a year ago to 11,500, and 2027 completions are forecast near 5,600, the lowest in nearly 15 years, so vacancy should keep easing if demand holds [1] [14].
  4. Deals are clearing again. Late-October activity included a $110 million refinancing of two Stafford communities totaling 731 units, the 573-unit Resia Ten Oaks sale and American Landmark's 292-unit Toscana Parkway purchase [15] [16] [17].
  5. Texas growth is cooling. Texas payrolls fell in September, pulling year-to-date job growth to 0.8%, and the Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19; slower state hiring tempers Houston's absorption recovery [8].
  6. National rates set Houston's floor. The Fed held on Oct 28, the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 and U.S. vacancy fell to 8.6% in Q3; for Houston, firm national demand helps, but borrowing costs stay high [3] [5] [18].
  7. Global yields reach Houston too. The U.S. 10-year was 4.94% on Oct 30 while the UK gilt was 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2 and Japan 2.817% on Oct 30; lower global yields ease pressure on Houston debt costs [5] [19] [20] [21].

Houston Multifamily

Houston's apartment market is stabilizing. Conventional occupancy held at 88.3% in October, up 0.6% from a year ago, while effective rent of $1,330 was down just 0.3% [9]. Third-quarter absorption of 3,300 units lifted the year-to-date total past 9,800, up 68.4% from a year ago, and units under construction fell 37.0% to 11,500 [1]. About 5,600 units are forecast to deliver in 2027, the lowest in nearly 15 years [14].

Average cap rate
5.6%
Estimated
Estimate
Rent growth
-0.3%
Effective rent, October 2026
ALN, Oct 31 [9]
Occupancy (conventional)
88.3%
October 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Oct 31 [9]
Population growth
+1.6%
2025 metro estimate; 7.90M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [22]

Houston Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

As published in the October 2026 issue; no newer figures were found. Estimated class bands set around the 5.6% average (Apartment Loan Store, Sep 4); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Houston estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.9 to 5.3%Class B5.4 to 6.0%Class C6.1 to 7.0%avg 5.6%debt 6.07%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Apartment Loan Store, Sep 4 [53] [32]

Houston vs. National Fundamentals

Houston rents fell 2.5% in Q3 while U.S. asking rents rose 2.3%; vacancy was 11.7% locally versus 8.6% nationally [1] [18].
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Houston-0.3%U.S.+2.3%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Houston11.7%U.S.8.6%
HoustonUnited States
Sources: ALN, Oct 31; Cushman & Wakefield, Oct 26 and Oct 14 [1] [18] [9] [23] [24]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Houston

Units under construction fell 37.0% from a year ago, and 2027 completions are forecast near a 15-year low [1] [14].
MetricNationalHouston [1]Read-through
Deliveries250K+ year to date through Q3, down 25% year over year [18]4,500+ units in Q32027 forecast about 5,600 units, lowest in nearly 15 years [14]
Under constructionFewer than 480K units underway, lowest nominal level since 2015 [18]11,500 units, down 26.0% from Q2 and 37.0% from a year agoPermitting remains light [14]
Absorption vs. deliveriesNearly 350K absorbed year to date, up 14% year over year [18]9,800+ absorbed year to date, up 68.4% from a year ago; Q3 alone 3,300Absorption topped deliveries for a third straight quarter [1]
2026 vacancy forecastVacancy down more than 90 basis points from Q4 2025 peak [18]11.7% in Q3, below Q1's 11.9%Year-over-year increase narrowed to 80 bp from 190 bp in Q1 [1]
Supply pressure by submarket23 of 28 submarkets posted positive year-to-date absorptionDowntown vacancy fell 430 bp from a year ago [1]
Rent trend by submarket, year over yearFour submarkets posted positive annual rent growth, up from one in Q1Neartown River Oaks among those turning positive [1]

Houston Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Oct 2026 [25]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [26]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [27]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep
Census BPS [28]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Baytown$1,282-6.2%00None in 2025 or 2026
Conroe$1,242-2.2%60-100%
Houston$1,265-2.2%4,9882,541-32%
Pasadena$1,261-1.7%00None in 2025 or 2026
Texas City$1,253-1.4%00None in 2025 or 2026
Webster$1,324+0.1%00None in 2025 or 2026

Houston Transactions and Deal Flow

Houston deal flow stayed active into late October. Walker & Dunlop arranged a $110 million refinancing of two Stafford communities totaling 731 units [15], and a partnership bought the 573-unit Resia Ten Oaks in West Houston [16]. Developers stayed busy with Park Row and Artis Montrose [29][30], while American Landmark added Toscana Parkway [17].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
1879 at the Grid and Arc at the Grid [15]Stafford [15]731 [15]Walker & Dunlop arranged the loan; owner undisclosed [15]$110 million refinancing [15]Oct 15 [15]
Resia Ten Oaks [16]West Houston [16]573 [16]Spirit Investment Partners and Strategic Value Partners partnership; 2024 build [16]Undisclosed [16]Oct 1 [16]
Park Row [29]Energy Corridor [29]360 [29]OHT Partners; broke ground on a 14-acre site at 14192 Park Row Blvd. [29]Development [29]Sep 21 [29]
Artis Montrose [30]Montrose [30]330 [30]Southeastern; topped out, a conversion of the former Disco Kroger site [30]Development [30]Sep 3 [30]
Toscana Parkway [17]Southeast Houston [17]292 [17]American Landmark; built 2009 [17]Undisclosed [17]Oct 13 [17]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [6]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [5] [4]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [11]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [31].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [6]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [31]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [31]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)6.23-6.38%BWE, Oct 26 [6]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.95-6.35% / 5.98-6.38% / 6.01-6.41%BWE, Oct 26 [6]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x6.18-6.33% / 6.19-6.34% / 6.10-6.25%BWE, Oct 26 [6]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [32]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed , Oct 1 (Estimated)
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 (Estimated)
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [33]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.24%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29 [12]
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [31] [6] [32] [33] [12] [34] [35]

Texas

Texas lost momentum in the third quarter. Payrolls fell in September, pulling year-to-date job growth to 0.8%, well below the state's 2% long-run average [8]. The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19, from 1.7% in August [8]. Manufacturing wage pressure also reversed, with the Dallas Fed index falling to 20.8 in October from 27.4 [36]. Slower state hiring tempers the demand tailwind behind DFW's absorption recovery.

Texas job growth, H1 2026
1.9% annualized
Year to date through Sep: 0.8%
Dallas Fed, Aug 17 and Oct 19 [7] [8]
2026 employment forecast
0.9%
Cut Oct 19 from 1.7%. Range 0.6 to 1.2%
Dallas Fed, Oct 19 [8]
Manufacturing wage index
20.8
Oct reading, down from 27.4 in Sep
Dallas Fed, Oct 26 [36]
Labor supply
Tightening
Unemployment 4.4% in Sep, unchanged from Aug
Dallas Fed, Oct 19 [8]

Texas Job Growth vs. Long-Run Average

Annualized job growth versus the state's 2% long-run average. Hover bars.
0%1%2%Long-run avg2%H1 20261.9%2026 YTD0.8%2026 fcst0.9%
Sources: Dallas Fed, Aug 17 and Oct 19 [8] [7]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Houston net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceTexas FAIR Plan residential rate changes took effect Sep 1; the plan does not cover commercial multifamily properties [37]First renewals at new rates land this quarter; apartment policies price separately
Property taxResidential rate changes took effect September 1, 2026; FAIR Plan does not cover commercial multifamily [37]Milder than Dallas (+19.6%) and Tarrant (+23.8%) (Estimated)
Population and migrationMetro added about 127K residents in the year to Jul 1 2025, reaching 7.9M, up 1.6% [22]Core demand driver for apartment absorption
Energy sectorBrent $96.02 and WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 versus 21.6 million before the conflict [39]Supports Houston and Permian energy jobs
Peer metros (Q2 2026)DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% YoY, vacancy 7 to 12.2% . Austin rents +1.3% in Q2, first gain since 2022 . San Antonio occupancy 93.1% [42] [43] [44] [45]Texas metros are stabilizing as supply pipelines shrink
Sources: Census Bureau, Jul 1 2025; Northmarq, Aug 19 [37] [38] [22] [39] [40] [14] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45]

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [3]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [5], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [46]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [10]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [13].

10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Oct 30. Down from 5.24% on Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [5] [4]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Held Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote
Federal Reserve, Oct 28 [3] [2]
SOFR
3.95%
Oct 30. Up from 3.87% on Oct 1
New York Fed, Oct 30 [11]
Next Fed Meeting
Dec 9
Futures price about a 75% chance of a hike
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Nov 1 [13]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.6%
Jul CPI 3.4%. Sep PCE 3.6% (core 3.1%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Oct 29 [47] [10]

The Rate Stack: How a Houston Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the policy rate to what a borrower pays: Fed midpoint 3.875% [2], Treasury 4.94% Oct 30 [5], agency 6.38% Oct 26.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.07%+1.44% spread10-year Treasury 4.94%Agency 5-year 6.38%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Oct 28; U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Capital Markets, Oct 26 [2] [5] [6]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The 30-year mortgage sits 2.30 points over the 10-year Treasury, above the 1980 to date average of 1.84 points [12] [5].
10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Daily close, Oct 30
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [5]
30-Year Mortgage
7.24%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29
Freddie Mac, Oct 29 [12]
Spread, latest month
2.30 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 29; Treasury, Oct 30 [12] [5]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [5] [12] [48]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [5], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [19], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [20] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [21]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [3], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [49]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States4.94%United Kingdom4.91%Germany3.31%Japan2.82%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [5] [19] [20] [21]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Houston cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Nov 2 [49]Keeps global yields anchored higher and funding costs elevated
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 30 [19]Gilt yields at 4.9062% on Oct 29, an inflation worry [19]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.25%, held Oct 31 [50]. JGB 10-year 2.817% on Oct 30 [21]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Hormuz supply risk (Estimated)Energy prices feed into inflation and the Fed's policy posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date (Estimated)A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: ECB, Nov 2; Bank of England, Oct 30; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [49] [19] [21] [50] [51] [52]

Sources

Show the 53 sources cited in this edition
  1. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Houston Multifamily Q3 2026
  2. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  3. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026
  4. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  5. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  6. BWE: RHS 538 GRRHP Property types Affordable housing Build-to-rent Hospitality Industrial Manufactured housi
  7. Dallas Fed: Momentum builds in the Texas economy; wage pressures broaden
  8. Dallas Fed: Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast weakens
  9. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Houston, October 2026
  10. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026
  11. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  12. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  13. CNBC: 3 big things were watching in the stock market this week
  14. Northmarq: Houston Multifamily Market Insights
  15. REBusiness: Walker & Dunlop Arranges $110M Refinancing of Two Apartment Communities in Stafford, Texas
  16. REBusiness: Partnership Acquires 573-Unit Apartment Community in West Houston
  17. REBusiness: American Landmark Acquires 292-Unit Apartment Complex in Southeast Houston
  18. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  19. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  20. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  21. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  22. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  23. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Dallas/Fort Worth Multifamily Q3 2026
  24. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Dallas-Fort Worth, October 2026
  25. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Oct 2026
  26. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Oct 2026
  27. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, 2025 annual
  28. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, year to date through Sep 2026
  29. REBusiness: OHT Partners Breaks Ground on 360-Unit Multifamily Project in West Houston
  30. REBusiness: Southeastern Tops Out 330-Unit Multifamily Redevelopment Project in Houston
  31. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  32. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  33. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  34. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  35. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  36. Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
  37. Texas FAIR Plan: Texas FAIR Plan Association TFPA Approved Rate Changes and Annual Adjustment Updates
  38. Houston Chronicle: New 19-story student housing tower near Texas A&M
  39. EIA: Independent Statistics and Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Analysis & Projections Short-Term Ene
  40. Matthews: Dallas-Fort Worth, TX Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  41. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Dallas/Fort Worth Multifamily Q2 2026
  42. CRE Daily: Dallas Multifamily Rents Slide in 2026
  43. Colliers: DFW Multifamily Market Report 2026 Q1
  44. CRE Daily: Austin multifamily rents rise as supply glut starts to ease
  45. Colliers: San Antonio Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  46. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates
  47. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  48. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  49. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  50. Trading Economics: News Summary Stats Forecast Alerts Actual 2.7720 Daily Change 0.002% Monthly -0.33% Yearly 1.
  51. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  52. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
  53. Apartment Loan Store: Cap Rates in Houston, Texas
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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