NVest AnalyticsNVest Analytics
Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
Miami MSA. Multifamily
Get this monthly report by email.
Receive the current Miami edition now and one report each month. Unsubscribe or change markets any time.

Request a monthly report for another market

Tell us the metro area. If there is enough interest we will add it as a standing monthly edition.

More markets are added as readers request them.

The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • A delivery wave and slowing migration flattened rents after the 2021 to 2022 run-up; trailing 12-month absorption reached 8,950 conventional units through October [1].
  • Nationally, construction fell below 480,000 units in Q3 2026, the lowest nominal level since 2015, with deliveries down 25% year to date [2].
  • Agency 5-year fixed quoted 6.38% on Oct 26 while the 10-year Treasury ended October at 4.94% on Oct 30 [3] [4].
  • The Fed's target range stands at 3.75 to 4.00% after policymakers held on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [5] [6].
  • Miami pricing stayed rich through the shift: cap rates near 5.0% at $325,921 per unit, up 15.7% year over year in Q1 [7].

Where We Are Now

  • Conventional occupancy reached 88.4% at the end of October, up 3.9% year over year, and effective rent rose 1.7% to $2,655 [1].
  • Asking rent gained 2.4% to $2,734, though 31% of conventional properties still offer concessions [1].
  • Submarkets diverge sharply: Miami Beach effective rent rose 22.5% to $3,529 while Central Miami gained just 0.8% to $3,105 [1].
  • Metro population slipped 0.1% to 6,391,072 in 2025, leaving demand growth dependent on absorbing the existing pipeline [8].
  • Inflation is still above target: September PCE ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core, and SOFR stood at 3.95% on Oct 30 [9] [10].
  • Pricing gap: cap rates near 5.0% against agency 5-year debt at 6.38% on Oct 26, roughly 138 basis points of negative leverage [7] [3].

Where We're Headed

  • Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Fed's Dec 9 meeting [11].
  • The 10-year Treasury at 4.94% on Oct 30 keeps agency 5-year fixed rates near the 6.38% Oct 26 quote, holding refinancing costs elevated into 2027 [4] [3].
  • Absorption of 8,950 conventional units through October keeps lease-up pressure manageable while national deliveries fall 25% year to date [1] [2].
  • Metro population edged down 0.1% to 6,391,072 in 2025, so Miami demand growth now depends on absorbing existing renters [8].
  • Costs are easing: Florida commercial property premiums fell 16.6% year over year through Q1 2026, and Miami-Dade taxable value growth slowed to 5.5% [12] [13].

What It Means for Miami

  1. Refinance math still works against Miami owners. Agency 5-year debt quoted 6.38% on Oct 26 against cap rates near 5.0%, roughly 138 basis points of negative leverage. Owners with 2026 or 2027 maturities should model refinancing near current quotes [3] [7].
  2. Priced for growth that is slowing. Cap rates near 5.0% and $325,921 per unit, up 15.7% year over year in Q1, sit against a metro population that slipped 0.1% to 6,391,072 in 2025 [7] [8].
  3. Occupancy is tightening despite heavy supply. Conventional occupancy reached 88.4% at the end of October, up 3.9% year over year, with 8,950 units absorbed over 12 months. Demand remains firm while national supply cools [1] [2].
  4. Deals are clearing at reset prices. Walker & Dunlop arranged a $238 million refinancing for the 631-unit Landmark South in Doral, and Blue Rock Partners bought the 309-unit Pinebrook Apartments for $37.3 million. Financing remains available for well-located assets [14] [15].
  5. Florida costs ease for Miami owners. Florida commercial property premiums fell 16.6% through Q1 2026 and Miami-Dade taxable value growth slowed to 5.5%, while flat population limits Miami rent momentum [12] [13] [16].
  6. National rates set Miami's floor. The Fed held 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28, the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30, and futures price a 75% chance of a Dec 9 hike. Miami borrowing costs stay elevated [5] [4] [11].
  7. Global yields still pressure Miami loans. The UK gilt yielded 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2 and Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, with the ECB deposit rate at 2.50% on Nov 2. Higher global yields feed into U.S. borrowing costs, including Miami mortgages [17] [18] [19] [20].

Miami Multifamily

Miami conventional apartments kept tightening in October: occupancy reached 88.4%, up 3.9% year over year, and effective rent rose 1.7% to $2,655 [1]. Renters absorbed 8,950 units over the past 12 months, well ahead of the delivery pace [1]. Asking rent gained 2.4% to $2,734, though 31% of properties still offer concessions [1]. The metro population slipped 0.1% to 6,391,072 in 2025 [8].

Average cap rate
~5.0%
Estimated
Estimate
Rent growth
+1.7%
Effective rent, October 2026
ALN, Oct 31 [1]
Occupancy (conventional)
88.4%
October 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Oct 31 [1]
Population growth
-0.1%
2025 metro estimate; 6.39M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [8]

Miami Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5% average (Colliers South Florida, Sep 4); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Miami estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.3 to 4.7%Class B4.8 to 5.4%Class C5.5 to 6.4%avg 5%debt 6.38%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Colliers South Florida, Sep 4 [7] [3]

Miami vs. National Fundamentals

Miami conventional effective rent rose 1.7% in October; national asking rent rose 2.3% in Q3. [1] [2]
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Miami+1.7%U.S.+2.3%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Miami11.6%U.S.8.6%
MiamiUnited States
Sources: ALN, Oct 31; Cushman & Wakefield, Oct 14 [1] [2] [21] [22]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Miami

Miami absorbed 8,950 conventional units over 12 months through October; national deliveries fell 25% year to date. [1] [2]
MetricNationalMiamiRead-through
Deliveries250K+ year to date through Q3, down 25% year over year [2]2,649 units through April, 0.7% of stock [25]Miami running slightly above the national pace [23]
Under constructionFewer than 480K units underway, lowest nominal level since 2015 [2]15,481 units, 7.3% of inventory (Estimated)Fewer than 480,000 units underway in Q3 2026, lowest nominal level since 2015 [2]
Absorption vs. deliveriesNearly 350K absorbed year to date, up 14% year over year [2]8,950 absorbed, trailing 12 months [1]Demand running ahead of new supply [1]
2026 outlookVacancy down more than 90 basis points from Q4 2025 peak [2]Supply relief hopes fading; sales slowing [26]Roughly 250,000 deliveries January-September 2026, down 25%; fewer than 480,000 underway in Q3 2026 [2]
Supply pressure by submarketMiami Beach effective rent +22.5% YoY ($3,529); Central Miami +0.8% ($3,105) [1]Coastal submarkets diverging sharply from the urban core [1]
Price trendApartment prices down 4.6% YoY through September [24]$325,921 per unit, +15.7% YoY (Colliers Q1) [7]Priced for growth

Miami Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Oct 2026 [27]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [28]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [29]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep
Census BPS [30]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Boca Raton$2,423+1.3%00None in 2025 or 2026
Boynton Beach$1,917+1.7%392707+140%
Coral Springs$1,966+4.6%00None in 2025 or 2026
Fort Lauderdale$1,859-1.2%1,052359-54%
Hialeah$1,697-0.6%1,039366-53%
Hollywood$1,507-2.1%00None in 2025 or 2026
Miami$1,913+0.1%6,8634,098-20%
Miami Beach$1,792+1.0%110-100%
Pembroke Pines$1,875+0.8%00None in 2025 or 2026
Plantation$2,097+0.4%8297+49x
Sunrise$1,954-0.1%030New: 30 units vs none in 2025
West Palm Beach$1,809+3.5%0415New: 415 units vs none in 2025

Miami Transactions and Deal Flow

South Florida deal flow mixed big financings with new supply milestones. Walker & Dunlop arranged a $238 million refinancing for the 631-unit Landmark South in Doral [14], and Blue Rock Partners bought the 309-unit Pinebrook Apartments in Miami for $37.3 million [15]. On the development side, a public-private partnership broke ground on the 371-unit Ocean One in Boynton Beach [31], and BTI Partners opened the 362-unit Bread Building in Hollywood [32].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Ocean OneBoynton Beach371 [31]City of Boynton Beach partnership with Hyperion Group, Winter Properties, WREP and Silverstein Properties; groundbreaking [31]Development milestone; financing terms undisclosed [31]Oct 8 [31]
The Landmark SouthDoral631 [14]Walker & Dunlop arranged refinancing; owner undisclosed [14]$238M refinancing [14]Sep 30 [14]
Bread BuildingHollywood362 [32]BTI Partners opened the luxury tower on the former Hollywood Bread Co. site [32]Development milestone; cost undisclosed [32]Sep 28 [32]
Pinebrook ApartmentsMiami309 [15]Blue Rock Partners joint venture bought from Pinebrook South Ltd. [15]$37.3M [15]Oct 31 [15]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [3]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [4] [33]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [10]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [34].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [3]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [34]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [34]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)6.23-6.38%BWE, Oct 26 [3]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.95-6.35% / 5.98-6.38% / 6.01-6.41%BWE, Oct 26 [3]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x6.18-6.33% / 6.19-6.34% / 6.10-6.25%BWE, Oct 26 [3]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [35]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed , Oct 1 (Estimated)
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 (Estimated)
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [36]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.24%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29 [37]
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [34] [3] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39]

Florida

Florida's cost pressure is easing while Miami demand flattens: commercial property premiums fell 16.6% year over year through Q1 2026 [12], Miami-Dade taxable value rose 5.5% for 2026 [13], and metro population was 6,391,072 on Jul 1 2025, down 0.1% [16]. For owners, lower insurance and slower assessments help NOI, but flat population limits rent growth.

Florida job growth, 2025
1.2%
Slowed from prior years
UCF Winter 2026 Forecast [40]
2026 forecast
0.6 to 0.8%
UCF; averages 0.6% through 2029
UCF [40]
Unemployment path
3.8% to 4.3%
2025 to 2026 forecast
UCF [40]
Insurance premiums
-16.6%
Estimated
Estimate

Florida Job Growth

Florida cost relief now matters more than job growth for Miami apartment NOI. [12]
0%1%2%Florida 20251.2%Florida 2026 fcst0.8%U.S. 2026 fcst0.5%
Sources: FSResidential, Sep 4 [40] [41] [12] [42]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Miami net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceFirst relief after four years of increases [12]
Property taxMiami-Dade 2026 taxable value $540.7B, up 5.5%, 3.2 points slower than 2025 [13]Assessment growth is decelerating with the market [13]
Population and migrationMetro population 6,391,072 on Jul 1 2025, down 0.1% from 2024 [16]Demand growth has flattened [16]
Key sectorStatewide payrolls +1.2% in 2025; Central Florida expected to lead the state in 2026 [40]Miami growth now below the state average
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Miami is the highest-priced Sun Belt market with the flattest rents
Sources: FSResidential, Sep 4; Miami-Dade Property Appraiser; U.S. Census Bureau [12] [13] [16] [40] [43]

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [5]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [4], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [44]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [9]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [11].

10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Oct 30. Down from 5.24% on Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [4] [33]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Held Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote
Federal Reserve, Oct 28 [5] [6]
SOFR
3.95%
Oct 30. Up from 3.87% on Oct 1
New York Fed, Oct 30 [10]
Next Fed Meeting
Dec 9
Futures price about a 75% chance of a hike
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Nov 1 [11]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.6%
Jul CPI 3.4%. Sep PCE 3.6% (core 3.1%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Oct 29 [45] [9]

The Rate Stack: How a Miami Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the policy rate to what a borrower pays: Fed midpoint 3.875% [6], Treasury 4.94% Oct 30 [4], agency 6.38% Oct 26.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.07%+1.44% spread10-year Treasury 4.94%Agency 5-year 6.38%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Oct 28; U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Capital Markets, Oct 26 [6] [4] [3]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The 30-year mortgage sits 2.30 points over the 10-year Treasury, above the 1980 to date average of 1.84 points [37] [4].
10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Daily close, Oct 30
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [4]
30-Year Mortgage
7.24%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29
Freddie Mac, Oct 29 [37]
Spread, latest month
2.30 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 29; Treasury, Oct 30 [37] [4]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [4] [37] [46]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [4], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [17], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [18] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [19]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [5], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [20]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States4.94%United Kingdom4.91%Germany3.31%Japan2.82%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [4] [17] [18] [19]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Miami cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Nov 2 [20]Keeps global yields anchored higher and funding costs elevated
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 30 [17]Gilt yields at 4.9062% on Oct 29, an inflation worry [17]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.25%, held Oct 31 [47]. JGB 10-year 2.817% on Oct 30 [19]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Hormuz supply risk (Estimated)Energy prices feed into inflation and the Fed's policy posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date (Estimated)A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: ECB, Nov 2; Bank of England, Oct 30; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [20] [17] [19] [47] [48] [49]

Sources

Show the 49 sources cited in this edition
  1. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Miami, October 2026
  2. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  3. BWE: RHS 538 GRRHP Property types Affordable housing Build-to-rent Hospitality Industrial Manufactured housi
  4. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  5. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026
  6. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  7. Colliers: South Florida Multifamily Market Report Q1 2026
  8. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  9. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026
  10. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  11. CNBC: 3 big things were watching in the stock market this week
  12. FirstService Residential: Florida condo and association insurance costs 2026
  13. Miami-Dade Property Appraiser: 2026 estimated taxable values
  14. REBusiness: Walker & Dunlop Arranges $238M Refinancing for Landmark South Apartments in Doral, Florida
  15. REBusiness: Joint Venture Purchases Multifamily Community in Miami for $37.3M
  16. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  17. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  18. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  19. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  20. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  21. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Dallas/Fort Worth Multifamily Q3 2026
  22. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Dallas-Fort Worth, October 2026
  23. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  24. msci.com: Rca commercial property price indexes rca cppi
  25. Yardi Matrix: Miami Multifamily Market Report
  26. Bisnow: Miami multifamily nose-dives as hopes for supply relief fade
  27. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Oct 2026
  28. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Oct 2026
  29. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, 2025 annual
  30. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, year to date through Sep 2026
  31. REBusiness: Public-Private Partnership Breaks Ground on 371-Unit Apartment Community in Boynton Beach, Florida
  32. REBusiness: BTI Partners Opens 362-Unit Residential Tower in Hollywood, Florida
  33. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  34. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  35. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  36. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  37. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  38. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  39. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  40. UCF Institute for Economic Forecasting: Florida and Metro Forecast, Winter 2026
  41. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas employment forecast strengthens (Jul 17, 2026)
  42. Dallas Fed: Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens
  43. MMG Real Estate Advisors: Atlanta Q2 2026 Market Report
  44. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates
  45. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  46. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  47. Trading Economics: News Summary Stats Forecast Alerts Actual 2.7720 Daily Change 0.002% Monthly -0.33% Yearly 1.
  48. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  49. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
Privacy. If you open this report from our email, its link carries a private subscriber code, so your rating, comments and reading are linked to your subscription; otherwise the feedback bar and subscription form are anonymous unless you choose to enter an email. We store a first-party browser identifier, the issue you rated, your rating, optional comments, scroll depth and time on page, and a coarse referrer category (search, social, email, direct). We do not store IP addresses; a short-lived one-way hash is used only to limit abuse and is discarded daily. Subscriber emails are held in a mailing list separate from any product waitlist, are used only to send and improve this report, and are never sold or shared.
You rated this edition. Update my rating