NVest AnalyticsNVest Analytics
Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
Seattle MSA. Multifamily
Get this monthly report by email.
Receive the current Seattle edition now and one report each month. Unsubscribe or change markets any time.

Request a monthly report for another market

Tell us the metro area. If there is enough interest we will add it as a standing monthly edition.

More markets are added as readers request them.

The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • The 2025 delivery boom left a hangover: 1,770 units delivered year to date through Q2 while 15,276 remained under construction [1].
  • Demand held up better than payrolls: conventional absorption totaled 7,131 units over 12 months, outpacing new supply [2].
  • The rate backdrop tightened then eased: the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.24% on Oct 1 before falling to 4.94% on Oct 30 [3] [4].
  • SOFR rose from 3.87% on Oct 1 to 3.95% on Oct 30, and the Fed held its 3.75 to 4.00% target range on Oct 28 [5] [6].
  • Washington's 2026 job forecast was cut to 0.1% in June, then revised up to 0.2% in September, while metro population grew 1.0% to 4,161,883 [7] [8].

Where We Are Now

  • Seattle conventional occupancy reached 91.8% in October, up 0.9 points from a year ago, while effective rent slipped 0.3% to $2,160 and 32% of properties offered concessions [2].
  • Nationally, vacancy fell to 8.6% in the third quarter as asking rents rose 2.3% [9].
  • The average cap rate is 5.7%, about 68 basis points below the 6.38% agency 5-year fixed quote from Oct 26, so leverage remains negative [10] [11].
  • Supply is lighter but not finished: 1,770 units delivered through Q2, 15,276 under construction, and 7,131 absorbed over 12 months [1] [2].
  • Jobs remain the drag: Washington unemployment was 4.8% in September, the Seattle area is losing about 550 jobs a month, and October brought layoffs from Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft and Zillow [12] [13].
  • Deals show pricing discipline: The Groves in Kent sold for $72 million, or $196,721 per unit, while Aperture on Fifth in Denny Triangle reached $304,245 per unit [14] [15].

Where We're Headed

  • The next Fed meeting is Dec 9, and futures price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike [16].
  • Agency 5-year fixed debt quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, still above a 5.7% Seattle cap rate [11] [10].
  • The next supply test is already visible: 15,276 units are under construction, with Denny Triangle, Overlake and Port Gardner carrying the largest projects [1] [17].
  • Population is doing the work payrolls used to: the metro added 43,068 residents, 1.0%, in the year to Jul 1 2025 [8].
  • Global yields eased but stay elevated: U.S. 4.94% on Oct 30, UK 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2, Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, ECB 2.50% on Nov 2 [4] [18] [19] [20] [21].

What It Means for Seattle

  1. Financing is still upside down. Seattle's 5.7% average cap rate sits about 68 basis points below the 6.38% agency 5-year fixed quote from Oct 26, so new debt only pencils with stronger rents or a lower basis [10] [11].
  2. Fundamentals are tightening slowly. Conventional occupancy reached 91.8% in October while effective rent slipped 0.3% to $2,160 and 32% of properties offered concessions; absorption of 7,131 units over 12 months still beat supply [2].
  3. Supply is down, not gone. Seattle delivered 1,770 units through Q2 and had 15,276 under construction; the near-term lull helps occupancy, but Denny Triangle, Overlake and Port Gardner still hold large projects [1] [17].
  4. Deals show pricing discipline. The Groves in Kent sold for $72 million, or $196,721 per unit, and Aperture on Fifth reached $304,245 per unit, while the 524-unit Griffis North Creek trade showed institutional appetite at an undisclosed price [14] [15] [22].
  5. Washington jobs set the ceiling. For Seattle, Washington's stalled labor market is the main check on rent growth: 2026 growth is forecast at 0.2%, the Seattle area is losing about 550 jobs a month, and population growth of 1.0% supports demand [7] [13] [8].
  6. National rates pressure Seattle. The Fed held 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28, the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30, and futures price about a 75% chance of a hike at the Dec 9 meeting, keeping Seattle refinancing costs elevated [6] [4] [16].
  7. Global yields reach Seattle loans. For Seattle borrowers, overseas yields still limit relief at home: the UK gilt was 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2 and Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, with the ECB deposit rate at 2.50% on Nov 2 [18] [19] [20] [21].

Seattle Multifamily

Seattle conventional occupancy held at 91.8% in October, up 0.9 points from a year ago, while effective rent slipped 0.3% to $2,160 and 32% of properties offered concessions [2]. Absorption of 7,131 units over the past year outpaced new supply [2]. Nationally, vacancy fell to 8.6% in the third quarter as asking rents rose 2.3% [9]. The drag is jobs: Washington unemployment was 4.8% in September [12], and forecasters see just 0.2% employment growth for 2026 [23].

Average cap rate
5.7%
Kidder Mathews Q2 2026 [10] [17]
Rent growth
-0.3%
Effective rent, October 2026
ALN, Oct 31 [2]
Occupancy (conventional)
91.8%
October 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Oct 31 [2]
Population growth
+1.0%
2025 metro estimate; 4.16M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [8]

Seattle Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5.7% average (Kidder Mathews, Sep 4); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Seattle estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A5.0 to 5.4%Class B5.5 to 6.1%Class C6.2 to 7.1%avg 5.7%debt 6.38%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Kidder Mathews, Sep 4 [10] [11]

Seattle vs. National Fundamentals

Seattle conventional effective rent fell 0.3% in October [2]; U.S. asking rents rose 2.3% and vacancy fell to 8.6% in Q3 [9].
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Seattle-0.6%U.S.-0.4%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Seattle7.8%U.S.7%
SeattleUnited States
Sources: ALN, Oct 31; Cushman & Wakefield, Oct 14 [2] [9]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Seattle

U.S. deliveries fell 25% year over year through the third quarter [9]; Seattle added 1,770 units through Q2 with 15,276 under construction [1].
MetricNationalSeattleRead-through
Deliveries250K+ year to date through Q3, down 25% year over year [9]Deliveries slowing from the 2025 peak
Under constructionFewer than 480K units underway, lowest nominal level since 2015 [9]Pipeline thinning as starts slow
Absorption vs. deliveriesNearly 350K absorbed year to date, up 14% year over year [9]7,131 absorbed, trailing 12 months, conventional [2]Demand outpacing new supply
2026 outlookVacancy down more than 90 basis points from Q4 2025 peak [9]Tighter supply supports occupancy
Supply pressure by submarketDenny Triangle, Overlake, Port Gardner (Everett) carry the largest projects [17]Lynnwood and Snohomish suburbs active for trades [17]
Price trendPricing held while cap rates edged up
Sources: Cushman & Wakefield, Oct 14; ALN, Oct 31; Kidder Mathews, Sep 4 [9] [1] [2] [17] [10]

Seattle Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Oct 2026 [24]
Rent, year over year
Apartment List [25]
MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [26]
MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep
Census BPS [27]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Auburn$1,568+1.7%00None in 2025 or 2026
Bellevue$2,391+1.2%2931,489+578%
Bothell$2,361+1.1%1430-100%
Federal Way$1,781+0.7%06New: 6 units vs none in 2025
Lakewood$1,515+2.3%38820-93%
Lynnwood$1,728-0.6%600-100%
Puyallup$1,837-0.8%3080-100%
Redmond$2,263+1.5%1,119598-29%
Renton$2,042+0.3%00None in 2025 or 2026
Seattle$2,073-2.1%3,0331,319-42%
Shoreline$1,899-2.5%11570+69x
Tacoma$1,675-1.2%557700+68%

Seattle Transactions and Deal Flow

Five conventional apartment sales were reported in the last 60 days. The largest disclosed price was FPA Multifamily's $72 million purchase of The Groves in Kent, or $196,721 per unit [14]. In Seattle proper, Aperture on Fifth sold for $32.2 million [15] and Northline in Bitter Lake sold for $17.7 million [28]. GID added the 524-unit Griffis North Creek in Bothell at an undisclosed price [22]. Institutional buyers remain active across price points in this market.

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
The Groves [14]Kent [14]366 [14]FPA Multifamily LLC; sold by RISE Properties (IPA) [14]$72M; $196,721 per unit [14]Oct 8 [14]
Aperture on Fifth [15]Denny Triangle [15]106 [15]Freestone Capital; sold by PrivatePortfolio Group (IPA) [15]$32.2M; $304,245 per unit [15]Sep 4 [15]
Northline [28]Bitter Lake [28]111 [28]FPA Multifamily; sold by Rise Properties Trust [28]$17.7M; $159,910 per unit [28]Oct 27 [28]
Griffis North Creek [22]Bothell [22]524 [22]GID; sold by Griffis Residential (IPA) [22]Undisclosed [22]Sep 29 [22]
The Court at Northgate [29]Pinehurst [29]132 [29]Cadence Real Estate Advisors; sold by private seller group [29]Undisclosed [29]Oct 14 [29]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [11]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [4] [3]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [5]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [30].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [11]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [30]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [30]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)6.23-6.38%BWE, Oct 26 [11]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.95-6.35% / 5.98-6.38% / 6.01-6.41%BWE, Oct 26 [11]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x6.18-6.33% / 6.19-6.34% / 6.10-6.25%BWE, Oct 26 [11]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [31]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed , Oct 1 (Estimated)
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 (Estimated)
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [32]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.24%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29 [33]
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [30] [11] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35]

Washington

Washington's labor market is stuck near zero. The September forecast puts 2026 state job growth at 0.2%, revised up from 0.1% in June, with 0.6% expected in 2027 [7]. The Seattle area is still losing about 550 jobs a month [13], and October brought fresh layoff announcements from Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft and Zillow [12]. Population growth of 1.0%, adding 43,068 residents in the year to Jul 1 2025, is doing the work payrolls used to [8].

Washington job growth, 2026 fcst
0.2%
Revised up from 0.1% in June
WA ERFC, Sep 25 [7]
2027 forecast
0.6%
September ERFC outlook for 2027
WA ERFC, Sep 25 [7]
Seattle area, 2026 pace
0.2% projected for 2026
erfc.wa.gov, Sep 30 [7]
Metro population
+1.0%
2025 metro estimate; 4.16M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [8]

Washington and Seattle Job Growth

Seattle 2025 -0.2%; Seattle 2026 -0.3%; WA 2026 fcst 0.2%; WA 2027 fcst 0.6%.
0%1%2%Seattle 2025-0.2%Seattle 2026-0.3%WA 2026 fcst0.2%WA 2027 fcst0.6%
Sources: WA ERFC, Sep 25 [7] [13]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Seattle net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceLower catastrophe exposure than the Sun Belt; earthquake cover is the local line itemModest premium pressure relative to Texas, Florida or California
Property taxKing County apartment assessed values flat to down since 2022; 2026 total roll up 5.39% [37]Appeals through the Board of Equalization; no state income tax
Population and migrationMetro +1.0% to 4,161,883 residents in the year to Jul 1 2025 [8]Demand support despite the jobs stall
Key sector1.0% decline expected in 2026 [7]improved near term; 1.0% decline in 2026 vs 3.3% decline in June forecast [7]
Peer metros (Q2 2026)DFW effective rents -1.0% YoY . Phoenix vacancy 11.6% . Denver vacancy 10.6%, asking rents -1.3% [36]Seattle sits mid-pack on vacancy with positive quarterly rent growth [36]

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [6]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [4], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [38]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [39]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [16].

10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Oct 30. Down from 5.24% on Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [4] [3]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Held Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote
Federal Reserve, Oct 28 [6] [40]
SOFR
3.95%
Oct 30. Up from 3.87% on Oct 1
New York Fed, Oct 30 [5]
Next Fed Meeting
Dec 9
Futures price about a 75% chance of a hike
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Nov 1 [16]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.6%
Jul CPI 3.4%. Sep PCE 3.6% (core 3.1%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Oct 29 [41] [39]

The Rate Stack: How a Seattle Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the policy rate to what a borrower pays: Fed midpoint 3.875% [40], Treasury 4.94% Oct 30 [4], agency 6.38% Oct 26.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.07%+1.44% spread10-year Treasury 4.94%Agency 5-year 6.38%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Oct 28; U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Capital Markets, Oct 26 [40] [4] [11]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The 30-year mortgage sits 2.30 points over the 10-year Treasury, above the 1980 to date average of 1.84 points [33] [4].
10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Daily close, Oct 30
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [4]
30-Year Mortgage
7.24%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29
Freddie Mac, Oct 29 [33]
Spread, latest month
2.30 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 29; Treasury, Oct 30 [33] [4]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [4] [33] [42]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [4], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [18], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [19] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [20]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [6], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [21]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States4.94%United Kingdom4.91%Germany3.31%Japan2.82%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [4] [18] [19] [20]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Seattle cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Nov 2 [21]Keeps global yields anchored higher and funding costs elevated
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 30 [18]Gilt yields at 4.9062% on Oct 29, an inflation worry [18]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.25%, held Oct 31 [43]. JGB 10-year 2.817% on Oct 30 [20]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Hormuz supply risk (Estimated)Energy prices feed into inflation and the Fed's policy posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date (Estimated)A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: ECB, Nov 2; Bank of England, Oct 30; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [21] [18] [20] [43] [44] [45]

Sources

Show the 45 sources cited in this edition
  1. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  2. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Seattle, October 2026
  3. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  4. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  5. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  6. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026
  7. erfc.wa.gov: Sep26pub
  8. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  9. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  10. Kidder Mathews: Seattle Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  11. BWE: RHS 538 GRRHP Property types Affordable housing Build-to-rent Hospitality Industrial Manufactured housi
  12. ofm.wa.gov: October 2026 Economic report
  13. USAFacts (BLS data): Jobs added in the Seattle area
  14. REBusiness: IPA Negotiates $72M Sale of Apartment Community in Kent, Washington
  15. REBusiness: Freestone Capital Acquires Aperture on Fifth Multifamily Community in Downtown Seattle for $32.2M
  16. CNBC: 3 big things were watching in the stock market this week
  17. Kidder Mathews: Q2 2026 Seattle and Puget Sound Apartment Market Dynamics
  18. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  19. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  20. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  21. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  22. REBusiness: GID Acquires 524-Unit Griffis North Creek Multifamily Community in Bothell, Washington
  23. erfc.wa.gov: Official website
  24. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Oct 2026
  25. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Oct 2026
  26. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  27. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  28. REBusiness: Rise Properties Trust Sells Northline Apartments in Seattle for $17.7M
  29. REBusiness: Cadence Real Estate Advisors Buys 132-Unit Apartment Property in Seattle
  30. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  31. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  32. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  33. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  34. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  35. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  36. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Dallas-Fort Worth, September 2026
  37. King County Assessor: 2026 statistical reports
  38. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates
  39. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026
  40. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  41. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  42. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  43. Trading Economics: News Summary Stats Forecast Alerts Actual 2.7720 Daily Change 0.002% Monthly -0.33% Yearly 1.
  44. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  45. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
Privacy. If you open this report from our email, its link carries a private subscriber code, so your rating, comments and reading are linked to your subscription; otherwise the feedback bar and subscription form are anonymous unless you choose to enter an email. We store a first-party browser identifier, the issue you rated, your rating, optional comments, scroll depth and time on page, and a coarse referrer category (search, social, email, direct). We do not store IP addresses; a short-lived one-way hash is used only to limit abuse and is discarded daily. Subscriber emails are held in a mailing list separate from any product waitlist, are used only to send and improve this report, and are never sold or shared.
You rated this edition. Update my rating